3 reasons why Charles Oliveira will defeat Dustin Poirier and 2 reasons he won't

Charles Oliveira started his UFC journey in 2010. Initially, the submission specialist tried to make waves at 145-pounds, though kept falling short to elite competition. With time and development, 'Do Bronx' made the change to lightweight and hasn't looked back. Following a massive nine-fight winning streak, he fought Michael Chandler for the title Khabib Nurmagomedov vacated.

Battered and on the brink of defeat, things were looking bleak for Oliveira when he faced Chandler at UFC 262. Through the course of the first round, the Brazilian was dropped and nearly finished. In a display of perseverance, he came out refreshed in the second round and won their epic title affair by TKO.

It took less than a minute into the second round for Charles Oliveira to cement his status as the new lightweight champion. The title victory was monumental considering the length of time the Brazilian spent fighting with the UFC.

While some were critical of Oliveira's opponent Chandler for the lack of UFC experience, those notions will soon be put to bed. The No. 1 lightweight contender Dustin Poirier will vie for undisputed gold in the final pay-per-view of the year.

Today, we examine three reasons why Charles Oliveira will realize his first title defense, and two reasons why he won't.

#5. Charles Oliveira and his strength of schedule

A slew of opponents Charles Oliveira has faced prepared him for a fight with 'The Diamond'. In 2020, 'Do Bronx' earned a submission victory against Kevin Lee. Despite Lee missing weight, Charles Oliveira displayed improved striking during his victory.

Next, Charles Oliveira resumed his octagon momentum when he was paired with the highly ranked Tony Ferguson. The performance spoke volumes about his lightweight ceiling. In fact, Charles Oliveria surprised many with his striking acumen. The Brazilian nullified 'El Cucuy' with volume. Despite not being a traditional striker, Charles Oliveira outstuck Ferguson en route to a decision win.

The lightweight champion has fought twenty-eight times with the UFC. Without a doubt, a decade of fighting the UFC's top contenders has prepared him for his first title defense against Poirier at UFC 269 on Dec. 11.

Charles Oliveira has become an icon of the sport. Once perceived as a fighter without a destination, the 32-year-old realized his potential to become the UFC lightweight champion.

#4. Charles Oliveira has improved as a striker

During his early time in the UFC, Charles Oliveira struggled with weight at 145-pounds. Throughout his experience at featherweight he showed signs of brilliance but faltered under pressure. Revitalized again at 155-pounds, Oliveira has developed his striking to compliment his style.

'Do Bronx' can focus less on being taken down, since the consequences of going to the canvas with him are so dire. With nineteen career submissions, Charles Oliveira holds the record for most submission victories in the UFC. With a back pocket full of submissions, Oliveira can commit to his strikes now more than ever.

Charles Oliveira has made drastic improvements to his striking repertoire. The lightweight champion utilizes a prodding teep kick to keep opponents from applying too much pressure. In the opening frame against Chandler, he used the same push teep kick to establish range in round one.

The teep kick is a staple for his striking toolbox. In addition, during his 2020 bouts with Kevin Lee and Tony Ferguson, Charles Oliveira showed improvements in his striking, as well as a renewed ability to withstand punishment.

Despite being a prominent Brazilian jui-jitsu practitioner, Oliveira put his striking skills to use during his rise up the ranks. Most notably, the Brazilian's right hand became a powerful weapon. With the addition of his teeps and leg kicks, Charles Oliveira has become a slick striker and, of course, an even more dangerous finisher.

#3. Finishing Instincts

One of the leading reasons Charles Oliveira will defeat Dustin Poirier is his affinity for finishes. The lightweight champion holds the record for most finishes in UFC history. Oliveira may struggle to get Poirier to the canvas, but the evolution in his striking will be critical to his first successful title defense.

11-time performance of the night bonus recipient, Charles Oliveira is always in exciting fights. The turning point, which led to his epic title run, started with New York's Jared Gordon. The two fought in 2019, and Oliveira demonstrated a new level of stand-up.

The maturation in his footwork continued to develop, and when he faced Tony Ferguson a year later, the Brazilian native used it to great success. Though, his submission attempts were close to finishing the contest on a number of occasions

Charles Oliveira's style lends itself to ending the fight by submission or TKO/knockout. With the ability to snatch necks and create openings for unexpected submissions, the lightweight champion has options.

Charles Oliveira uses a variety of submissions. While he has scored on arm-bars and Anaconda chokes, his primary submission of choice is the guillotine choke. In fact, the guillotine pairs excellently with the forward pressure style of 'Do Bronx' and also when defensive tactics are necessary.

The UFC 269 lightweight title fight will test the resolve of both combatants. For the sake of clarity, let's take a closer look at two reasons why Charles Oliveira won't be able to defeat Dustin Poirier in their prospective battle for gold.

#2. Poirier appears to be more battle-tested than Charles Oliveira

Nowadays, Charles Oliveira has proven himself to be a champion with heart, fortitude and skill. However, back in his younger days, and especially at 145-pounds, the lightweight struggled with durability and output the later the fight dragged on.

'The Diamond' has shown durability, grit and tenacity in many of his recent UFC bouts. Prior to his success in the trilogy saga against Conor McGregor, the No. 1-ranked lightweight made a name for himself through bloody wars with Justin Gaethje, Dan Hooker, and Max Holloway.

Dustin Poirier's fight against Max Holloway showcased unworldly toughness. The contest went five, painful rounds and the pace each athlete put forth was mind boggling. In the end, Poirier would finally taste gold for the first time in his career, albeit interim gold.

With unshakeable durability and heart, Poirier's willingness to go into deep waters may be his best asset when he faces Charles Oliveira. This will be the second undisputed lightweight title attempt for 'The Diamond'.

#1. Dustin Poirier's striking output could pose problems for Charles Oliveira

Dustin Poirier is more willing to go towards the fire than Charles Oliveira. Meaning, the No. 1-ranked lightweight is more willing to take risks. In a title fight of this magnitude, that is a dangerous opponent.

According to UFC stats, 'The Diamond' is landing at a much higher clip in his respective octagon outings. While Oliveira absorbs fewer strikes than Poirier, the Louisiana native has finishing power and is willing to trade in the pocket to exact victory.

The former interim champion weaponized his striking output against Dan Hooker in June of 2020. While he was unable to start as fast as 'The Hangman', he at least controlled the pace of the action through the course of the fight. Dustin Poirier is a jack of all trades, and offensively is one of the more sound lightweights on the roster.

UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier approaches and both athletes have the weapons to end the night with gold around their waists. The seasoned champion will be met with a very durable and battle tested veteran of the game on the last pay-per-view of the year.