4 reasons why Conor McGregor will beat Donald 'Cowboy' Cerrone at UFC 246

We’re just 12 days away now from the UFC's first show of 2020, and it’s a big one; UFC 246 takes place from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, and will see a main event for the ages, as Irish superstar Conor McGregor returns to take on arguably the most exciting fighter in the sport, Donald ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone.

The fight will be contested at 170lbs – despite both men usually fighting at 155lbs or lower – and it’s a tough one to pick, with both men having clear strengths and weaknesses.

An argument has already been made for why Cerrone will win, so here is a counter-point: 4 reasons why Conor McGregor will beat Donald ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone at UFC 246.

1. McGregor can break him down by attacking the body

McGregor broke Chad Mendes down with strikes to the body - a weak point of Donald Cerrone's

Everyone who’s watched Donald ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone fight in the UFC over the last decade will probably know that his biggest weakness is body shots. ‘Cowboy’ has never been able to take them all that well, and it was by attacking the body that the likes of Jorge Masvidal, Anthony Pettis, and Rafael Dos Anjos were able to defeat him by TKO.

McGregor is admittedly not as well-known for his attacks to the body as Pettis, but he is very adept at landing stabbing front kicks to the body – as we saw in his win over Chad Mendes at UFC 189 in July 2015. And as a calculating fighter, it’s definitely likely that ‘The Notorious One’ knows all about Cerrone’s weakness to the body and will attack it viciously.

If the Irishman can use his kicks to break Cerrone’s body down, setting up a big shot to the head or a heavy flurry to finish him off, then he can definitely win this fight. And given McGregor surprisingly holds a reach advantage over ‘Cowboy’, then it’s definitely inside the realm of possibility that he can pull it off.

2. Cerrone’s chin may be cracked

After his KO loss to Justin Gaethje, is Cerrone's chin cracked?

It’s true that McGregor may well come into this fight with plenty of cage rust, as he hasn’t appeared inside the Octagon since his October 2018 loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov. But it’s also possible that the layoff has helped him, in a sense that he certainly hasn’t taken the amount of damage in his career that a more active fighter – like Cerrone – has done.

‘Cowboy’ has kept the most insane schedule of any UFC fighter in history, racking up a ridiculous 33 fights inside the promotion since joining it at the start of 2011. Throw in his 17 previous fights, and Cerrone has 50 overall, and due to the nature of his fighting style, he’s taken plenty of knocks along the way.

Worryingly for the Denver native, there’s plenty of evidence that fighters at the UFC level tend to become far less durable once they’ve spent a decade fighting the world’s best. Fighters like BJ Penn, Randy Couture, and Anderson Silva – all of whom were once known for their toughness – ended up becoming increasingly easy to knock out.

That could be the same for Cerrone – who has certainly looked more vulnerable in the last few years, and was most recently knocked out violently by Justin Gaethje. This could be a case of McGregor choosing to fight him at the perfect time – a trick perfected by the Irishman’s former boxing foe Floyd Mayweather – just as ‘Cowboy’ is reaching the end of his career at the top level.

3. ‘Cowboy’ doesn’t respond well in emotional situations

Cerrone struggled to control his emotions in his fight with Nate Diaz

Donald Cerrone often comes across like a stone-cold killer inside the Octagon, staring at his opponent with a steely gaze before destroying them once the fight begins. However, we’ve also seen him wilt at times in a surprising fashion – most notably when he’s been involved in a high-pressured, emotional situations.

When faced with the trash-talking Nate Diaz at UFC 141, for instance, Cerrone didn’t seem himself from the off, despite attempting to get into Diaz’s head by flipping him off as the fight began. And during the fight, he attempted to trade punches with the Stockton native – a sharper boxer – and found himself on the wrong end of a decision because of that.

Some fans have accused Cerrone of being a “choker” as he’s lost numerous big fights in his career, but I don’t think that’s the case – it may be more likely that he simply lets his emotions get the best of him in a high-pressured situation against an opponent that gets under his skin. And despite the fact that he hasn’t yet talked too much trash, if anyone knows how to get under an opponent’s skin, it’s Conor McGregor.

Cerrone has fought in numerous main events over the years and has even challenged for the UFC Lightweight title, but this will undoubtedly be the biggest fight he’s ever competed in, with the most eyeballs on him, too. For McGregor on the other hand, it’s just another fight.

Assuming ‘The Notorious One’ ramps up his trash talk in the next few weeks, it’s easy to see a situation in which he gets under Cerrone’s skin – causing ‘Cowboy’ to lose focus and become easy pickings for the Irishman.

4. Cerrone is a slow starter who doesn’t deal well with pressure-fighting

McGregor will look to replicate the gameplan of Darren Till, who corralled Cerrone before beating him

Another of Cerrone’s well-known weaknesses is his penchant for a slow start. Although it doesn’t always cost him fights – he came back against the likes of Melvin Guillard, Yancy Medeiros and Edson Barboza in impressive fashion, for instance – it often puts him in danger in the early going.

When Robbie Lawler fought ‘Cowboy’ in 2017, for instance, he swarmed him from the opening seconds of the fight, having him on the verge of a TKO at one point – and it was largely this assault that allowed Lawler to win the fight. Rafael Dos Anjos and Jorge Masvidal were also able to finish Cerrone in the early going.

Add in the fact that Cerrone also struggles to respond to an opponent willing to pressure him and walk him down – witness his 2017 loss to Darren Till, who corralled him against the fence before breaking him down with strikes – and it all adds up to a worrying conclusion for him against McGregor.

‘The Notorious One’ is a known quick starter, having numerous fast finishes to his name including his legendary 13-second knockout of Jose Aldo. He’s also highly adept at pressuring his foes, as we saw in his fight with Chad Mendes and in particular, his second fight with Nate Diaz. When he feels he has the upper hand, the Irishman simply doesn’t give his opponent any room to breathe.

If McGregor can force Cerrone onto his back foot early in this fight and force him backwards towards the fence, he becomes much less of a threat – and far more susceptible to the big punches of ‘The Notorious One’.