UEFA Champions League 2018/19: Group analysis after matchday 3

The first three rounds of the UEFA Champions League 2018/19 group stage are done. Same as every year, there have been some unexpected results. Even besides this, all favourites are still in play, but not everyone can pass to the Champions League Round of 16.

Only Borussia Dortmund, Barcelona and Juventus are in through the door to the last 16 of the tournament. Some of the great names of European football, however, will have to do with competing further in the Europa League. Teams closest to getting there are Monaco, Galatasaray, Benfica, Shakhtar Donetsk, CSKA Moskva and Manchester United.

Some participants did not exhibit enough quality for this competition and have already said goodbye to the next stage. Let’s see where the qualifiers from the groups are clear, and where everything is still uncertain.

Group A

It seems that Borussia Dortmund has practically secured placement into the Round of 16 after 4-0 victory against Atletico Madrid. It would be a miracle if the team from Germany drop their huge advantage over other rivals in the group. This particularly applies to Monaco and Club Brugge.

Atletico Madrid also have an impressive advantage ahead of Monaco and Club Brugge. It could be enough to secure the second place in the group. The Spanish club achieved a very important victory at Monaco, and two of the remaining three games they will play at home.

As for the third place, Monaco looks like a team with more chances than the Belgian opponent. They played out a 1-1 draw in Bruges and will host the Belgian club in the next round, on November 6.

In addition, unlike Club Brugge, Monaco are to play two of the remaining three games in the group at home. Therefore, the following order in the group is expected:

Borussia Dortmund, Atletico Madrid, Monaco, Club Brugge.

Group B

We have a very similar picture in Group B as Group A. Barcelona won all three games, including the last one against opponent for the first place, Inter Milan. To be even better, the latest success was achieved without injured Lionel Messi.

Therefore, it would be really silly to believe that someone can stop the Spanish team in their march to the top - in the group, of course. What happens later depends on the recovery of Barcelona's best player. However, he will be ready for the Round of 16 undoubtedly.

The Italian representative still has good prospects. With five points of advantage and two games at home in the remaining three rounds, they are favourites for the second place. But, if they lose against Barcelona at home in the next round, Tottenham could get back in the saddle again.

The English club is the host against Inter in the fifth round, and their victory is expected. However, speaking of the second place, I would give priority to Inter, because five points are too big of a handicap.

In the battle for the third place, Tottenham could have more chances than PSV, since they played a 2-2 draw in Eindhoven. In addition, in the next round, they will host their direct concurrent. That game could pose the biggest question in this group - which one will go to the Europa League Round of 32?

Expected order in Group B: Barcelona, Inter, Tottenham, PSV.

Group C

The situation is much more perplexed in Group C. Three main favourites are very close to each other after the first three rounds. The next round could answer many questions.

Of course, another win for Liverpool is expected, since they play in Belgrade against a very weak opponent for this competition.

A draw in Naples, where Napoli will meet Paris Saint-Germain, would be the best one for Liverpool. However, if Napoli wins, the French champion will be in a tough position. Therefore, the upcoming duel in Naples is the battle of all battles.

Napoli play really good, and in spite of Paris Saint-Germain’s very strong team, the Italian representative could win all three points.

If they win against PSG, the Italians could vie for the first place in the group. In that case, Liverpool would be the biggest loser because they cannot count on points in Paris. However, it would be unserious at this moment to predict the final order in the group.

Let's wait for the last round to see what is the upshot of this group.

Group D

This is another unpredictable group, with three equal favourites for passage to the next stage of the Champions League.

The next two rounds will be decisive for the Turkish representative. They have the ability to win the latter of them against Moskva but the visit to Schalke will be a tough one.

Without a doubt, Schalke is the favourite to win against Galatasaray at home. Bearing in mind another match at home, against Lokomotiv Moskva in the last round, they have real chances to win one of the first two places in the group.

Porto play at home against the Russian team and against Schalke. They could count on 4-6 points from those two games. With at least 11 points they are in the next stage of this competition. Bearing in mind all remaining games, a realistic order at the end of the competition in the group could be the same as at this moment.

Porto, Schalke 04, Galatasaray, Lokomotiv Moskva.

Group E

The Greek team is in the worst situation in Group E. They have already lost two games at home. In the third one to come at home, against Ajax, they cannot possibly hope get any benefit as well.

However, it would be a very important game for the Dutch team. It is not only a battle for the first place, but also for a place in the next stage of this competition. Following which, they visit Benfica and that game could be a stumbling block for them.

Benfica must play on all or nothing in that match. A victory in the Netherlands would give hope to the Portuguese for a favourable result. However, realistically a draw is the best that they could accomplish.

Bayern have been disappointing for their fans at the beginning of the season, but this team still wins. They have a great schedule in the remaining three rounds. They are hosts in two games, which they can win. So, the duel in Amsterdam in the last round will be decisive for the winner of this group.

The third place is guaranteed for Benfica and the fourth for AEK Athens.

Group F

Group F is probably the only group where all participants have chances to pass to the next stage of this competition.

Yet, Manchester City and Olympique Lyonnais have points of advantage, as well as more favourable schedule in the continuation of the competition. Both are hosts in two of the last three rounds. Their mutual game in Lyon will probably decide the question of the first place.

To be realistic, the greatest reach of Hoffenheim and Shakhtar Donetsk is the third place. Probably their mutual game will solve this question. Hoffenheim will host Shakhtar, and that is why the final order could be:

Olympique Lyonnais, Manchester City, Hoffenheim, Shakhtar Donetsk.

Group G

Group G is another in which we have three candidates for the first two places.

Thanks to 1-0 victory against Real Madrid at home and 2-2 draw at Viktoria Plzen, CSKA Moskva is still hot on the heels of Roma and Real Madrid. The schedule of the remaining three games is aiding and abetting them.

Only a victory against Viktoria Plzen at home could be enough for the third place and Round of 32 of the Europa League. However, if they win against Roma at home in the next round, the last game at Real Madrid could shoot them sky high.

To be realistic, there are small chances for such a scenario. The quality is on Roma’s and Real Madrid’s side. Therefore, for the final answer which one will win the first place, in the end, we must wait for the fifth round. On November 27 in Rome, they will play against each other.

Taking tricky form of Real Madrid into consideration, the final order could be the same as it is at this moment.

Roma, Real Madrid, CSKA Moskva, Viktoria Plzen.

Group H

Finally, a group where the winner is already known. The Italian champions have played excellent from the very beginning of the season. With Cristiano Ronaldo in the team, they still managed to keep their recognizable style of play, improving their quality in that way.

Jose Mourinho does not have a solution for his team’s form, and that is why the English team could even lose their place in this competition. If they suffer another defeat in Turin in the next round, the last round and visit to Valencia will solve everything.

Under such circumstances, the advantage could be on the Spanish representative’s side in spite of the fact that the Red Devils have never before lost against Valencia.

Young Boys have only one point less than Valencia and three less than Manchester United. However, they have a very hard schedule till the end of this part of the competition. They visit Valencia and Manchester United in the next two rounds, with small chances for success.

Therefore, the final order in this group could be:

Juventus, Valencia, Manchester United, Young Boys.

Edited by Sagnik Mallick