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As the on-going AFC Asian Cup 2019 approaches the round-of-16 stage, the competition in the respective groups is heating up as all the teams are looking to enter the knockout phase of the tournament.
Having won their first match, India - in group A with UAE, Thailand, and Bahrain - are still one of the firm favourites to make it to the next round of the tournament. After four matches, the group has opened up wide with a chance for all four teams to make it to the next round.
After a defeat in their first match, Thailand have given themselves a lifeline with a 1-0 win against Bahrain. UAE who drew against Bahrain, denied India a chance to secure qualification with their 2-0 win on January 10.
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The current scenario has UAE topping the table with 4 points. They require just a draw against Thailand with all the other three teams looking for a win in their last group stage match.
It's not just the top two who will make the Round of 16. Even four of the best third-placed teams have a chance to make the knockouts.
So what does India need to do against Bahrain to qualify for the Round of 16? Here are the scenarios.
Scenario 1: India win against Bahrain
India will manage to sail through to the next round if they secure 3 points against Bahrain, taking them to 6 points with an assurance of a top 2 finish from the group. Now the scenario will be left to Thailand and UAE’s match to see if India top the group or not.
- If Thailand wins and UAE Loses
If Thailand (currently on 3 points) win against UAE(currently on 4 points), both Thailand and India will be tied at 6 points and it will be left to the head-to-head result which is the first tiebreaker between two teams on level points. Since India beat Thailand 4-1, India will go to the next round as the table topper.
- If Thailand and UAE draw
In case of a draw between UAE and Thailand, Thailand will be stranded on 4 points, giving UAE the ticket to the next round, who will be second in the group with 5 points. It will also suit India better as they will be the automatic table toppers from the group. Thailand will have to wait for the results from all the groups to see if they qualify as one of the best third-placed teams.
- If Thailand loses and UAE wins
UAE will be the table toppers with 7 points if they manage to go past Thailand in the final league game and India fair second from the group.
India will be hoping for a top of the table finish in order to get an easier opponent in the next round.
Next slide: What happens if India draw or lose to Bahrain?
Scenario 2: India draws with Bahrain
If India draw with Bahrain, India would find themselves at 4 points and they would hope that UAE at least win or draw with Thailand. In that case, India will be tied on 4 points with Thailand and would go through to the next round, courtesy their head-to-head result against the Thai side in the first match.
However, if UAE lose to Thailand, India’s chances would further diminish as they will be tied for the third spot in the group. In that case, India would hope to qualify as one of the four third-placed teams but that would depend on the results of the matches of the other groups.
India have a goal difference of +1 currently which could play a part going forward.
Scenario 3: India lose to Bahrain
If India fail to salvage even a single point from the game, they would still have some faint hope of qualifying, only if UAE manages to beat Thailand. In such a scenario, India will sit on the 3rd spot with three points and Thailand on 4th and India would hope to qualify as of the best third-placed team in the competition.
However, if UAE lose or draw with Thailand, India would make an exit from the competition as the last-placed team from the group.
With all three scenarios on the cards, India still have the ball in their court and would look for nothing less than a win against Bahrain
