Will Watford, Brighton, Crystal Palace or Leicester City win the Championship Play-offs?

The Championship play-off final is the richest single game in sport. With the new TV contract coming in to place next year, the winner of this year’s competition will be in for a pay day estimated to be worth over £100m. That’s quite the pressure to be under with just three games to decide who will claim that financial prize and win themselves a place in the Premier League next season. These are the teams involved:

Watford

Story of the Season

Watford finished 3rd after an agonising final day of the season when they failed to capitalise on Hull’s draw with Cardiff to seize the final automatic spot. After the change of ownership and influx of new players, hopes were high in pre-season that the club could be competitive but a challenge for promotion was beyond all expectations.

Strength

Attack. Watford were the top away scorers in the football league and at times can play dazzling rapid passing football. Troy Deeney leads the line with physical authority, Matej Vydra is the most clinical finisher in the league, Fernando Forrestieri has the dribbling and passing to unlock the tightest defences and Almen Abdi adds goals from midfield. They play at speed, particularly on the break, and can be impossible to stop if they score early

Weakness

Flakiness. The only reason they are in the Play-Offs is because they squandered so many points late in games during the season, many due to horrendous errors. They have a propensity to leak goals defensively and if they don’t take the lead in games early they find it hard to recover.

Key Man

Player of the Year Almen Abdi is by far Watford’s most important player. He brings control to the midfield where he is assured on the ball and able to intercept and tackle and has scored 15 goals when raiding forward.

Can they win it?

Yes. All of the other teams will attack them which suits their counter attacking style. They have more quality than the others teams and if they are right mentally, they will win it.

Brighton

Story of the Season

Brighton finished 4th having started and ended the season looking like the best team in the league. There was a huge mid season dip caused by insufficient returns in front of goal but their possession based game led to a tight defence and gradually revived attack. The form team of the four.

Strength

Tactics. Gus Poyet has implemented a subtle tactical system during his four years at the club and every player knows how he fits in to it. They pass the ball and press like the top European teams and trust the system under all circumstances. They won’t panic. They have a rock solid defence based on a possession first theory. If they have the ball all game, they won’t concede. This is because they are so well drilled and organised.

Weakness

Goals. They are the lowest scoring of the play-off teams and only Craig Mackail-Smith reached double figures, albeit only 11.

Key Man

Liam Bridcutt is Brighton’s Xavi. He plays the ‘number 6? role in Poyet’s side as the deep lying pivot. His role is to receive the ball in space and move it on quickly when in attack and to lead the pressing when in defence. It all goes through him.

Can they win it?

They are in great form but against ferocious attacking sides, there will be worries about their ability to score enough.

Crystal Palace

Story of the Season

Palace looked like potential league winners early in the season but their form has nosedived over the last couple of months. Ian Holloway’s bizarre fascination with Watford’s loan players culminated in a post match rant after their game at Vicarage Road since when the club have hit bad form. Perhaps he was complacent about his team, perhaps they are just very young.

Strength

Midfield. Palace have the best midfield in the league. Jedinak and Dikgacoi are good on the ball and shield the defence well but the real strength is the attacking trio of Zaha, Bolasie and Williams. Zaha’s form has earned him a move to Man United and Bolsaie is a Premier League player in waiting. They offer multi-dimensional threat and have to be watched at all times.

Weakness

Defence. Palace conceded the 10th most goals in the league and the worrying thing is that a lot of this damage has been done lately. None of the back four have covered themselves in glory and all are capable of glaring errors. It’s a quality issue rather than a system one, they’re well protected in midfield but they make so many mistakes.

Key Man

Wilfried Zaha has to show why Man United laid out £15m on him in January. He’s capable of destroying any Championship defence, even one as solid as Brighton’s, with his direct dribbling and goal scoring. His dip in form has coincided with Palace’s and they need more from him.

Can they win it?

No. They are in such wretched form and match up horribly against the other three teams.

Leicester City

Story of the Season

Leicester came in to the season expecting to win the league and after a good start, it looked like they would. Since Christmas though, they’ve clunked along and fell out of the play-offs before their last day win at Nott’m Forest. They’re not in form, but they scrambled in nonetheless.

Strength

Defence. The Leicester defence is one of the best in the league, indeed only Brighton and Cardiff conceded fewer goals. Wes Morgan is, with Hull’s James Chester, one of the top Championship centre backs. In goal, Kasper Schmeichel is by far the best in the league and should really be in the top flight. It’s a sound base.

Weakness

Passivity. How does the team with the third best defence and fourth best attack finish 6th? It’s almost impossible. The reason is that if Leicester get in to trouble they don’t fight out of it. They are untouchable when in front but they cannot cope with adversity.

Key Man

Anthony Knockaert. The little French winger has scored 8 and made 6 goals this season. His dry run came as Leicester struggled but he is able to make something out of nothing.

Can they win it?

Yes, but only if they start well. If they get in to trouble, they won’t get themselves out of it but if they get 1-0 up early they’ll see it through.