Why Manchester City are favourites against Bayern Munich in Champions League

Europe will witness one of its biggest games when Manchester City host Bayern Munich in the first leg of the UEFA Champions League quarterfinals on Tuesday (April 11) evening.

Forget the fact that Pep Guardiola’s side have never won a European trophy, or that Bayern have been crowned champions of Europe six times, this is a heavyweight encounter.

However, while the German champions have more European history and pedigree, Manchester City have every reason to go into this game feeling optimistic. The Cityzens have been among the best teams in Europe in the last decade and have come close to winning the Champions League many times under Guardiola.

Sometimes they’ve missed out due to a lack of luck and other times, it was simply because they failed to rise to the occasion when the stakes were high. However, they’ve rarely gone into games as underdogs, and that won’t change against Bayern.

---

Manchester City are in better form

Just like Manchester City, Bayern are almost always favourites, irrespective of which opponent face. This time, though, the Cityzens will have the upper hand.

It’s not just because Guardiola’s side is playing the first leg at the Etihad and will have the benefit of home advantage, but they’re also currently on a better run of form.

Manchester City are unbeaten since February and have won their last eight games across competitions by a combined score of 31-3. By contrast, Bayern have blown hot and cold this season.

Despite sitting at the top of the Bundesliga table, the Bavarians have been very shaky and not even replacing Julian Nagelsmann with Thomas Tuchel has resolved the situation.

With Bayern losing twice in their last four games, it isn’t too difficult to see why Manchester City are favourites going into Tuesday’s game, at least based on form.

---

Bayern Munich still unsettled under Tuchel

Tuchel is a very good coach, and he proved his tactical brilliance in his last three jobs at Borussia Dortmund, Paris Saint-Germain and Chelsea.

The German is also the first, and only, manager to beat a side coached by Guardiola in a Champions League final. So this won’t be an easy game for Manchester City, but Tuchel arrived at Bayern just a few weeks ago and is yet to immerse the team in his style.

Bayern’s disappointing defeat to Freiburg in the German Cup last week was a testament to the fact that the team isn’t yet settled under their new manager. The Bavarians aren’t yet playing like a Tuchel team, unlike the Cityzens who are far more advanced in their project under Guardiola.

"I don't think I can learn much from other games I've played against Pep,” Tuchel admitted ahead of Tuesday’s blockbuster clash, as quoted by Sky Sports. It's unique what Pep does. We'll try to find solutions, but we'll need a complete performance to create problems for City. We did not mention this (2021) final, and we will not do it. That would feel very awkward for me. We focus now on our team."

Bayern have been struggling in recent weeks and are probably facing Manchester City at the worst possible time. A team on form and desperate to banish their European demons, Guardiola and his side are the favourites, and Bayern will need to outdo themselves to stand a chance of stopping the English champions.