World Cup 2014 qualification permutations: Crucial matches for Croatia, Portugal and England

Group F

Team	Pld	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
Russia	9	7	0	2	19	4	15	21
Portugal	9	5	3	1	17	9	8	18
Israel	9	3	4	2	18	13	5	13
Azerbaijan	9	1	5	3	6	10	?4	8
Northern Ireland	9	1	3	5	8	16	?8	6
Luxembourg	9	1	3	5	7	23	?16	6

Fixtures

Israel v Northern Ireland

Portugal v Luxembourg – A crucial, must win tie for Portugal

Azerbaijan v Russia - A must win for Russia to top the group

Despite being second in the table for second placed teams, Portugal faces the threat of being knocked out of the World Cup before even entering into it. Russia is assured of a place in the second round of the qualifying phase, but a win against Azerbaijan will see them win the group for the the direct ticket to Brazil. Currently, Russia are 3 points ahead of Portugal and have a healthy +7 lead in terms of goal difference. Tomorrow, Portugal will play Luxembourg at home and Russia will travel to Azerbaijan for their last match. If Russia manages to lose in Azerbaijan, then Portugal will have to win with a massive goal difference, 6-0 being the minimum final score required.

If Russia wins, all is straight forward and Portugal will have try their luck in the playoffs. Even that looks grim for the 2004 EURO finalists. This group doesn’t have a confirmed last placed team. That uncertainty means Portugal will have to win their match against Luxembourg. Otherwise, in a hyped up hypothetical scenario, When Azerbaijan finishes last in the group and Portugal lose their match heavily, and teams in other groups placed second or stand a chance of finishing second manage to score more than 12 points, then the team of the best player in the world will not be participating in the event in Brazil next summer.

Group G

Team	Pld	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
Bosnia and Herzegovina	9	7	1	1	29	6	23	22
Greece	9	7	1	1	10	4	6	22
Slovakia	9	3	3	3	9	8	1	12
Lithuania	9	3	2	4	9	10	?1	11
Latvia	9	2	1	6	8	18	?10	7
Liechtenstein	9	0	2	7	4	23	?19	2

Fixtures

Bosnia v Lithuania - A must win for Bosnia to top the group

Greece v Liechtenstein – A must win for Greece to top the group

Latvia v Slovakia

There is nothing much to discuss in this group as both Bosnia and Greece have a good chance of grabbing that single direct spot in the last 32, as the other will compete in the playoff round. With the massive goal difference, Bosnia is surely the winner of this group.

Group H

Team	Pld	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
England	9	5	4	0	29	4	25	19
Ukraine	9	5	3	1	20	4	16	18
Montenegro	9	4	3	2	16	12	4	15
Poland	9	3	4	2	18	10	8	13
Moldova	9	2	2	5	7	15	?8	8
San Marino	9	0	0	9	1	46	?45	0

Fixtures

England v Poland - Crucial, must win match for England to top the group

Ukraine v San Marino – Crucial, must win matches for Ukraine to top the group

Montenegro v Moldova

Who will outscore whom?

This will be the group the whole world will be keen on watching. England need a win on Poland to be among the 9 direct qualifying teams. While they have assured themselves of a playoff berth, a loss to Poland and Ukraine winning their match with San Marino will be a big blow for Roy Hodgson’s plans. Montenegro has a very slim chance of beating Ukraine to that second spot. firstly, Ukraine must lose badly and Montenegro must win very big so as make up that 12 goal differential.

Group I

Team	Pld	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
Spain	7	5	2	0	12	3	9	17
France	7	4	2	1	12	6	6	14
Finland	7	2	3	2	5	6	-1	9
Georgia	7	1	2	4	3	8	-5	5
Belarus	8	1	1	6	7	16	-9	4

Fixtures

Spain v Georgia - Must win match for Spain to top the group

France v Finland – Must win match for France to top the group

With only 5 teams drawn into this group and two heavyweights in Spain and France battling it out for the top spot, much was made of the match between these two sides back in March. Spain still haven’t confirmed their direct qualification, but they face a lowly Georgia at home. While France is safe in the playoff table, a good win over Finland and a shock Spain loss will see them reach the final 32 with direct qualification.

Further…

While reaching playoffs is an achievement in itself for some teams, that is the stage where the real test comes to the fore. International knockout matches are always intensifying and nerve-wracking. With almost all of the 8 teams equally good, the two legs of the playoffs will be a good watch. The draw for the second round of European qualifiers will take place on 21st of October with the seeding given as of October 2013. The draw procedure is yet to be disclosed. It will most likely be a random draw.