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We’re now just days away from the long-awaited Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Conor McGregor fight at UFC 229, and while everyone is making their own predictions as to what could happen – in that fight as well as in the other exciting fights on the card – perhaps the best thing about this show – and MMA in general – is that nobody has a clue what’s going to happen until it actually does.
That means that all kinds of surprises could happen on the show. We’ve already seen a few this year – who would ever have expected Henry Cejudo to dethrone Demetrious Johnson at UFC 227? Or for Brock Lesnar to crash the Octagon at UFC 226? Pretty much, nobody, that’s who.
Here then are 5 potential surprises we could see at UFC 226.
#1: The main event could end quickly
Due to the way that the UFC mythologizes its major stars in their pre-fight hype packages and countdown shows, it’s very easy for fans to fall into the trap of expecting a back-and-forth war for the ages in each and every big main event. But quite often that isn’t the case.
In the case of the upcoming Khabib/McGregor showdown, everyone seems to be expecting a great fight – the punching power, timing and movement of Conor against the takedowns, brute force and ground-and-pound of Nurmagomedov. So wouldn’t it be a surprise if we saw nothing of the sort?
Perhaps the most jaw-dropping possible result would be one like we saw at UFC 194. At that show, McGregor stepped into the Octagon as the challenger to UFC Featherweight champion Jose Aldo – a man who hadn’t tasted defeat in a decade. Everyone was expecting a war – and everyone was stunned when McGregor sparked Aldo out in one punch, ending the fight in just 13 seconds.
Could lightning strike twice on Saturday and see McGregor regain his title by leaving Nurmagomedov unconscious in seconds? Or – even more stunningly – could it be Khabib who manages an early finish, ala his knockout of Thiago Tavares?
If the fight does go quickly, it’ll be a major surprise – but it’ll be one that leaves the fans talking forever.
#2: It could be the end of the road for McGregor
Conor McGregor is coming into UFC 229 as an underdog for the first time in a while when it comes to his UFC career, but to most fans and analysts this does indeed look like his toughest ever challenge. Basically, he’s never fought a grappler the calibre of Nurmagomedov, and in the cold light of day, he only has one win – over Eddie Alvarez – at 155lbs.
So let’s say Conor does lose. Where would he go from there? Common sense would probably suggest he’d either attempt to drop back to 145lbs – a risk to be sure, but one that could pay off – or simply float around and fight “money fights” against foes like Nate Diaz, Georges St-Pierre or Anderson Silva.
One big surprise though would be if McGregor decides to hang up his gloves following the Nurmagomedov fight. Conor has recently signed a new six-fight deal with the UFC, but as we’ve seen previously with the Irishman, contracts don’t mean all that much – just look at how many times he’s renegotiated with the UFC as an example.
Everyone knows that McGregor loves money, and he’s always likely to make millions every time he steps into the cage – but he’s also a husband and a father and he has another child along the way. And he could certainly live comfortably with the money he’s made – and is about to make on Saturday – thus far.
So if he loses – or indeed, if he wins – would he really want to continue fighting, knowing that he’s already been to the top of the mountain? Perhaps not. But if he does decide to retire, it’d certainly be a major surprise – most of all to Dana White and the UFC’s powerbrokers who are banking on ‘The Notorious One’ to draw big money for them in the future.
#3: Pettis could upset the odds
The co-main event of UFC 229 sees a battle of former champions at 155lbs – Anthony Pettis, who held the title from 2013 to 2015 before losing to Rafael Dos Anjos faces off against former Interim champion Tony Ferguson, who was stripped of his title following a knee injury earlier this year.
Practically everyone seems to think this will be Ferguson’s fight to lose. After all, ‘El Cucuy’ is on a ten-fight win streak, has destroyed the likes of Dos Anjos, Kevin Lee, Edson Barboza and Josh Thomson, and looks like perhaps the most difficult challenge for either Nurmagomedov or McGregor.
On the flipside, Pettis hasn’t looked truly impressive since his 2014 win over Gilbert Melendez. That was followed by his losses to Dos Anjos, Eddie Alvarez and Edson Barboza, and while he’s picked up a couple of wins since, he’s only shown flashes of his former greatness.
But is it out of the realm of possibility that we see the return of the real ‘Showtime’ at UFC 229? Well, not completely. His July win over Michael Chiesa was probably his best performance since that Melendez fight – he looked more willing to push the pace and more confident in his offence – and he’s still only 31 – hardly an old man, even in MMA terms.
Add in the fact that Ferguson’s coming off an apparently serious knee injury, and the apparent curse on a potential Ferguson/Nurmagomedov fight, and you just never know. For the UFC brass – who have always adored Pettis – at least, a ‘Showtime’ win would be a welcome surprise.
#4: Lewis vs. Volkov could become a staring contest
One of the biggest fights on the undercard will see Derrick Lewis face Alexander Volkov in a highly anticipated Heavyweight clash. The winner could well see themselves in line for a title shot in 2019 – assuming that Brock Lesnar’s challenge comes in the early months of the new year – and with a massive 40 finishes between them, the fight sounds mightily exciting.
But one surprise that could come on Saturday could be in the form of a staring contest between the two big men. It seems highly unlikely – Volkov is a surprisingly aggressive fighter despite a reputation as somewhat of a counter-puncher, and Lewis has the potential to end the fight at any second – and a sloppy style that leaves him open to being finished, too.
But ‘The Black Beast’ put on an unexpected stinker in his last fight against Francis Ngannou – a fight that saw a total of 30 combined strikes landed – and while Volkov’s fights with Fabricio Werdum and Stefan Struve were great to watch, his fight with Timothy Johnson was plodding at best.
So could we be in for a disappointing staring contest at UFC 229? Hopefully not – nobody wants to see such a thing, especially after suffering through Ngannou/Lewis a few months ago – but it’s not out of the realm of possibility, especially with such high stakes for both men. Here’s hoping we don’t see this surprise on Saturday.
#5: The fighter everyone ends up talking about could be Dominick Reyes
Given the way the card has been built, you’d be forgiven for thinking that UFC 229 is a one-fight show with little substance behind the McGregor/Nurmagomedov main event. And while most fans are naturally watching for that fight, the show is actually a solid card overall with other intriguing fights on the undercard.
One of those fights is the main card battle between Light-Heavyweights Ovince St. Preux and Dominick Reyes. ‘OSP’ has been floating around the top of the 205lbs division for some time now – he unsuccessfully challenged Jon Jones for the UFC title in 2016 – and now he seems to have settled into a role as a uber-tough gatekeeper.
Reyes meanwhile is flying under the radar somewhat as he’s fought on cards that also went largely unnoticed by the casual fans. But he’s 3-0 in the Octagon and has delivered 3 devastating finishes – living up to his nickname.
And he appears to have everything it takes to succeed – he’s relatively young for a 205lber at 28; at 6’4” he’s got the perfect frame for the division, and he’s seemingly as skilled on the ground as he is on the feet.
Fighting on a Conor McGregor undercard then is the perfect opportunity for him to shoot to stardom. If he can beat OSP on Saturday in impressive fashion then he’d likely only be one or two fights away from a title shot – and so it’d be a nice surprise for him to be the name on everyone’s lips on Sunday morning.
