World Cup 2018: Three Tactical Changes Mexico should make against Brazil

Before the final game of the group stages, it looked as if Mexico might be favorites to break their streak of six consecutive exits at the Round of 16 of the FIFA World Cup 2018.

They were going to finish first in their group and play the second placed team in Group E (Switzerland). That changed in an eventful evening in Yekaterinburg as El Tri put in a pedestrian performance against Sweden, resulting in a 3-0 loss.

While South Korea’s brave performance against Germany saved Mexico from elimination, the loss to Sweden meant that Mexico will be playing favorites Brazil in the Round of 16.

Most teams would not be given a chance against this Brazil side but Mexico have already shocked one pre-tournament favorite: Germany.

In that match, the CONCACAF side played the perfect game against the defending champions as they were lethal on the counter-attack.

El Tri will have to be even better if they are to defeat Brazil. The following are some tactical decisions that Mexico manager Juan Carlos Osorio should make if Mexico is to achieve the impossible.

---

#1 Sit Deep and Counter-Attack

This is one decision that Osorio will almost definitely make against Brazil. This is how Mexico chose to play against Germany- the results were there for all to see. 42% of the action was in Mexico’s third as Germany attacked relentlessly.

However, despite this, Mexico actually averaged more expected goals (a statistic which evaluates how many goals a team should have scored based on the position of their shots) than Germany (according to Caley Graphics). This shows that Mexico were able to create higher quality chances as a result of their counter-attacks.

They should repeat this strategy against Brazil as the Selecao also like to dominate possession (third most short passes in the tournament so far).

Moreover, Brazil have already struggled against two teams that sat back and allowed them to dominate possession: Switzerland and Costa Rica.

In the former game, Switzerland held Brazil to a draw while in the latter, Brazil did not score until second-half injury time.

Moreover, Mexico has the defensive personnel to match up with Brazil. Sitting deep would create space that would allow Hirving Lozano, Javier Hernandez and Miguel Layun to wreak havoc.

One problem with such a strategy is that Brazil has one of the world’s best defensive midfielders in Casemiro who is adept at stopping such counter-attacks- which brings us to our next point.

#2 Attack Primarily Down the Wings

Gallardo was arguably Mexico’s best player in their first two games

The best way to prevent Casemiro from stopping counter-attacks is if Mexico primarily attack through the wings.

Mexico hasn’t done this yet as a rather significant 26% of their attacks (10 out of 32 teams in the World Cup) have come through the middle- partially depending on the guile of Hector Herrera and Hernandez. This will have to change if Mexico are going to pose an attacking threat against Brazil.

Firstly, Mexico have the personnel to pull off such a tactical shift. Their best player is clearly Lozano, one of the few ‘classical’ wingers who can play exclusively on the wing.

On the other side, Miguel Layun is a natural right-back who Osorio has been playing as a winger. In Jesus Gallardo, they also have a full-back who can bomb down the wing and accurately place crosses- Gallardo was arguably Mexico’s best player in their first two games.

Finally, Hernandez is the perfect poacher to finish crosses from the likes of Lozano, Layun and Gallardo.

Yet what makes this tactic necessary is the fact that Brazil’s weakness defensively lies on the wings. They have an excellent centre-back duo in Thiago Silva and Miranda, along with the defensive protection of Casemiro.

Thus, continuing to attack through the middle would be ineffectual. However, in terms of full-backs, Brazil’s first-choice right-back is not in Russia while Marcelo may not be available.

The Selecao may have to play a full-back duo of Fagner and Filipe Luis- both relatively inexperienced players.

Moreover, Brazil’s wingers (Neymar and Willian) are simply not going to track back. Thus, there will be acres of space for the likes of Lozano, Layun and Gallardo to exploit.

#3 Play Hugo Ayala not Rafael Marquez

Ayala did a fine job for El Tri against Germany as he was part of the defense that kept a clean sheet against the defending champions

Mexico suffered a huge blow in the Sweden game as their defensive stalwart Hector Moreno picked up a second booking which ruled him out of the game against Brazil.

Moreno has been one of Mexico’s best players over the last decade as his consistency in central defence has provided solidity to the El Tri. Moreno’s absence leads to a key decision for Osorio as he has had to decide who to play instead of Moreno.

Many sentimental Mexican fans will suggest that Rafael Marquez should be Moreno’s replacement.

Marquez is a Mexican legend who is playing in his fifth World Cup and has been preferred by Osorio as a substitute when Mexico have needed additional defensive solidity.

There is certainly a footballing argument for playing Marquez- he provides experience and composure to the Mexican defence.

However, the best decision would be to play Hugo Ayala. While Ayala is no youngster (being 31 years old), he is certainly more spritely than the ancient Marquez (who is 39). In fact, Ayala did a fine job for El Tri against Germany as he was part of the defense that kept a clean sheet against the defending champions.

Moreover, Ayala would be a better fit against the pace of Neymar and Gabriel Jesus. Mexico are still likely to be knocked out tomorrow but if they make these tactical changes, they will give themselves a chance.

---

Who do you think will emerge on top in this clash? Sound off your opinions in the comments section below!