What if Chelsea fail to finish in the top 4?

The season has definitely reached its business end, with only a handful of games remaining. The title race is done and dusted with, while the battle for the top 4 positions and to avoid the drop seem anything but. Even mid-table clubs have the agenda on their minds of consolidating their current position in the table. Hence, as we head into the last 4 game-weeks, every team still has something to play for.

Arsenal, Tottenham and Chelsea are in a mighty scramble for 3rd and 4th, with Everton waiting to pounce should either of them suffer a dramatic dip in results. Arsenal have been finishing in the top four for 15 consecutive seasons, and one can safely bet on them doing it yet again this time under Wenger’s stewardship.

This leaves Chelsea and Tottenham in a straight fight for the last Champions League spot. In Chelsea’s case, the last decade has seen a top 4 finish as a given but now, they are in real danger of slipping out. For someone like Roman Abramovich, a top 4 finish is a must.

So what could be the impact on Chelsea if Rafa makes a mess of things and fails to deliver a top 4 finish?

Will star players leave?

Arsenal are a shining example here. True, they have managed Champions League qualification every season for the past 15 years, but the well known fact remains that it has been 8 years since they last won a trophy. This has led to departures of key players leaving the club in search of silverware. However winning trophies has not at all been a problem for Chelsea, because more often than not, they have somehow ended up with at least a single trophy every season. But what these successes have really done is to camouflage the actual underlying problem – the transfer policy.

Will we see reports of an ‘unsettled’ Eden Hazard should Chelsea fail to get into next season’s Champions League? (Getty Images)

Every season, it is assumed that Chelsea will finish in the top four, and this serves as a key factor in convincing highly-rated players to join the club. The lure of Champions League football is too good to refuse, and when the player is promised that the club can compete for it, and convinced that the club can qualify for it every season, the decision is an easy one to make.

Missing out on a top 4 finish would break those promises. Surely, players like Eden Hazard and Oscar would not have expected to be playing in the Europa League in their second season for Chelsea, but that looks like a real possibility now. Should this happen, will they turn their backs on the club and move on? When one looks at the potential situation from their side, it would make perfect sense for them to leave and join a rival club, or in fact, anyone capable of paying them what they want. This first season at Chelsea would have only served as a learning experience and time for acclimatizing to the league.

This has never happened in the Roman era. No player has ever before expressed a desire to leave the club because they have not been competitive, but it looks very likely to happen if Chelsea lose out on Champions League qualification. When such a process kicks in, its impact escalates alarmingly fast, as Arsenal have sadly found out (the only difference being, the lack of trophies as opposed to non qualification for the Champions League here). It would not be very long then, before players like Juan Mata or David Luiz start making the wrong noises.

Meeting Financial Fair Play Regulations

Abramovich has been striking deals with world famous companies like Delta Air and Audi, and even the Sauber F1 Team, in order to increase sponsorship funding into the club. To the best of my understanding, this has been a clever ploy, as it exploits possible loopholes in the much maligned policy.

Chelsea’s owner Roman Abramovich will be vary about the new FFP rules. (Getty Images)

However, the broader idea behind these deals is the assumption of guaranteed UEFA Champions League football every season. Missing out would have a huge impact on the club, since the prize money for 4th and 5th in the Premier League differs drastically. The club is then forced to spend what it earns, which would be much lesser than the standards the club has been used to (at least in terms of tournament prize money).

This to a certain extent, handicaps the club’s spending power and competence in the transfer market. Even if Abramovich splashes the cash like he always does, it would be a significant noncompliance to the FFP rules. A potentially tricky situation might arise.

Thus missing out on 4th would be a disaster without doubt, but it would definitely be a kick up the backside to all those in power at the club, to review their functioning.

Possible positive effects of missing out on the top four

Better treatment of players:

Maybe the club may realize the basic flaw that has been prevalent ever since the takeover – inability to bridge the gap between the first team and the youth level. Players like Michael Mancienne, Fabio Borini and Scott Sinclair were not given the chances they deserved to prove themselves because players were continuously being bought from foreign clubs.

Nicolas Anelka was forced out of the club for no apparent reason. (Getty Images)

Even when a player actually broke into the first team, it was not long before he was either loaned out (for example Josh McEachran or Lucas Piazon), or sold (ask Daniel Sturridge). Big money signings have always been given the priority (sometimes, even favouritism) over locally nurtured ones, without taking into account how good the local ones actually are. This may have led to a divide in the past.

For example, Fernando Torres was obviously one of the owner’s fantasy signings. To ensure his success, competition for him was gradually cut – first Nicolas Anelka was forced out, Didier Drogba and Salomon Kalou followed (even Romelu Lukaku, although temporarily), and finally Daniel Sturridge suffered the same fate. A club cannot treat its players in this manner. The way Chelsea have handled big money signings and their time on the pitch in comparison to young and upcoming players resembles the following analogy – one cannot just buy and start using a product just because it is of the best brand, without giving a proper opportunity for the lesser ones to display their abilities.

Maybe, the owner and his advisers will finally realize that they are viewing players like objects rather than humans, and mixing business models into football, which hardly benefits the club in the long run. Maybe after such introspection, we may finally see that elusive Chelsea star player nurtured from within.

Can the manager carousel be stopped?

Fans (real and plastic ones) will blame Rafa for the club’s plight if he misses out on 4th spot. All sorts of theories may come up – for example, Rafa came to Chelsea only to ruin them; Rafa only wanted to improve his CV, so he considered the Europa League seriously at the expense of the teams league position, etc. ‘Rafa Out’ will definitely be realized, and whoever comes in will have a massive task at hand – to climb back into the top four at the first attempt.

Abramovich will also take some part of the blame for sacking Roberto Di Matteo (and replacing him with Benitez) and causing instability just when things were starting to look smooth. Pep’s rejection would have hit him hard as well – it was the first time any manager had rejected his approach. Even regarding Mourinho’s apparent desire to return, surprisingly the ball is now in Roman’s court rather than his targets. Mourinho has reportedly set some targets for the club to achieve this season, and is willing to return only if they are met.

‘Rafa Out’ is sure to happen. (Getty Images)

Now with the knowledge that the Chelsea job is no longer a very coveted one, Roman might finally exercise a virtue he has never been associated with – patience. Possibly the manager who is appointed in the summer will really get a chance to see out his contract and ensure some sort of stability. The key to stopping Chelsea’s managerial merry-go-round may actually lie in giving a wakeup call to the man who matters by making him see the effect of most of his short-sighted actions so far, with respect to the managerial seat. Maybe after a severe jolt like missing out on the Champions League, the owner may be forced reconsider his ways.

Failing to qualify for next season’s Champions League will be considered as a disaster for Chelsea. In case it happens, fans can at least take solace in the fact that it may force the owner and the board to rethink how they are currently running the club. A positive change in their behaviour and future pattern of decisions would definitely benefit the club in the long run. And maybe, Frank Lampard may be given a new contract as well, in the hope that his presence and experience will serve the cause of returning to the Champions League at the first attempt.