5 fighters who could end 2018 with a UFC title and 5 who won't

With 2017 now over and the first UFC show of 2018 in the books, it’s time to get the crystal ball out and try to look into the future and work out who might end the year with UFC gold – and who certainly won’t be holding a title when 2018 ends.

2017 saw a total of ten title changes in the UFC – counting interim title wins and Jon Jones’s now discredited victory over Daniel Cormier – and with a total of twelve UFC titles now up for grabs (not counting interim belts), 2018 could even see more.

Here, then, are five fighters who could end 2018 with a UFC title around their waist – and five fighters who most likely won’t.

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Could end 2018 with a title: Francis Ngannou

Francis Ngannou could claim the UFC Heavyweight title this weekend

Francis Ngannou has looked like a future UFC Heavyweight champion since his Octagon debut back in 2015. While he was taken down in that fight by Luis Henrique, it’s about the only time he’s looked vulnerable in his UFC career thus far.

Since then, he’s destroyed five different opponents – including legends Andrei Arlovski and Alistair Overeem – and will receive his title shot this weekend at UFC 220.

Can he beat champion Stipe Miocic? I think it’s almost a given. Miocic is a tremendous boxer but he doesn’t hit with nearly the same power as Ngannou, and I believe the Cameroonian fighter is the quicker man, too.

Miocic could attempt to fall back on his strong wrestling game, but we already saw Ngannou destroy a great wrestler in the form of Curtis Blaydes, and that was five fights ago.

If Ngannou does indeed dethrone Miocic, then I simply don’t see another Heavyweight having enough to bother him for some time – so he’ll be holding the title for a while, at least into 2019. He’s already beaten one top contender in Alistair Overeem and I highly doubt the likes of Fabricio Werdum or Mark Hunt would have much for him either.

Won’t end 2018 with a title: Georges St-Pierre

GSP is currently on the shelf with a serious health issue

Arguably the greatest fighter of all time, GSP claimed UFC gold in his second weight division this past November when he choked out Michael Bisping to win the Middleweight title. His reign was short-lived though as he swiftly vacated the belt citing some serious health issues linked to his move up in weight. When – or indeed, if – he’ll be back is anyone’s guess right now, as even his coaches have said they’re unsure.

Assuming he does return though, I highly doubt he’ll be winning another UFC title. Dana White and the rest of the UFC brass were already burned by his win of the 185lbs belt and subsequent relinquishing, and so it’s doubtful they’d simply hand him another title shot in a different weight class. Tyron Woodley currently holds the Welterweight title, and while GSP could go after him, I don’t think he will.

If St-Pierre indeed returns then I suspect he’ll have only one fight on his mind – a “money fight” with Conor McGregor. Whether the UFC would actually put that fight together, again, is a question mark, but it’d certainly be a huge drawing card. So the chances of GSP ending 2018 with hold around his waist seem slim.

Could end 2018 with a title: Alexander Gustafsson

Could Alexander Gustafsson end 2018 with the UFC Light-Heavyweight title?

With Jon Jones likely on the shelf for the foreseeable future following another PED scandal, Light-Heavyweight suddenly feels like a division in flux for the first time since Chuck Liddell was dethroned by Quinton Jackson back in 2007. The current champion, Daniel Cormier, is ageing and is coming off a loss to Jones, and the rest of the division – men like Glover Teixeira and Jimi Manuwa – are hardly in their prime. The exception to this rule seems to be Swedish star Alexander Gustafsson.

‘The Mauler’ has already seen two failed attempts at claiming UFC gold – he lost razor-close decisions to both Jones and Cormier – and after some injury issues plagued him in 2016 it felt like he could be slowing down. But he looked back to his best in his May win over Glover Teixeira and realistically, after the upcoming Cormier/Volkan Oezdemir title fight, he’s the only possible contender to fight for the belt.

Regardless of whether it’s Cormier or Oezdemir, I could see Gustafsson capturing the title in 2018. Oezdemir has shown thunderous punching power thus far but it isn’t like Gustafsson has a weak chin – he’s been knocked out once and that was led to by an accidental headbutt – and he already beat Cormier in the eyes of many. In my mind, the Light-Heavyweight title will finish 2018 in Sweden.

Won’t end 2018 with a title – Daniel Cormier

After his loss to Jon Jones, is Daniel Cormier's head really in the game?

Whether it’s at the hands of Volkan Oezdemir this weekend, or perhaps Alexander Gustafsson later in 2018, I simply can’t see Light-Heavyweight champion Daniel Cormier escaping 2018 with his title – or any other title – intact. It sounds crazy given the only fighter to ever have beaten Cormier is Jon Jones and he likely isn’t fighting any time soon due to his USADA suspension, but something tells me ‘DC’ is heading ever-closer to the end of his MMA career.

Firstly, whereas the first time he won the title, he did it by defeating Anthony Johnson following Jones’ stripping, this time he’s simply had the title handed back to him despite Jones TKOing him due to the champion’s drug test failure. While it’s probably nicer to know Jones had to cheat to beat him, the bottom line is that he still did it. And to have the title handed to him probably doesn’t mean as much as it did to win it the first time.

Basically, I wonder whether Cormier’s head can possibly still be in the game, and as he’s coming up to his 39th birthday, his physical prime is likely lost already. If he’s able to hold onto his title, it’ll be a miracle in my eyes, and despite him having no losses at Heavyweight, I can’t see him going after that belt if the monstrous Francis Ngannou is holding it. I see Cormier retiring to focus on his announcing duties after losing his title during 2018.

Could end 2018 with a title: Valentina Shevchenko

Valentina Shevchenko is dropping to 125lbs in search of a UFC title

Ukrainian kickboxer Valentina Shevchenko came within a hair’s breadth of capturing the Women’s Bantamweight title in 2017, as she lost in a tight split decision to champion Amanda Nunes in September. It was almost a miracle that she made it that far, as she’s been undersized for practically her whole career at 135lbs. 2018 though will see Shevchenko drop to a more natural weight class – 125lbs.

With the division being a newly-installed one, the likelihood is that a top ranked fighter from a higher weight class like Shevchenko will be instantly considered a title contender at Flyweight, and it isn’t long before she’s scheduled to make her debut there – she’s matched against Priscila Cachoeira at February’s Fight Night 125. Assuming no wild upset happens – and it isn’t likely given Shevchenko’s skills – she could well be in line for a title shot right away.

Why is this? It was clear that the UFC were grooming Paige VanZant for a title shot in the new division, but Paige has already lost to Jessica-Rose Clark in her debut at 125lbs. So she’s out of the picture for the time being, meaning Shevchenko is probably the next most recognisable fighter. I suspect she’ll beat Cachoeira, and then go on to win the title later in 2018 – and hold it for some time.

Won’t end 2018 with a title: Nicco Montano

Nicco Montano will find it difficult to hold onto her title in 2018

When the UFC announced that they were adding a Women’s Flyweight division in 2017 and would crown the first champion via a season of The Ultimate Fighter, doubts set in right away in terms of whether the best fighter in the division would actually win the title. That seems unfair, but realistically, the best fighter doesn’t always win TUF – it’s more about being able to mentally cope with a lot of weight cuts and various fights in a short period of time.

So when Nicco Montano – seeded as #14 at the beginning of the Ultimate Fighter tournament – won the inaugural title by beating Roxanne Modafferi – herself a late replacement – it always felt likely that her reign would be a short one. Montano’s first title defense has yet to be announced, but the likelihood is that it might come against Sijara Eubanks, her originally scheduled opponent in the TUF finals.

Montano could well get past Eubanks, who was herself only ranked #12 in the tournament, but can we really expect her to get past someone like Valentina Shevchenko? Or Jennifer Maia, who is currently ranked #1 in the world at 125lbs? I think it’s doubtful, and so there’s basically no way that Montano ends the year with the UFC title around her waist.

Could end 2018 with a title: Joanna Jedrzejczyk

Joanna Jedrzejczyk will look to reclaim her title in 2018

The biggest upset in the UFC in 2017 came in November, when Rose Namajunas knocked out Joanna Jedrzejczyk to win the Women’s Strawweight title – a title that Jedrzejczyk had held since March 2015, when she defeated Carla Esparza. Before the Namajunas fight, Joanna had looked like a dominant champion to compare with the likes of Georges St-Pierre, Anderson Silva and Demetrious Johnson.

She’d reeled off five successful title wins, and Namajunas should’ve been her sixth – that was until a huge left hook downed her halfway through the first round and was enough to end her two-and-a-half year reign. Since then she hasn’t fought, but the word going around right now – and the booking of a contender’s match between Tecia Torres and Jessica Andrade would seem to confirm it – is that a rematch is on the cards soon.

Despite Namajunas fighting the perfect fight against Jedrzejczyk, is there really any possibility that she’d go in as the favourite? Likely not. We’ve seen Rose lose twice before in the UFC, both to fighters that Jedrzejczyk shredded. To me this feels more like Matt Serra’s title win over GSP – one that was swiftly avenged. I see the same thing in the future for Jedrzejczyk, and I think she’ll reclaim her title in 2018.

Won’t end 2018 with a title: Rose Namajunas

Rose Namajunas seems too vulnerable to hold onto her title through 2018

So I kind of gave away this one with the last slide by stating that I expect Joanna Jedrzejczyk to take back her title if and when she rematches the current champion Rose Namajunas, but even if lightning can strike twice and ‘Thug Rose’ can defeat the Polish kickboxer for a second time, I’m not sure if I can see her holding the title as 2018 closes out.

Why? I know she defeated the best fighter the weight division has ever seen, but I’m still not sure that I buy her as the absolute best in the division. It was only in 2014 that Carla Esparza thoroughly dominated her on the ground before submitting her, and 2016 saw Karolina Kowalkiewicz outwork her in the clinch to win a decision. Her win over Tecia Torres in 2016 was also a questionable decision that could’ve gone either way.

Basically, despite an array of flashy finishing skills and a tremendous heart, I just feel that Rose is too vulnerable to hold onto her title past 2018, especially not when she might end up facing a dangerous contender like Torres, Jessica Andrade, or Claudia Gadelha. Even if the new champion doesn’t end up being Jedrzejczyk, I don’t see Namajunas with the title come the end of the year.

Could end 2018 with a title: Conor McGregor

Would the UFC really risk stripping Conor McGregor of his Lightweight title?

Right now the UFC future of Irish superstar Conor McGregor is massively in flux. This is largely because questions abound over whether the UFC can even pay him enough to bring him back – he reportedly made around $100m in his mega-fight against Floyd Mayweather – and whether he actually has any intention of defending the Lightweight title he took from Eddie Alvarez back in November 2016.

Current reports have the UFC looking to set up a title fight between Khabib Nurmagomedov and Tony Ferguson – the current Interim champion – with the winner potentially fighting McGregor in the fall. This plan supposedly involves the UFC stripping McGregor of his crown, but personally, I don’t see this happening for a pretty big reason.

The UFC’s “champions clause” means that any current champion is essentially locked down with the company for as long as they see fit. While McGregor holds a UFC title, basically he can’t walk away – or attempt to – to try to promote himself, something that is clearly in the Irishman’s mind.

I can see the UFC doing the Khabib/Ferguson fight for the interim belt while allowing McGregor to keep the real thing – bringing him back for a “money fight” at Madison Square Garden late in the year against Georges St-Pierre.

Won’t end 2018 with a title: Tony Ferguson

Tony Ferguson might find it hard going if he faces Khabib Nurmagomedov

So why can’t he end 2018 with a title intact? After all, he’s got incredible skills in all areas. The reason is simple – he’s likely to come up against Khabib Nurmagomedov. Current rumours have the fight scheduled for April’s UFC 223, and if that’s the case then El Cucuy may find himself derailed before he even has a chance to step into the cage with McGregor. Dagestani juggernaut Nurmagomedov is simply a horrible match for him.

Ferguson has been on a tremendous run since 2013, but his lone weakness has always appeared to be his takedown defence and a willingness to stay on the bottom and hunt for submissions. He almost lost to Lee this way and was almost defeated by Danny Castillo, too.

This must be music to Khabib’s ears – he’s the best wrestler and the best at top control and ground-and-pound in the division – and I just can’t see Ferguson keeping his title against ‘The Eagle’.