World Cup 2014 qualification permutations: Crucial matches for Croatia, Portugal and England

With around 243 days left for the big event to kick off at the Arena de Sao Paulo in Sao Paulo, Brazil, the national teams are gearing up for the ultimate and penultimate round of qualifiers to stand a chance of competing in the biggest sporting event on the planet, which is returning to its ‘home’ after almost 64 years. While some of them have already booked their berth in the finals, stakes are high for the many exciting teams who are competing for limited spots. Europe, being the most popular footballing continent, has the highest number of team entries into the World Cup. 13 out of 53 European teams which have taken part in the qualifiers, become eligible for the finals draw.

The UEFA Leg

15th October, i.e, tomorrow, marks the final set of matches in the first round the qualifiers in the UEFA or European leg. All 9 group winners qualify directly to the finals, while the 8 best second placed teams battle it out in 2 legged playoffs for the 4 remaining spots. As of today, the standings of the teams in their respective groups as follows, click here. Five teams, Belgium, Italy, Netherlands, Germany and Switzerland have confirmed their World Cup spots. Let us now look at some of the crucial ties that take place tomorrow which can bring about some significant changes to the current scenario.

The ‘Oranje’ booked their place in the final 32 with a thumping win over Hungary

The FIFA rules state that, the points and and hence goals attained from the group matches against the last placed team in the group won’t be accounted in the playoff calculations. As it stands, among the teams placed second in their groups, Bulgaria, Croatia, Portugal, Ukraine, Iceland and Turkey could be potentially knocked out after tomorrow’s matches and Slovenia, Montenegro, Hungary, Denmark, Armenia and Romania have a chance of making into the playoffs. Lets take a deeper look into how these things pan out. To give a better picture, the following is the current table of second placed teams.

Group	Team	Played	Won	Drew	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points	Sixth-placed team
G	Greece	8	6	1	1	9	4	5	19	Liechtenstein
F	Portugal	8	4	3	1	15	8	7	15	Luxembourg
H	Ukraine	8	4	3	1	11	4	7	15	San Marino
I	France	7	4	2	1	12	6	6	14	N/A
C	Sweden	7	4	2	1	12	8	4	14	Faroe Islands
E	Iceland	7	4	1	2	14	13	1	13	Cyprus
A	Croatia	7	3	2	2	9	6	3	11	Macedonia
D	Turkey	7	3	1	3	9	7	2	10	Andorra
B	Bulgaria	7	1	4	2	6	7	?1	7	Malta

Group A

Team	Pld	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
Belgium	9	8	1	0	17	3	14	25
Croatia	9	5	2	2	12	7	5	17
Serbia	9	3	2	4	13	10	3	11
Wales	9	3	0	6	8	19	?11	9
Scotland	9	2	2	5	6	12	?6	8
Macedonia	9	2	1	6	6	11	?5	7

Fixtures

Serbia v Macedonia

Belgium v Wales

Scotland v Croatia – A must win for Croatia

Belgium made it to Brazil last week, thanks to a brace from the Beast, Lukaku. Croatia are in second place, but are still not assured of a playoff spot. If Croatia lose their match with Scotland, they can be in trouble. The last placed team in the group can potentially change. This can be either good or bad for Croatia. If Scotland ends up in last place, then Croatia will better its place in the playoff table. If Wales finishes last in the group, Croatia will be 1 goal shy of the present situation in the playoff table.

The problem for Croatia arises in the form of Group B team, Armenia. Armenia has an outside chance of finishing in the playoff table with 12 points and an variable goal difference, which when coupled with wins for either Turkey or Romania of Group D in their respective matches, will put Croatia as the worst second placed team in the playoff table, knocking them out of the competition. All this, will only happen if Croatia lose their last match against Scotland, and matches in other groups have their effect.

Group B

Team	Pld	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
Italy	9	6	3	0	17	7	10	21
Bulgaria	9	3	4	2	14	8	6	13
Denmark	9	3	4	2	11	12	?1	13
Czech Republic	9	3	3	3	12	9	3	12
Armenia	9	4	0	5	10	11	?1	12
Malta	9	1	0	8	5	22	?17	3

Fixtures

Denmark v Malta

Bulgaria v Czech Republic – A must win match for Bulgaria

Italy v Armenia – A must win for Armenia

Italy too have booked their seat in the World Cup finals after being drawn into a relatively easier qualifiers group. The second place battle in this group is a bit peculiar. Losing to last placed Malta, has actually helped Armenia stand a slim chance of making it to the playoffs, while the 4th placed Czech Republic will get knocked out of the tournament even if they win their tie against Bulgaria.

Meanwhile, Denmark or Bulgaria can qualify for the playoffs with wins at the expense of Group D’s Turkey who face Netherlands. If Armenia manage to finish in second place with a win over Malta, they will make the playoffs, given Croatia lose their Group A match. Everything is perfectly entangled at the moment. Moving on..

Group C

Team	Pld	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
Germany	9	8	1	0	31	7	24	25
Sweden	9	6	2	1	16	9	7	20
Austria	9	4	2	3	17	10	7	14
Republic of Ireland	9	3	2	4	13	16	?3	11
Kazakhstan	9	1	2	6	5	18	?13	5
Faroe Islands	9	0	1	8	4	26	?22	1

Fixtures

Faroe Islands v Austria

Sweden v Germany

Ireland v Kazakhstan

Last time semifinalists and favorites this time, Germany had an easy path for their World Cup qualification. They have one of the most exciting squads with world class talent raring to win their first major trophy since 1996. Placed second in the group, Sweden, spearheaded by the one and only Zlatan Ibrahimovic reigned superior over the other teams in the group and entered the playoff round without any fuss.

Group D

Team	Pld	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
Netherlands	9	8	1	0	32	5	27	25
Turkey	9	5	1	3	16	7	9	16
Romania	9	5	1	3	17	12	5	16
Hungary	9	4	2	3	19	20	?1	14
Estonia	9	2	1	6	6	18	?12	7
Andorra	9	0	0	9	0	28	?28	0

Fixtures

Hungary v Andorra

Turkey v Netherlands – A crucial, must win tie for Turkey

Romania v Estonia – A must win for Romania

Netherlands had a shocking EURO campaign last year, but the last time World Cup finalists made a point with some superb displays in the qualifiers. 32 goals in 9 matches ensured their berth in the finals in Brazil next year. The fight for the 2nd spot though, is pretty much straight forward with a win for one and loss for another among Turkey and Romania putting them in the playoffs. But Turkey will be up against the Oranje, So, Romania might be having a better shot at the next round.

Hungary have a very slim chance of going through to the playoff round. They play the last placed side, Andorra, which means their scoreline doesn’t matter. But, a win for Hungary and dropped points for Turkey and Romania, and a big loss for Group A’s Croatia, will see them playing in the 8 teamed second round of qualifiers.

Group E

Team	Pld	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
Switzerland	9	6	3	0	16	6	10	21
Iceland	9	5	1	3	16	14	2	16
Slovenia	9	5	0	4	14	10	4	15
Norway	9	3	2	4	9	12	?3	11
Albania	9	3	1	5	9	11	?2	10
Cyprus	9	1	1	7	4	15	?11	4

Fixtures

Cyprus v Albania

Norway v Iceland – A must win for Iceland

Switzerland v Slovenia – A must win for Slovenia

Underrated, Switzerland didn’t face much trouble in booking their name in the final 32 of the next summer’s World Cup. With the rest of the group having relatively low ranked teams the swiss maintained their continued appearances in top tournaments. Cyprus will remain the last placed team of the group which means it is either Slovenia or Iceland playing in the playoffs. Iceland need a win to guarantee that, else they will be depending on Slovenia losing the match against Switzerland. Slovenia will have to beat the Swiss and hope that Iceland loses to Norway in order to go through to the next round of qualifiers. In any case, it looks good for Iceland.

Group F

Team	Pld	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
Russia	9	7	0	2	19	4	15	21
Portugal	9	5	3	1	17	9	8	18
Israel	9	3	4	2	18	13	5	13
Azerbaijan	9	1	5	3	6	10	?4	8
Northern Ireland	9	1	3	5	8	16	?8	6
Luxembourg	9	1	3	5	7	23	?16	6

Fixtures

Israel v Northern Ireland

Portugal v Luxembourg – A crucial, must win tie for Portugal

Azerbaijan v Russia - A must win for Russia to top the group

Despite being second in the table for second placed teams, Portugal faces the threat of being knocked out of the World Cup before even entering into it. Russia is assured of a place in the second round of the qualifying phase, but a win against Azerbaijan will see them win the group for the the direct ticket to Brazil. Currently, Russia are 3 points ahead of Portugal and have a healthy +7 lead in terms of goal difference. Tomorrow, Portugal will play Luxembourg at home and Russia will travel to Azerbaijan for their last match. If Russia manages to lose in Azerbaijan, then Portugal will have to win with a massive goal difference, 6-0 being the minimum final score required.

If Russia wins, all is straight forward and Portugal will have try their luck in the playoffs. Even that looks grim for the 2004 EURO finalists. This group doesn’t have a confirmed last placed team. That uncertainty means Portugal will have to win their match against Luxembourg. Otherwise, in a hyped up hypothetical scenario, When Azerbaijan finishes last in the group and Portugal lose their match heavily, and teams in other groups placed second or stand a chance of finishing second manage to score more than 12 points, then the team of the best player in the world will not be participating in the event in Brazil next summer.

Group G

Team	Pld	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
Bosnia and Herzegovina	9	7	1	1	29	6	23	22
Greece	9	7	1	1	10	4	6	22
Slovakia	9	3	3	3	9	8	1	12
Lithuania	9	3	2	4	9	10	?1	11
Latvia	9	2	1	6	8	18	?10	7
Liechtenstein	9	0	2	7	4	23	?19	2

Fixtures

Bosnia v Lithuania - A must win for Bosnia to top the group

Greece v Liechtenstein – A must win for Greece to top the group

Latvia v Slovakia

There is nothing much to discuss in this group as both Bosnia and Greece have a good chance of grabbing that single direct spot in the last 32, as the other will compete in the playoff round. With the massive goal difference, Bosnia is surely the winner of this group.

Group H

Team	Pld	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
England	9	5	4	0	29	4	25	19
Ukraine	9	5	3	1	20	4	16	18
Montenegro	9	4	3	2	16	12	4	15
Poland	9	3	4	2	18	10	8	13
Moldova	9	2	2	5	7	15	?8	8
San Marino	9	0	0	9	1	46	?45	0

Fixtures

England v Poland - Crucial, must win match for England to top the group

Ukraine v San Marino – Crucial, must win matches for Ukraine to top the group

Montenegro v Moldova

Who will outscore whom?

This will be the group the whole world will be keen on watching. England need a win on Poland to be among the 9 direct qualifying teams. While they have assured themselves of a playoff berth, a loss to Poland and Ukraine winning their match with San Marino will be a big blow for Roy Hodgson’s plans. Montenegro has a very slim chance of beating Ukraine to that second spot. firstly, Ukraine must lose badly and Montenegro must win very big so as make up that 12 goal differential.

Group I

Team	Pld	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
Spain	7	5	2	0	12	3	9	17
France	7	4	2	1	12	6	6	14
Finland	7	2	3	2	5	6	-1	9
Georgia	7	1	2	4	3	8	-5	5
Belarus	8	1	1	6	7	16	-9	4

Fixtures

Spain v Georgia - Must win match for Spain to top the group

France v Finland – Must win match for France to top the group

With only 5 teams drawn into this group and two heavyweights in Spain and France battling it out for the top spot, much was made of the match between these two sides back in March. Spain still haven’t confirmed their direct qualification, but they face a lowly Georgia at home. While France is safe in the playoff table, a good win over Finland and a shock Spain loss will see them reach the final 32 with direct qualification.

Further…

While reaching playoffs is an achievement in itself for some teams, that is the stage where the real test comes to the fore. International knockout matches are always intensifying and nerve-wracking. With almost all of the 8 teams equally good, the two legs of the playoffs will be a good watch. The draw for the second round of European qualifiers will take place on 21st of October with the seeding given as of October 2013. The draw procedure is yet to be disclosed. It will most likely be a random draw.