NFL Preview: Handicapping the NFC

After last week’s preview of the NFL AFC, now is the time to take a look at the NFC and make play-off predictions that are sure to be wrong!

NFC East

4. Washington Redskins

Why they’ll stink: Red Grossman and John Beck. Need I say more? I will anyways. Their backfield features Ryan Torian (811 career rushing yards) and fourth round pick, Roy Helu, both of whom are unproven and will face eight and nine man fronts due to the lack of a passing game. Their “weapons” consist of Santana Moss, a number two or three receiver playing a number one’s role, Anthony Armstrong, a deep treat whose success last year was in large part due to Donovan McNabb’s arm strength, and tight end Chris Cooley, one of the best at his position but defenses will be able to focus in on him. The Redskin’s defensive prospects are slightly brighter with Pro Bowl-caliber players like Orakpo, Fletcher, Hall, Landry, and Atogwe, but they are still missing the most vital piece of a 3-4 defense: a dominant nose tackle.

Silver lining: For every non-Redskins fan, it will become pretty comical to a) watch Rex Grossman and John Beck actually start for an NFL team, and b) watch Mike Shanahan stand at the podium after every game and defend these quarterbacks, whom he has been hyping up throughout the off-season.

Key to the season: I’ll pretend for a paragraph that the Redskins actually have a quarterback and a chance to contend, and say that the defense has to lead the charge. They remedied their defensive line issues by adding a couple of former foes: ex-Giant Barry Cofield and ex-Cowboy, Stephen Bowen. These two will take on blockers for stud linebacker, Brian Orakpo, who had 19.5 sacks in his first two years, and veteran linebacker, London Fletcher, who made the Pro Bowl at last season at age 35. The secondary includes Pro Bowler Deangelo Hall and safeties, Laron Landry, and O.J. Atogwe, who not only compliment each other, but make up one of the best tandems in the league.

Over/Under 5 Wins: Ok, no more pretending, back to reality. They don’t have a quarterback and they play in a tough division. Under.

Random thought #1: I see rookie Ryan Kerrigan as one of those boom or bust “hybrid 4-3 defensive ends converting to a rush OLB” guys. The pre-draft reviews of him ranged anywhere from a “poor man’s Clay Matthews” to a “glorified effort guy,” and I think his career prospects match this wide range. Either he will adapt well to his new position and its various requirements, like teammate Brian Orakpo did, or he won’t, and will turn out to be a less athletic but equally ineffective Vernon Gholston. Then again, if things don’t work out at OLB, the Redskins could put 15 pounds on him and move him to defensive end where he’d be like Chirs Long, a player of similar skills.

Random thought # 2: I just wrote 450 words on a team that I told you would stink. I need to work on that whole pacing thing. Sorry.

3. New York Giants

Why they’ll fall short: A lot of question marks and a lot of distractions. Can Eli Manning give his team a chance and not throw three interceptions in “we need this win” games? Is Osi Umenyiora going to be traded or stick it out, and if he does, will he be a malcontent and how much will they give them? If the team struggles early on, or gets upset by say the Redskins, Rams, or Cardinals in the first month, will people call for Tom Coughlin’s head? If so, will it become that become a distraction? How will the Giants replace Kevin Boss and Steve Smith’s production?

Silver lining: A lot of these problems can be simply solved by a) Eli Manning playing like he can, and b) winning the games that they should.

Tom Coughlin’s hot seat will become even hotter if the Giants do not perform early on.

Key to the season: The first six games (Redskins, Rams, Eagles, Cardinals, Seahawks, and Bills). By my count, that’s five cupcakes and one contender. This just in: winning cures all in pro sports. All issues regarding trade rumors, malcontents, and hot seats will be quelled, at least temporarily, if they are 5-1 heading into the week 7 bye. Of course, finishing the season, rather than starting, has been this team’s problem in the past, so they will have to do that as well. You know what, just win all 16 games and you’ll be good.

Over/Under 10 Wins: Under, only because I think the Cowboys will surpass them in the division but I wouldn’t be surprised if both won 10 or more games.

Random thought: Either Osi Umeniyora actually went to class when he was at Troy, or we are all really dumb for believing that he wrote a word of that letter to the Associated Press.

2. Dallas Cowboys

Why they’re sort of back in the hunt: Tony Romo is one of the best regular season quarterbacks of all time (seriously look up the stats). They still have the same roster and cast of guys that we drooled over for years: Witten, Austin, Bryant, Gurode, Jones, Ware, Ratliff, Newman. The coaching change from Phillips to Garret can be overlooked either. It is not that Wade Phillips is a bad coach, it is just that he was a laid-back, happy go lucky kind of coach – not what that team needed. Jason Garret will bring more structure and discipline to the formerly lax Cowboys.

Mitigating factor #1: Who is the vocal leader on this team? Most of their top veterans – Witten, Ware, Austin, are not genuinely vocal guys and rather lead more by example than anything. Not to say that is a bad thing, but regardless, given this team’s recent collapses and disappointments, they need someone to fill that role. Tony Romo made an attempt to fill it this off season when he organized team workouts, but he hadn’t been a vocal guy until that point, and any sudden attempt to be seems contrived. One thing is certain though, we will find out if and who has filled that role for Dallas in the 4th quarter of a crucial games down the stretch.

Tony Romo: A regular season stat compiler or an elite quarterback?

Mitigating factor #2: They have an abundance of dynamic player makers, but who is going to carry the load for this ground game? Felix Jones only carried the ball more than 16 times in a game once last season (an overtime game vs. Indy), Tashard Choice has carried the ball 66 times last year, and Demarco Maury, a rookie, had an extensive injury history in his four years at Oklahoma. In a playoff game against the Eagles, when Nnamdi, Asante, and Cromartie, will have Austin, Bryant, and Witten on lock, and it’s a crucial 3rd and 3, I don’t know if running a screen pass or toss play for Felix Jones is going to cut it.

Key #1 to the season: Avoid elongated losing streaks. Last season, the Cowboys opened by losing consecutive games and then went on another skid that lasted five games. Then, following Wade Phillips’ firing, the Cowboys did not lose two consecutive games at any point for their final eight games. I don’t know if it was Wade Phillips being out, Jason Garret being in, or any other extrinsic factors, but the Cowboys did a good job of regrouping and moving forward after losses in the 2nd half, a quality that they will have to carry over into next season.

Key #2 to the season: This seems obvious, but Tony Romo, who has already graduated the Lebron James School of Regular Season Excellence, needs to start earning credits at the Robert Horry School of Postseason Excellence. In short, win some playoff games.

Over/Under 9 Wins: Over. Even though they have to face Giants (2x), Eagles (2x), Patriots, and Jets, they also slated to play the NFC West (4 very winnable games), the Redskins (2x), Lions, Bills, and Dolphins.

Random thought: The Cowboys, and more importantly Jon Kitna (ahhh!), were seven points in three games away from ending last year on a 8 game win streak. This would have legitimized the argument for “Tony Romo is the most overrated player, in the NFL.” Don’t shoot the messenger.

1. Philadelphia Eagles

Why they’re very much in the hunt: The NFL’s closest thing to the 2005 Phoenix Suns, only if Steve Nash were Derrick Rose. Fast break offense and a great, but I don’t know about elite, defense. Also, I think they acquired some guys in free agency.

Mitigating factor: Can you win a Super Bowl with Michael Vick as your quarterback? We don’t know because the last and only time he had gone as far as the NFC Championship was in 2004, when a) he was not only a totally different football player, but a person as well, and b.) he simply lost to a better Eagles team. Some of you may dismiss the question, but when have you recently have seen Michael Vick make a crucial throw on a crucial drive in a crucial playoff game? Fair or not, Michael Vick gets judged a little bit differently because he is a run-first quarterback. If the Eagles play the Packers in the NFC Championship, and Clay Matthews is coming off the edge every play, negating his mobility, will Mike Vick be able to step up in the pocket and throw a 20 yard strike past the outstretched arm of Charles Woodsen to Jeremy Maclin?

Key to the season: You spent the money, you made a statement, you called yourself a dream team, now you have to live up to expectations.

Over/Under 11.5 Wins: Over. Unlike other elite teams, the Eagles will not shift into cruise control at anything point this season. Their new additions will have the pedal to the metal, seeking to vindicate the hype.

Random thought: Even with all their big additions in free agency, the Eagles did not irresponsibly over-pay for a single one of them. They gave Nnamdi an average annual salary that was four million less than what he made last year. They gave Jason Babin a 28 million/ 5 year contract and Cullen Jenkins a 25 million/ 5 year, both of which are reasonable if they continue their level of play. And to top if off, they gave Vince Young, Ronnie Brown, and Ryan Harris all one year contracts, which is not only financially friendly, but, given that these players will be seeking new contracts after the season, incentive-based as well

NFC North

4. Chicago Bears

Why they will fall off: Fact: The Bears had no players on injured reserve or harshly affected by injuries. Fact: Every other team in their division was hindered by injuries; Detroit most notably with Matt Stafford, Minnesota with Sidney Rice and Brett Farve, and Green Bay with a Ryan Grant and Jermichael Finley. Fact: The Bears defense got to feast on third string quarterbacks three different times last season. Fact: Their offense ranked 30th in yards, 28th in passing, 22ndin rushing, last in sacks allowed, didn’t feature a 1,000 yard receiver, and their running back hardly eclipsed the mark with 1,069 rushing yards. All of that and you throw in the week 1 gift when they only won because Calvin Johnson had not held on to a game winning touchdown long enough. Not to say that the Bears success last year was pure luck, but a lot of things went in their favor.

Silver lining: If Jay Cutler is ever going to become an elite NFL quarterback, its going to be this year. I can’t think of a professional athlete with more hell to potentially unleash, with the possible exception of Lebron James. This guy has been taking crap ever since his rookie year about his body language, leadership, and high interception totals. Next fast forward to the NFC Championship, when not only fans but his football peers questioned his toughness and in some cases his manhood, when he left the game with a knee injury. The biggest blow came when he split with his fiancée, former Laguna Beach and Hills star Kristen Calaveri, one of few people in his corner recently. If I’m Jay Cutler, I grow a Tiger Woods post-scandal beard, throw 4 touchdown passes week 1 against New Orleans and then give the entire football world the finger and exit Solider Field WWE-style by throwing your equipment in the stands.

Jay Cutler could unleash hell on the league, or he could just be Jay Cutler.

Key to the season: Other than hoping Johnny Knox morphs into 2001 Randy Moss? The defense has to carry this team. If this team is going to come close to matching the 2010 season, then older players like Urlacher, Peppers, and Briggs have to experience the same good fortune with their health and play at a high level.

Over/Under 9.5 Wins: As you can already guess from the last place ranking, under. The Bears will likely have to deal with more injuries than last season, and will have a tougher slate of games this season.

Random thought: Has there ever been a tougher start to the season than the Bears will experience? First three games: Atlanta, at New Orleans, Green Bay. Holy schnikes.

3. Minnesota Vikings

Why they’ll fall short: Donovan McNabb has enough left in the tank to give the Vikings adequate quarterback play and help turn the ship around. Adrian Peterson is a workhorse who can hide some, but not all deficiencies. McNabb has enjoyed doing two things more than anything in his career: Throwing deep bombs and hitting the tight end. (Enter Percy Harvin and Visanthe Shiancoe.) Defensively, their big loss was defensive end Ray Edwards, but I suspect that they will find someone who can give them roughly eight sacks while rushing opposite of Jared Allen.

Why they could falter: A lot of ifs. If Donovan can bounce back; If Adrian Peterson endure another 300+ carries without a major injury; If they can replace the production of Sidney Rice and Ray Edwards; If the offense line can hold up.

Key to the season: Donovan McNabb’s consistency and decision making. We know they can run the football, we know they can play defense, we don’t know if McNabb is going to support or sabotage his team in the 4th quarter of games.

Over/Under 7.5 Wins: Over. Of course, if McNabb is awful and gets benched for rookie Christain Ponder, then they will be no where near over.

Random thought: Is Brad Childress winner of the Tony Kornheiser Look-a-Like contest three years in a row, or is Tony Kornheiser the winner of the Brad Childress Look-a-Like contest three years in a row. How are we supposed to settle these things?

2. Detroit Lions

Why they’re on the rise: I actually had the Lions being this good last season, but Matt Stafford missing 13 games and various misfortunes like the aforementioned week 1 incident vs. the Bears squandered the young Lions’ playoff chances. They have an abundance of young talent; Stafford, Johnson, Best, Pettigrew, Suh, Fairley Avril. Of course, young talent doesn’t always guarantee improvement.

Mitigating factor: They are starting to seem pretty snake bitten. Even after Matt Stafford missed 19 games in his first two seasons, two of their top draft picks, Nick Fairley and Mikel Leshoure, both have gone down with serious injuries since the start of camp. Fairley, broke his foot and will miss at least two months, and Leshoure torn his Achilles tendon and will miss the entire season. Fairley was expected to join forces with Suh and form a dominate inside tandem while the Lions were going to use Leshoure as their power back to complement Javid Best’s big play ability.

Key to the season: To put it all together and have the rebuilding plan in full fruition. Stafford has to catch up with his development, Jahvid Best has to continue to make big plays, Johnson and Suh have to remain elite, and the veterans have to provide steady leadership and guidance.

Over/Under 8 Wins: Over, barring any more devastating injuries. Of course this is a young team that has a tendency to let games slip away. The difference between 10-6 and 6-10 with them is finishing games in the fourth quarter.

Random thought: “Matt Stafford” is a pretty interesting Google Image search.

1. Green Bay Packers

Why they are the favorite: Best offense and defense in the NFC. Rejoining their already potent offense will be Ryan Grant (rushed for 2456 in the two years prior to his injury), and Jeremichael Finley, who might challenge Antonio Gates as top playmaking tight end this season. They have All Pro players at every level of the defense and thrive on not only stopping offenses but making plays, compiling 40 turnovers and 47 sacks last season.

The Packers getting Finley back could very well be the most impactful offseason acquisition.

Mitigating factor: Repeating and every challenge that comes with it; bigger target on your back, penchant of complacency, the “disease of more” (everybody wants more; more money, more playing time, more notoriety).

Key to the season: Overcoming the aforementioned hurdles and how well they integrate the many starters who are coming back from injury this season. The Packers need to reaffirm and establish their position as alpha dog in the season. They will get two prime chances within the first month of the season to do so: the kickoff game vs. New Orleans, and a month later at Atlanta.

Over/Under 12.5 Wins: Over. The richest only get richer with four starters coming back. The sky is seemingly the limit for the young defending champs.

Random thought: I have to imagine that Ryan Grant will have more motivation and drive to have a big year this season than any other running back in the league. He missed nearly all of last season with an ankle injury and had to watch his team make a Super Bowl run without him, and thus proving that they did not need him to do so. Add to that the fact that he is in a contract year, which given their fragile careers and proclivity for injuries, hold higher importance for running backs. (Hint: You might want to draft this guy in fantasy.)

NFC South

4. Carolina Panthers

Why they’re not there yet: The Panthers are apparently not going to just lie down while rebuilding with a rookie starting at quarterback. They signed and held onto many of their cornerstone players in the off season. Even though they will have the “thunder and lightning” combo of Stewart and Williams, they will struggle to move the ball at times as Cam Newton goes through his trials and tribulations. The defense will be solid with defensive end Charles Johnson and linebacker Jon Beason both returning.

Silver lining: It can’t be worse than last year. Then again, if Cam Newton doesn’t… never mind. Don’t worry it wont be more depressing than last year, Carolina fans.

Key to the season: No question, run the football. How were the 2008 Carolina Panthers able to defy the laws of modern football and go 12-4 with Jake “Paul Crewe” Delhomme at quarterback? They ran the football down their opponent throat 504 times and averaged 4.83 carries a pop. Deangelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart will have to pull off a similar performance this season against eight and nine man fronts in order to alleviate some of the pressure put on young Cam Newton.

Over/Under 4.5 Wins: Over. Everything went wrong offensively for the Panthers last year and they were much more talented than their win total indicated. Although they won’t have a major upgrade at quarterback, for now, there will be enough pieces around Cam Newton to keep them in games. Although they play in a fierce division, (every other team in their division won double digit games last year), they will be playing a last place schedule and the AFC South (three manageable games).

Random thought: Is it me or does Cam Newton have a really low ceiling for the first overall pick. Some have compared him to Vince Young (unfair and predicated mostly on race),and some people have compared him to Jamarcus Russell (really unfair and purely predicated on race).

We know this much: He is 6’5 248 lb. He played 14 games at the Division 1 level. He ran a hurry-up option offense that isn’t applicable to the pro game. His signature moment came against Alabama when he led his from a 24-0 hole to win 28-27 in a hostile environment. He is mildly accurate and mobile but not on a Donovan McNabb “I can run when I have to “kind of mobile, not Michael Vick “I run when I want to” level.

Final verdict: A sleeker, quicker, less strong Ben Roethlisberger on a bad passing day. That’s the best case scenario. The worst case scenario is a bigger Vince Young on a slightly off passing day with his head on straight and better intangibles.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Why they will drop off a bit: The nine different teams that they beat last season: Browns, Panthers, Bengals, Rams, Cardinals, 49ers, Redskins, Seahawks, and a Saints team that had nothing to play for in Week 17. They feasted on more cupcakes than John Goodman does on his birthday last year. Josh Freeman doesn’t have a single go-to weapon to work with. They didn’t have a single player reach five (five!!) sacks last year, and they ranked 28 against the pass. That is on the field. Off the field, cornerback Aquib Talib, one of the team’s best players, will inevitably be suspended for his role in a shooting incident in the off-season.

Silver Lining: Josh Freeman looks like a rising star. He shows great poise in the fourth quarter of tight games, and best of all, he doesn’t take his team out of games with make crucial errors (only 5 interceptions last year).

Josh Freeman will lead the league’s youngest team in Tampa next year.

Key to the season: Rise to the challenge of having to win games with a much tougher schedule.

Over/Under 9 Wins: Under. The Bucs could have easily gone 6-10 last season with a tougher schedule and displayed their youth when they failed to beat Detroit at home to clinch a playoff birth.

Random thought: I don’t want to reveal too many of my secrets (gunning for that title this year) but I would stay away from any Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the offensive side of the football this season. They had a lot of deceptive performances last year due to their soft schedule.

Also, the Bucs drafted five defensive linemen (Roy Miller, Gerald McCoy, Brian Price, Adrian Clayborne, Dequan Bowers.) with their first two picks in the past three drafts. That is a lot of defensive linemen. The question is whether they have quantity and quality, or just quantity instead of quality.

2. Atlanta Falcons

Why they are in the hunt: Their offense is one of the most explosive and balanced in the league. They can win slug-outs by grounding and pounding with Michael Turner and shootouts by allowing Matt Ryan to work with his array of weapons. Their defense will excel at getting after the quarterback with John Abraham and the newly added Ray Edwards (21 combined sacks last year), and shutting down receivers in the secondary with corners, Dunta Robinson and Brent Grimes, two of the best.

Why they could falter: Their divisional round playoff shellacking by Packers was a clear indication that they are not yet on par with the class of the NFC. Can they break through that “good but not great” wall.

Key to the season: Other than praying that Michael Turner can endure another 330 carry season, its Matt Ryan ascendance as an elite quarterback. He received the moniker, “Matty Ice,” during his rookie season, which was totally overblown and based solely on one comeback against the Ravens, but he has a chance to vindicate his reputation with a long playoff run this year. The Falcons have given him an abundance of weapons. We will likely find out this season if Matt Ryan will be elite or just ok for his career.

Over/Under 11 Wins: Under, only because I have them at about 10 wins. The schedule will be more rigorous than last season and they will likely deal with more injuries than last year.

Random thought: Julio Jones’ performance in March has to rank at the top of impressive combine showings of all time. The guy has a stress fracture in his foot, (which later required surgery), and all that he did was run a 4.39 40 yard dash, broad jump 11 feet 3 inches, and get a vertical of 38.5 inches.

1. New Orleans Saints

Why they’re in the hunt: Elite quarterback, a multitude of playmakers that they can go to (nine players who caught at least 29 passes last year), and a revamped defense with Aubrayo Franklin and Shaun Rodgers now joining Sedrick Ellis in anchoring the middle. The offense also received an upgrade with drafting of Mark Ingram, who is being compared to a young Emmitt Smith, and their special teams will reap the benefits of Darren Sproles’ services.

Mark Ingram could be the boost that the Saints need to get back to the Super Bowl.

Why they could falter: The Saints became too dependent on Drew Brees last year. Their running game was bottom five in the league, their special teams dropped off, and the defense had fewer sacks, interceptions, and turnovers than it did the season prior. The Saints did a lot to rectify these problems in the off season by signing the aforementioned Sproles, Franklin, and Rodgers, but many of the heroes from their Super Bowl run will have to return to a higher level of play.

Key to the season: Their defense getting back to its pressure-based, play making ways. Last season the Saints leader in sacks was tackle Sedrick Ellis with 6, and as a team they ranked dead last in interceptions. Will Smith, Alex Brown, and rookie Cameron Jordan have to lead the pass rush off the edge and force off balance throws to which the secondary has to capitalize on.

Over/Under 10.5 Wins: Over. The Saints will be raring to re-claim their place as NFC alpha dog and will be in a season-long race with Atlanta for division crown and a potential first round bye. The improved run game will lessen the week-to-week pressure on Drew Brees to bail the Saints out with 300 yard performances.

Random thought: The Saints offense, which epitomizes today’s NFL offenses that are principled on spreading the ball and capitalizing on individual mismatches rather than deferring to one or two special weapons, has to make you wonder what kind of ramifications “real” football offenses will have on fantasy football in the future. The Saints had the third ranked passing offense in the league last year (good in real football), but only had one player come close to 1000 yards, Marques Colston, and had no recivers compile more than eight touchdowns (bad for fantasy football). The same can be said for other elite passing teams like New England and Green Bay.

If the old cliche, that the NFL is a copy cat league, holds true, won’t more teams duplicate these passing models of utilizing more recivers? This would in effect mean that the days of top receivers having 1,600 yard seasons and 16 touchdown seasons would be a thing of the 2000’s. Players like Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson would still remain the most valuable in comparison to other receivers simply because they would still get the most passes thrown their way because they are talented enough to beat coverage and get open, but their value would diminish in comparison to quarterbacks and running backs.

Fantasy football was directly affected in the middle of the decade when real football started to use running backs by committee and not one workhorse ‘back. I think we are headed towards a similar “receiver by committee” in real football and fantasy football have to, again, adjust accordingly.

NFC West

4. Seattle Seahawks

Why they will stink: I thought we had already established that Tavaris Jackson isn’t a starting NFL quarterback. The Seahawks apparently missed that realization, and don’t have a bell cow running back nor a go-to receiver. They were talent deprived last season and the loss of Lofa Tatupu, their defensive leader, did not help at all. The Seahawks attempted to improve via free agency, but really just ended up adding players for the sake of it.

I have a feeling that Seahawks fans will be missing Matt Hasselbeck at some point this season.

Silver lining: Maybe I’m wrong about Tavarias Jackson. Maybe he never got a fair shake at being the guy in Minnesota. He was never able to develop the “I’m the man, this is my team” mentality that is so crucial for the quarterback position because he was constantly worried about being pulled, or Brett Farve flying into camp in his cape a week before the season started and consequently being pushed aside. Let’s not forget the last quarterback to sit behind and get screwed by Brett Farve before becoming a full time starter won the Super Bowl MVP in February.

Key to the season: Take advantage of the weak divison. The NFC West is the only division in which you could convince me that any of the four teams will win it. I can’t get a good grasp of it. It doesn’t take a lot to win it. If Jackson is better than expected, then Seattle has enough fire power to win the divison, especially if young St. Louis falters and loses games they shouldn’t.

Over/Under 5 Wins: Under. They will need to take advantage of the softer teams within the division because they will not get many breaks outside of it.

Random thought: Does Charlie Whitehurst think that this whole “Jim Caviezel in Passion of the Christ” look is helping his helping his career or something? He is about one lame duck interception away from becoming the Savior for the Toronto Argonauts.

3. Arizona Cardinals

Why they still need some work: Do not assume that just because they got their quarterback (whom the jury is still out on anyways) that they will rise to the top of the division. This team let a lot of veterans in free agency without, seemingly, a plan to replace them. They lost running back Tim Hightower, who isn’t anything special but he did have 736 of Arizona’s league worst 1388 rushing yards. On offense, they also lost Steve Breaston, the only receiver who had a chance of taking attention away from Fitzgerald, and on defense they lost Dominque Rodgers Cromartie, one of their few red chip players. Defensively, the Cardinals run a 3-4 defense but lack the pass rushers at linebacker to cut the quarterback’s throwing time and make it work.

Silver lining: If you are a Cardinals fan, you now have a competent NFL quarterback. Even if your win total doesn’t rise this year, you can rest easy knowing that you have a quarterback that you can start to build around, and that isn’t easy to find.

Key to the season: Beanie Wells. Ken Wisenhunt and Russ Grimm have wanted to implement a physical, run oriented offense since they came to Arizona, but they havent found the personal to do so. Beanie Wells is big, powerful running back who seems to fit the bill on paper but has yet to stay healthy and consistently produce (just ask his fantasy owners). The Cardinals will be banking on him becoming the back they envisioned when they drafted him 31^st overall in 2009, and compliment Kevin Kolb and the passing game. If he doesn’t, then he will quickly be replaced by second round pick, Ryan Williams, and possibly looking for a job.

Over/Under 6 Wins: Even. They could easily start the season 3-0 with a very manageable start to the season (Carolina, Washington, and Seattle). What they will do with the momentum and confidence may determine their fate for the rest of the season.

Random thought: I don’t have one for the Cardinals, but the good news is that there is only one more college football-less weekend and three NFL-less weekends left in 2011.

2. San Francisco 49ers

Why they will fall short: They just have too many question marks and holes, starting with quarterback, Alex Smith. Frank Gore hasn’t played a full season since 2006 and is now holding out of camp because of a contractual dispute. The team let nose tackle Aubrayo Franklin go even after Patrick Willis specifically said, “I pray to God they keep Aubrayo.” Jim Harbaugh might be a little bit in over his head during his first year in San Francisco.

Silver lining: They don’t have a lot more holes and question marks than the rest of the division.

Key to the season: If Frank Gore can stay healthy (big if), the 49ers should and will have to be able to run the football with their offensive line. Also, can Alex Smith muster up a couple of deep strikes to Crabtree, Edwards, and Davis?

Over/Under 6 Wins: Over, although that is tentative because rookie quarterback Colin Kaepernick will struggle will given the starting job and the team will likely shift into cruise control for the remainder of the season.

Random thought: After hitting the free agent market expecting to get a contract similar to that of ex-teammate Santonio Holmes, Braylon Edwards was forced to take a modest 3 million/1 year deal with the 49ers. This means that Edwards will not only be playing with a chip on his shoulder because he didn’t not get the contract he wanted, but will also be playing for a bigger contract at the end of the season. Can you say, “Throw me the damn football?”

1. St. Louis Rams

Why they have arrived: The Rams showed of a lot of promise last season but, like most young teams, didn’t finish games and maintain focus week-to-week. However, expect this team to have learned their lessons and grow up this season. Of course Sam Bradford’s development will be crucial, and that is why the Rams went out and signed receiver Mike Sims Walker and guard Harvey Dahl to improve his supporting cast. Last year, the defense excelled at pressuring the quarterback, not surprising for a Steve Spagnuolo coached defense, and rookie defensive end Robert Quinn will only add to their pass rush.

Why they could falter: A lot is being put on Sam Bradford’s shoulders. It is pretty common that, despite expectations usually being high, “sophomore” quarterbacks don’t break out in their second year because defensive coordinators now have a season’s worth of film on them. That and some are just not there in their development. In the past, this was true for quarterbacks like Joe Flacco, Mark Sanchez, and Matt Ryan. Steven Jackson will be there to take pressure off of Sam Bradford, but he will still be asked to make a lot of players appear better than they actually are.

Sam Bradford’s development will be crucial for a Rams division title.

Key to the season: Consistency; both individually as players and collectively as a team. Also, take advantage of the softer division. If the Rams, who project to be the best team, can take care of business within the division and go 5-1 or 6-0 , they are almost guarantee to finish atop, given the that non-divisional wins are hard to come by for the NFC West.

Over/Under 8.5 Wins: Not only are they going to win the division but do it in style with nine whole wins. The schedule makers did them no favors, with their first seven games being Philadelphia, the Giants, Baltimore, Washington, Green Bay, Dallas, and New Orleans. But fear not Rams fans, because if they can make it through that wild fire of a slate with just two wins, the final nine go as such: Arizona, Cleveland, Seattle, Arizona, San Francisco, Seattle, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and San Francisco. The Rams could very plausibly win seven of those nine to finish 9-7, atop the division.

Random thought: I have spent so much time working on this wicked awesome Hindsight Sport two-part NFL Preview, that my Michael Hoomanawanui just fell asleep. Oh wait, its my C.J. Ah You that is asleep.

My 2011 “with a gun to my head” playoff prediction :

(Keep in mind that because of the lockout, young and rebuilding teams did not have as much of a opportunity to improve and grow as a team in the off season, so like it or not, we will be seeing mostly the same old teams, especially those with elite, steady quarterbacks in playoffs. That’s just my theory.)

AFC Playoffs

1. Patriots

2. Steelers

3. Chargers

4. Colts

5. Ravens

6. Jets

NFC Playoffs

1. Packers

2. Saints

3. Eagles

4. Rams