World Cup 2018: Why Argentina's early exit was inevitable

Entering into the 2018 World Cup, Argentina were not amongst the favourites. Yet, with Lionel Messi being there, Argentina did have a good chance provided luck was on their side.

Luck, however only favours the brave and La Albiceleste were clearly not brave enough in their selection of the starting XI during the World Cup. It was rather shocking to see one of the game’s rising stars Paulo Dybala to be on the bench for most of their campaign.

Moreover, one of the best strikers in the world right now, Sergio Aguero, was dropped in their Round of 16 match versus France and Leo Messi was asked to play as a false 9. With Messi playing upfront, Argentina did not have a playmaker, someone who could supply the ball to the forwards.

The attackers did not have much of the ball and it became clear even after Argentina were 2-1 up against France that they’ll be on the flight back home sooner or later. In addition, Argentina faced a lot of problems at the back, they did not have a proper keeper and the performances of players like Manchester City’s star defender Nicolas Otamendi were certainly below par and disappointing.

It is also important to mention here the kind of negativity and disunity that was present in the Argentine camp. For instance, there were talks in the media referring to the retirement of 7 players during the group stage and possibly Sergio Aguero being left out on the bench because of an argument with the coach.

And yet, while Messi’s Argentina did disappoint us, it did not surprise us that they were on their way back home. Many of us were optimistic fans wanting Messi to lift the cup, something we all knew would not happen.

Looking back, problems for Argentina had started much before the World Cup. A careful in-depth analysis of Argentina’s World Cup qualification campaign may help us understand why Argentina’s early World Cup exit was inevitable.

Argentina’s haul of 19 goals in the qualification campaign was lowest among the four-qualified South American nations and it was also their lowest haul since 1998. Furthermore, they had an 11% goal conversion rate, which was again the worst amongst the qualified teams.

In contrast, World Cup favourites Brazil scored 41 goals and had a goal conversion rate of 18%. Argentina were dismal in front of goal scoring only 19 goals from 236 shots whereas Brazil hit a total of 268 shots scoring 41 goals.

Well, all this may seem okay for an average team, but when you look at Argentina’s strike force, these numbers seem shocking and unreal. Manchester City star man Sergio Aguero, Juventus’s lifeline Gonzalo Higuain, one of football’s rising new stars Paulo Dybala, the striking machine Mauro Icardi and Lionel Messi himself form the attacking quartet.

Messi alone scored 7 goals from 10 matches and Argentina secured 21 points out of their total of 28 points from these 10 matches. Thus, 75% of their points came with him on the pitch. Additionally, in the last game of the qualifications against Ecuador (A must win game for Argentina to qualify), Messi’s first goal was Argentina’s first goal in 446 minutes of play. Eventually, Argentina won the match thanks to Messi’s hat-trick.

And so, we all knew that Argentina were going out early. We had similar thoughts in 2014 and were proved wrong by the brilliance of Lionel Messi. But it wasn’t just him. Back then, Messi was supported well by other players like Mascherano, who is presently 34 years old and way past his prime.

Argentina had also found a new hero in their solid keeper Sergio Romero. He was brilliant and was instrumental in providing some stability at the back. Consider it bad luck, Romero was injured just before the World Cup and Argentina were all panic.

They did not have a solid keeper, the 36-year-old Caballero did not look confident and stable. It always seemed like he had a mistake up his sleeve and that did happen in their 0-3 thrashing against Croatia.

Well it can be said that it’s not the team with the best players that wins. It’s the players with the best team that wins. And so as I write this article, Argentina are out of the World Cup, Messi is out of the world cup and our hopes of a Messi-Ronaldo meeting in the quarterfinals are shattered. But wait, they do meet at the airport!

Well to sum it all up, instability is not a good thing in football or in life. Recently, one of the World Cup favourites, Spain were knocked out of the tournament as well. One of the main reasons for this as stated by many is the sudden managerial change on the eve of Spain’s first World Cup match.

A similar problem existed with Argentina who have had three different coaches over their qualification period, leading to instability. In the words of Messi “We had different coaches and it's always difficult to start from scratch and adapt to a new philosophy.”

A combination of factors like instability, over-dependence on Messi, lack of confidence, lack of trust, poor qualification campaign, etc. made it clear that Argentina’s early World Cup exit was inevitable.