World Cup 2018: 4 reasons why England will definitely defeat Belgium

This Thursday marks crunch time for England in this year’s World Cup – and not in the way you might think. Gareth Southgate’s young side have looked impressive thus far and wins over Tunisia and Panama have already put them into the last 16 – meaning their final Group G game against Belgium takes some new meaning.

Rather than being a must-win fixture it’s now a unique opportunity – a chance for the Three Lions to pick up their first win over a major nation in a competitive fixture since their victory over Argentina in 2002 in a relatively low-pressure situation.

Can Southgate’s side do it? Of course, they can, and here are 4 reasons why they definitely will.

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#1 England’s players know Belgium’s very well

Due to their Premier League familiarity, the likes of Romelu Lukaku and Eden Hazard don't seem as scary as other World Cup stars

Of all of the teams at Russia 2018, perhaps no other side will be as familiar to England’s players as Belgium. Of Roberto Martinez’s star-studded squad, no less than 11 of the 23 ply their trade in the Premier League, with a further 4 having previously been there too. That means that the “unknown” or “bogeyman” effect that we’ve seen international stars have on England’s psyche before probably shouldn’t exist.

The likes of Harry Kane, Dele Alli, John Stones and Raheem Sterling pit their wits against Belgium’s best every day in training with their clubs, and while the same can of course be said in reverse, the likelihood is that no other players know the weaknesses of Belgium’s stars quite like England’s do.

Sure, amazing talents like Eden Hazard, Kevin de Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku – if they all play – sound scary to face, but when you come up against them week in, week out in the Premier League, how bad can it really be? This is very different from a fixture pitting England against say, Argentina and the lesser-faced talents of Lionel Messi and Paulo Dybala, for instance – meaning England might have a small psychological advantage.

#2 Southgate has a plan – but does Martinez?

Gareth Southgate has got his system seemingly spot on for the World Cup

The major hallmark of England’s campaign thus far is that manager Gareth Southgate has come to Russia with a concrete plan of exactly how he wants his side to play, and over their first two games the Three Lions have stuck to it to great effect. Utilising a 3-5-1-1 system relying heavily on the use of wing-backs and playing the ball out from the back, Southgate has imposed his vision on the squad and all players to a man seem to have bought in.

Can the same be said for Belgium, though? Like England, they’ve won both of their games thus far, but the first half of their game against Panama in particular looked heavily disjointed. Roberto Martinez deployed a 3-4-3 formation with Eden Hazard and Dries Mertens as wide forwards to complement Romelu Lukaku, but the tactic felt almost defensive and the talents of Kevin de Bruyne felt wasted as many felt that he played from too deep a position.

Panama were eventually broken down in the second half, but while Tunisia were dispatched of with relative ease it still doesn’t feel like Martinez is making the most of his many talents, de Bruyne in particular. Belgium might have more talent, man-for-man than England, but it’s about how you use them and right now it feels like Southgate is the manager with a better grip on that.

#3 Set-piece magic can help England

England have looked deadly from set-pieces thus far

England arrived at the World Cup having failed to score from a corner during a tournament since Matthew Upson’s header against Germany back in 2010 – wasting 72 attempts in the process – but thanks to Gareth Southgate’s work on the training ground, that’s all changed in Russia. Of their 8 goals scored thus far, 3 have come directly from corners with a 4th also earning a penalty. And they’ve also scored a goal set up directly from a free-kick set-piece, too.

Reports suggest that Southgate’s players have drilled set-pieces meticulously during training sessions, and that the manager’s ideas surrounding set-piece work have been surprisingly parachuted in via the NBA; Southgate has apparently spoken to coaches about how basketball players use runs and feints to create space in tight areas. And as strange as that sounds, clearly it’s working.

All of this could come to fruition again when England play Belgium on Thursday. Belgium have conceded twice in the tournament thus far – both against Tunisia – but it’s the first goal they let in that should raise eyebrows for England. It came directly from a floated free-kick, with some slack marking allowing Dylan Bronn to head home. If Belgium are this slack on Thursday, England’s set-piece routines could produce dividends once again – and allow the Three Lions to win.

#4 Belgium are set to make a lot of changes

Roberto Martinez will likely rest stars like Kevin de Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku for the match with England

It’s already been reported that, having qualified already for the round of 16, Roberto Martinez is set to make up to ten changes to Belgium’s starting line-up for the match with England. That’s essentially the whole team – and despite the likes of Kevin de Bruyne and Eden Hazard desperate to play against their Premier League teammates and rivals, it doesn’t look likely to happen as their boss wants to rest his key men and also protect players who have already been booked from a potential suspension.

In some ways, that makes sense – even if they lose to England, Belgium will still go into the knockouts. But if one side loses here, they might also lose something key to success in a tournament like the World Cup – momentum. And Gareth Southgate, in contrast to Martinez, appears to understand this. That could be due to England’s previous tournament – Euro 2016 saw Roy Hodgson ring 6 changes for the final group game, but the side then stuttered to a 0-0 draw with Slovakia, lost all momentum and subsequently crashed out to Iceland.

Southgate has suggested he will make some changes – ostensibly to protect the physical health of his key players, but he’s also suggested England need to win the game and current reports suggest Harry Kane will definitely be starting. And England with most of – if not all – their key players against Belgium without Lukaku, de Bruyne, Hazard et al? That sounds like a recipe for success for Southgate’s men.