What Arsenal can expect in Greece

The Gunners will be looking to avid a Greek tragedy

After facing an early elimination in this year's Champions League, Arsenal have now the chance to avoid the tragedy, but first they have to survive in Greece.

Olympiacos are better than ever

Olympiacos is not a team that would ordinarily terrify the Gunners, but this term the Greeks are very strong. As a close observer of Olympiacos the last few years, I can understand that they are better than ever. Excluding their losses (4-0 away and 3-0 at home) to Bayern, the Reds have shown that they have improved a lot from the past. In their domestic league, Olympiakos have set a new precedent, easily winning all their matches, setting a record 12-0 start and have two away wins in the group stage of Champions League for the first time in eight years.

The win at the Emirates gave Olympiacos’ season a fillip and it enables them to appear with confidence in the crucial match against Arsenal at home. The Londoners have lost all three of their matches at Olympiacos in the past few years, but this time could be different. Arsenal’s Greek traditions were created under different conditions: Arsenal had already qualified when they lost in Greece in the UEFA CL groups of 2009/10, 2011/12 and 2012/13.

Arsenal need to be wary

On paper, Arsenal have nothing to fear, but there are facts which can lead them to a nightmare exit from the Champions League. First of all, Greek fans are incredibly passionate about football and particularly those of Olympiacos, whose dream since the start of the 21^st Century has been to see their team have an extraordinary run in a European competition. Olympiacos have made some steps in this direction, but they haven't managed to fulfill their vision; many believe that this is their year.

Secondly, the Reds consist of players who have ambitions to play in bigger clubs and their quality can be compared to Arsenal's footballers. Already, there allegedly is interest for many of Olympiacos’ players such as Fortounis, Pardo, Masuaku and Kasami from clubs like Tottenham, Bayer Leverkusen, even Arsenal, and that speaks volumes about their merit. Apart from all that, Arsenal need a concrete result to qualify, but not with a scoreline way too far from their abilities (0-2, 1-3, 2-3 or 3-4).

When Manchester United and others kneeled in Greece

The stadium of Olympiacos will be filled to the rafters and the intimidating atmosphere that their fans create can “sabotage“ the attempts of Wenger’s players. Many other powerhouses have suffered severe results there in the past: Manchester United, Juventus, Atletico Madrid, Benfica, Hertha Berlin, Werder Bremen and Borussia Dortmund are among the great clubs who have all lost to Olympiacos in recent years. So, Arsenal’s mission is extremely difficult, but not impossible, because they are the better team.

An advantage for Arsenal is that Olympiacos have not been so successful when playing host to other English visitors: winning three and losing three of the nine fixtures. Overall, their record is W7 D3 L15, but last season Olympiacos finished third in Group A, completing a clean sweep of home wins in the UEFA Champions League group stage (against Atletico Madrid, Juventus and Malmo), for the first time since 2009/10.

The type of the game

Arsenal will play offensively from the very first moment, as they would not want to waste any minute in their attempt to secure a 2 goal lead as soon as possible. Arsenal will, in all likelihood, be dominant in ball possession and Olympiacos will try to score on the counter attack. The problem is that Arsenal are very unstable this season with many ups and downs. They have beaten Chelsea, Manchester United and Bayern, but have lost to West Ham, West Brom and Sheffield Wednesday. So, one can’t really predict an Arsenal win with certainty, because they can beat anyone, but they can lose to anyone as well.

The line-ups

Olympiacos will likely have the following line-up: Roberto (goalkeeper), Siovas, Botia (central defenders), Elabdellaoui (right-back), Masuaku (left-back), Kasami, Cambiasso, Milivojevic (midfielders), Pardo, Seba and Ideye (attackers). Olympiacos have quality players in each position and particularly in midfield, where Fortounis and Dominguez also compete for a place in the starting lineup. Olympiacos tend to attack with their wingers, who possibly will be Pardo and Seba, but Hernani is a strong candidate for starting this match. Ideye is a striker that can easily find the net and has scored crucial goals for his team this season. Finnbogason is the other forward choice of Olympiacos manager Marco Silva, but the Icelandic International has become more a of a reserve player, although he netted the winner at Emirates.

As far as the English side is concerned, it is always difficult to predict Arsenal's line-up, because Wenger usually reserves surprises, but it is almost certain that Joel Campbell, who scored against Sunderland, will start the game. The reason is simple: The Costa Rican played in Olympiacos on loan from Arsenal in 2012/13, so he not only knows the opposition team, but the stadium as well. Despite the injuries of Cazorla and Sanchez, the Gunners have still players who can replace them with the best possible fashion, such as Ramsey, Walcott and Chamberlain, so Arsenal can cope. The line up will likely be the same as that against Sunderland, possibly with 1-2 changes: Cech, Nacho Monreal, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Bellerin, Ozil, Flamini, Ramsey, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Giroud, Campbell. Wenger won’t risk much and won’t significantly alter his team.

A true test of mental strength

Whatever happens, the game at Olympiacos will be an indication of what Arsenal are capable of achieving this year, because if they can be effective in a fixture like that, then the Gunners will be able to do the same with games that will decide titles. A failure would hurt the Londoners a lot and could affect them negatively for the whole season, because that would mean they’ll lose out on a cherished trophy in addition to gaining the Europa League’s fatigue inducing schedule. Well, nothing is impossible and Arsenal know quite well what to do; now that is everything they must do.