2025 Thermal Club IndyCar Grand Prix: Preview and Predictions

It is race week in IndyCar again with the series heading to Thermal, California, for the inaugural full-length race at the Thermal Club circuit. The 17-turn, 3.067-mile circuit hosted a non-championship race in 2024 named the $1 million challenge, which Alex Palou easily won after leading all 20 laps.

In addition to the bragging rights earned by winning the $500,000 from the $1.756 million purse last year, the three-time champ goes into the second race weekend of 2025, having won the season-opener at St. Petersburg on March 2. Palou wasn't on any analyst's winner's prediction because he started the race in P8, but emphatically displayed why he's the defending champion.

Let's take a look at what awaits IndyCar teams and drivers for the series' full-time debut in Thermal.

2025 Thermal Club IndyCar Grand Prix Preview

A "very challenging" track awaits

The Thermal Club is a motorsport-centered home for the rich, with the racing circuit as its core selling point. Spread over 426 acres, it boasts custom homes and villas with trackside homes costing over $10 million, as per FOX News.

The first full-length event at the permanent circuit will have 65 laps, compared to the 20-lap feature race last year. While IndyCar teams got a fair assessment of tire degradation, the track nature, and expected weather with the 2024 race taking place during the same time of year, the shorter race didn't warrant race strategies. Moreover, this will be the first time all drivers take to the Thermal track with hybrid engines on their cars, throwing another variable in the mix.

Colton Herta's short circuit preview should give you a good idea of what's coming at the Thermal Club IndyCar Grand Prix.

"The best part about Thermal Club is probably the layout has a nice twist of low-speed and high-speed corners. And it’s quite a narrow and low-grip track, so it’s very challenging. We’ve been there before, but we’ve only done up to 10 laps on a set of tires. A full race will bring a whole new set of challenges," the Andretti Global driver said via FOX News.

The pecking order after the Grand Prix of St. Petersburg

After the first race of 2025, it became crystal clear that the battle for wins remains between Chip Ganassi Racing and Team Penske. Palou and Dixon scored a 1-2 for CGR, with Penske's Newgarden and McLaughlin earning a 3-4.

Andretti Global was in victory contention with Herta before pit stop trouble pushed him down the order. However, his teammates Kirkwood and Ericsson secured a crucial 5-6 finish. Arrow McLaren had an off weekend with Lundgaard as the best performer in P8, but Pato O'Ward's charge from P23 to P11 made the highlight reel.

Meyer Shank Racing was the surprise element in qualifying, locking out the second row. However, Armstrong DNFed and their race pace didn't allow Rosenqvist to finish higher than P7. Dale Coyne Racing's Rinus Veekay secured P9, recording the team's first Top 10 finish since 2023. ECR's Alexander Rossi secured the final spot in the Top 10.

AJ Foyt Racing was the best of the rest, which included IndyCar debutant PREMA Racing getting off to a respectable start with a 19-20 finish.

Three Predictions for the Thermal Club IndyCar Grand Prix

The 'Thirsty Threes' will overpower Alex Palou for the win

INDYCAR Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg - Day 2 - Source: Getty

Scott McLaughlin became the talk of the town after winning pole position at St. Pete. However, a lap 1 crash put him at a strategic disadvantage, while Alex Palou hit all the right notes with Chip Ganassi Racing delivering a flawless race strategy to help him up from P8 to victory.

At the Thermal Club last year, it was McLaughlin who finished runner-up to Palou, but this year, we're backing the New Zealand driver's 'Thirsty Threes' squad to push him over the line first.

Arrow McLaren will have at least two cars in the Top 10

McLaren's IndyCar team has been struggling for consistency in the recent past, much like its F1 team did until 2024. However, the Grand Prix of St. Petersburg was an anomaly for them. Pato O'Ward's qualifying struggles stemmed from getting the newly-introduced alternate tires in the right window, and Nolan Siegel had fate against him, with Will Power taking him out in Lap 1 of the race.

The British team definitely had the pace for all three cars finishing in the Top 10. Our slightly conservative prediction would be O'Ward in the Top 5, Lundgaard behind him inside the Top 10, and Siegel not one place behind P15.

Surprise entrant on the podium

Kyle Kirkwood had an absolute ball at St. Petersburg. Coming off of a career-best standings finish in 2024, the Andretti Global driver checked his first Top 5 of the season. He claimed that the team's cars had championship-caliber "Penske pace."

However, the racer inside him wasn't content with a Top 5. Kirkwood's eyes were on the top step of the podium, and what better to advance his campaign than to make the best of mass uncertainty for the new race to earn a podium and take a step towards his main goal? After all, he is the only driver in IndyCar history to win all championships in the junior categories.