WAR (Win Above Replacement) Ratings for football players: What is it? How is it calculated?

If you’ve ever thought that the world of football statistics was an immensely saturated one, you couldn't have been wrong. That said, there currently does not exist any statistical measures for fans to gauge the value of a player to a certain team, on a numerical scale.

It is with this sentiment that Sportskeeda, in collaboration with our partners Anish Anandaram & Archit Prem, will be generating statistical content focusing on:

• WAR (Win Above Replacement) Ratings for football players

The concept of WAR ratings is traditionally a staple in American sports; you may have come across the concept while watching the blockbuster Brad Pitt movie, “Moneyball”. Very simply put, it assesses the numerical value of a player to a given team by estimating the number of additional team wins the given player is contributing to.

This concept hasn’t been recreated for (non-American) football statistics, and we are excited to be one of the pioneers in exploring how to determine a player’s value to a given team. We believe that ultimately, this exercise will yield immense value for fans as it helps them understand the importance of many players- through the data and numbers.

Through this partnership, we’ll be generating content which provides you with numerical estimates of how valuable your favorite players are to their respective teams — which will definitely come in handy during your next heated football debate!

Liverpool striker Roberto Firmino in action

The one important footnote, however, is that since the WAR Rating concept is practically a novel/non-existent one in football, our numerical rating isn’t meant to determine the additional number of wins that the player contributes to his team.

For example, MLB superstar Cody Bellinger, a baseball player for the Los Angeles Dodgers, had a WAR Rating in 2019 of 5.0, according to ESPN. This means that Bellinger’s contributions are helping the LA Dodgers win an estimate of 5 additional games, all factors constant.

However, if Roberto Firmino happens to have a WAR Rating of 5.8 (arbitrary example), that wouldn’t imply that his contributions help Liverpool win an additional 5.8 games, all factors constant. Instead, we urge you to view the football WAR Ratings as a relative scale of numerical value; the higher the WAR value, the more useful the player, and vice-versa.

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To help you categorize the different ratings into tiers, this may be helpful:

• A WAR Rating of 1-7 is considered the baseline tier (*for the players that we are sampling, which are largely top-half team Premier League players). *It is important to note that great players may have a rating that falls into this category, owing to the fact that they haven’t been active for too many seasons. The longer they play, the likelier they are to increase their rating.
• 7-15 is an impressive tier; it shows that the player is a key component of the team’s system, and contributes a great amount to their success
• 16+ is top tier; the team’s most useful players and often, among football’s most elite pool of players as well

Lastly, the following are the formulae through which we arrive at the players’ respective ratings. The formulae may vary depending on the player’s position, but rest assured, that they factor in all the important elements of that respective position.

Since we are currently sampling exclusively offensive players, the 2 formulae are as follows, for midfielders and frontline players (strikers), respectively:

Midfielders’ WAR formula:

[ (Goals + assists + big chances created + through balls) * Goals/Game * Positional Adjustment Value / (Losses * 0.1) ]

Striker WAR formula:

[ (Goals + assists + big chances created) * Goals/Game * Positional Adjustment Value / (Losses * 0.1) ]

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*IMPORTANT NOTES ABOUT FORMULAE

• As we mentioned earlier, the formula varies slightly depending on a player’s position. The purpose of the “Positional adjustment value” factors in this positional disparity in the formula- through extensive research of multiple publications pertaining to football science and teammate roles, we’ve determined that the positional adjustment values for midfielders are 0.75, while it is 0.6 for strikers. The assumption being that midfielders have a slightly higher positional value owing to the fact that they cover more distance and are generally more involved in a game over 90 minutes as opposed to strikers, when all factors are constant.
• You may notice that the midfielder formula includes a component “Big chances created”. For those wondering, the Premier League defines “big chances created” as follows, “A 'big chance created' is defined as providing an opportunity where the receiving player would reasonably be expected to score and manages to get a shot away”.

Neymar, Messi and Ronaldo at the Ballon D'or gala

We hope you follow this WAR initiative closely as we attempt to bring a truly revolutionary concept to football statistics! Check us out on Instagram to stay updated!

This article was curated & written by Anish Anandaram