3 reasons Conor McGregor will win against Dustin Poirier at UFC 264 and 2 reasons he won't

Conor McGregor and Dustin Poirier's long-standing rivalry is about to reach its conclusion in their trilogy fight at UFC 264 on July 10, 2021, at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

The rivalry started with their featherweight fight at UFC 178. McGregor won the initial bout in the first round by TKO. Seven years later, they faced each other in a lightweight bout at UFC 257, where a much bigger Poirier avenged his loss with a second-round TKO.

With scores tied at 1-1, both fighters have agreed to settle their feud in a third fight. Fans still have faith in 'Mystic Mac' and continue to weigh the odds in his favor. However, some factors could play against the Irishman.

On that note, let's look at three reasons Conor McGregor will win against Dustin Poirier at UFC 264:

3) McGregor is the better striker from a distance

McGregor makes the most of his reach advantage by throwing his strikes from outside the pocket area. In most of his professional MMA fights, he has scored first or second-round victories over his opponents by stunning them with a well-timed shot from a distance. His opponents usually find themselves on the receiving end of McGregor's strikes because they come from a further range than they're accustomed to.

To further complement his sense of distance, McGregor has a variety of strikes in his arsenal, which he uses depending on the situation. He gauges his opponents' positions and movement patterns to land the correct variation of a strike.

In contrast to this, Dustin Poirier is not good at striking from a distance. Poirier also has a tendency to engage in brawls, which makes him vulnerable to distant counter-attacks if he steps inside the pocket. As much as Poirier was given credit for having landed several calf kicks in his previous fight with McGregor, he is also susceptible to them when he closes the distance to brawl.

2) McGregor has improved his cardio

Ever since his loss to Poirier, McGregor has been training aggressively to improve his cardio and endurance. To make this more evident, the Irishman posted stories on his social media while training in Dubai earlier in April. He was seen jogging by the sea while explaining his workout. He said:

"What's up everyone? Welcome to the McGregor Fast triathlon. We run 100kilometres, we cycle 20 kilometres and then we run another 10 kilometres. We run twice because we double run the game and we leave out the swimming because we're already swimming in it."

1) Poirier is a southpaw

Dustin Poirier is a southpaw fighter. The biggest disadvantage for a southpaw is that the right side of their body, which holds the liver, is placed in the front. It makes them susceptible to being struck on the liver, unlike in an orthodox stance where the right side of your body is at the back.

Knowing this, southpaws usually take extra care to protect their liver with a stiff guard or body movement to prevent themselves from getting knocked out by a liver shot. Poirier does not do enough of either. Whenever he is swarmed with strikes to the head, Poirier often ends up raising his hands to protect his head at the cost of exposing the right side of his body for a liver shot.

Although McGregor is a southpaw fighter himself, he is at an advantage here due to his longer reach and kicking expertise. 'The Notorious' has always aimed for all of his opponents' heads to end his fights, while keeping the body as a secondary target. However, if he chooses to make the right side of the body a primary target in this fight, he is bound to win the contest early. McGregor can either feint with strikes to the head or land them with less intent, only to make Poirier focus on defending his head. Once McGregor establishes a false intent to go for Poirier's head, 'Diamond' is likely to raise his guard. Poirier's raised hands would leave a clear opening for McGregor to exploit his opponent's liver.

Now we move on to the reasons why McGregor could lose at UFC 264. Here are two reasons he won't win against Poirier at UFC 264:

2) McGregor's potential boxing match with Manny Pacquiao

A day before McGregor's TKO victory over Donald Cerrone at UFC 246, Manny Pacquiao's right-hand man Sean Gibbons made a post on Instagram which touted a potential boxing match between McGregor and the only eight-division champion in boxing history.

On being asked if McGregor would like to be part of the event at the UFC 246 post-fight press conference, McGregor said:

" Yeah, that's the new football stadium is it? I would be honored to be part of that event."

He went on to say:

"What a fight that would be against Manny right? A small powerful southpaw, I'd have to figure out the weight in these type of things, but something that interests me no doubt."

McGregor was later seen at the UFC Performance Institute in Enterprise, Nevada, a few weeks before his second fight with Poirier at UFC 257. McGregor posted a short video that had clips from his training session at UFC P.I. on his Instagram. It was observed in this video that McGregor had changed his fighting stance to a traditional boxing-based stance.

McGregor has moved away from his upright body position and relatively low guard from the previous stance that allowed him to be more fluid and proactive. The new stance has left the Irishman more flat-footed and sluggish as he has his body in a more square position along with a high guard. Although this stance would allow a fighter to have a lot of offensive ability, it has one major flaw. McGregor puts an uneven amount of weight on his lead leg.

Going into his second fight with Poirier, McGregor's stance was exploited by 'Diamond.' Poirier landed several leg kicks that made it sore enough to limit the Irishman's offensive movements. Then, after finding McGregor unable to move at his best ability, Poirier went inside the Irishman's range without hesitation and landed punches that knocked him out.

McGregor needs to keep potential boxing matches out of his mind as long as he's competing in the octagon. The temptation to make money through big boxing matches is hard to resist; however, MMA demands focus and commitment. If McGregor does not respect the tenets of the sport, he might lose to Poirier again.

1) McGregor is not the same fighter he was

Fans could speculate that McGregor's riches have gotten to his head. The Irishman is now a business tycoon, which gives the impression that he's not as hungry as he used to be. Controversies and allegations related to him don't help to prove otherwise.

However, McGregor has continued to fight despite making all the money he needs. He is now cordial and friendly before fights, making fans believe that the Irishman is tired of engaging in trash talk.

His recent loss to Poirier was also disappointing for fans. To make it worse, he used inactivity because of the pandemic as an excuse for his lackluster performance, a shocking excuse by the Irishman's lofty standards.