#3 Choice of opponent
When CM Punk was debuting in the UFC, his very first opponent in the Octagon was a fighter who already had two wins on his record. Mickey Gall had defeated his last two opponents, even getting Mike Jackson to tap out via the Rear Naked Choke, a weapon he has since used. Incidentally, that was the same move he used to take out CM Punk.
JW Kiser on the other hand, while a good fighter, is not really from the top of the heap. He has one loss in his professional record, and his amateur record is not too impressive either.
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Kiser has three losses and one win in his amateur career, making for only one win in his entire MMA run. Now facing Jack Swagger at a high stakes bout, the pressure might be too much for him.
Swagger might have enough mat wrestling prowess to outdo Kiser.