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Next weekend sees one of the biggest rematches in recent memory, as Alex Pereira makes the first defense of his UFC middleweight title against the man he took it from, former titleholder Israel Adesanya.
This rematch feels like a remarkably difficult one to call, but despite a number of variables, it feels like Alex Pereira should probably be favored to retain his crown.
Nothing is for certain, of course, and ‘Poatan’ could definitely come up short this time, but the Brazilian will come in with confidence, and rightly so.
Here are five reasons why Alex Pereira will defeat Israel Adesanya again at UFC 287.
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#5. Alex Pereira has had time to close the holes in his ground game
Prior to stopping him in the fifth round of their bout last November, Alex Pereira was quite clearly losing to Israel Adesanya on the scorecards. Part of the reason for this was the advantage that ‘The Last Stylebender’ appeared to have in the grappling department.
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The exchanges that the two men had inside the clinch and from close quarters were generally close to call, but in the third round, Adesanya was able to drag Pereira to the ground.
When the fight hit the mat, ‘Poatan’ looked like a fish out of water and found himself controlled by a fighter not exactly known for his jiu-jitsu skills.
The Brazilian made an error in going for a leglock, didn’t look capable of getting up from the bottom, and his neck looked open for a rear-naked choke at one point, although Adesanya did not go for it.
With the best part of six months to prepare for this rematch, though, the likelihood is that Pereira has been drilling defensive grappling non-stop with his coach Glover Teixeira. In fact, he’s already been awarded a brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu.
Sure, that probably wouldn’t help him against a world-class grappler like Rodolfo Vieira, for instance, but Adesanya is no grappler in his own right – he just happened to be better than Pereira on the mat.
‘The Last Stylebender’ might look for takedowns earlier in this rematch, but if he does, it’s likely that Pereira will be ready for them, giving him a slim advantage.
#4. Israel Adesanya’s chin may be questionable after his last fight with Alex Pereira
While there’s no exact science behind it, there’s definitely evidence in the world of MMA that suggests that once a fighter’s chin is badly cracked, it’s never quite the same again.
Anderson Silva, for instance, looked almost invulnerable to strikes until Chris Weidman knocked him out in 2013. From then onwards, he often suffered knockdowns in his fights, even against less powerful hitters like Michael Bisping.
With that considered, after suffering such a savage knockout at the hands of Alex Pereira in their last fight, there’s a very real chance that Israel Adesanya’s chin may now be vulnerable.
Prior to his clash with ‘Poatan’, the only fighter to really hurt him with strikes in the UFC was Kelvin Gastelum. Even then, Adesanya was only wobbled and was never really close to being finished.
Against Pereira, though, ‘The Last Stylebender’ suffered a horrendous beating in the fifth round. While he didn’t go completely down, he was definitely more than done once the ref stepped in.
Therefore, whether his chin can hold up to the kind of power that ‘Poatan’ packs a second time around is highly unlikely, meaning that it might take much less from the Brazilian to put him away this time.
#3. Alex Pereira might hold a psychological advantage over Israel Adesanya
Prior to their meeting at UFC 281 last year, all of the talk around the middleweight title bout between Alex Pereira and Israel Adesanya was the fact that ‘Poatan’ had beaten ‘The Last Stylebender’ twice in kickboxing.
UFC 281 was supposed to be Adesanya’s big shot at revenge. He had far more experience in MMA than the Brazilian, had never lost inside the octagon, and his fans seemed certain that he’d be able to find some success.
Early on, it did look like that would be the outcome. Adesanya appeared to be on his way to a decision win over ‘Poatan’, but as everyone knows, Pereira came back and stopped him in the fifth and final round.
After that finish, then, it must be in the back of Adesanya’s mind that he simply cannot beat ‘Poatan’ regardless of whether they’re competing in kickboxing or MMA.
Very few fighters are able to claim three wins over a top-level fighter like ‘The Last Stylebender’, and so to many observers, Pereira is kryptonite for him.
He might deny it in public, but deep down, at least a part of Adesanya must feel the same, and that could well give Pereira a huge psychological advantage coming into this rematch.
#2. Alex Pereira knows that he can knock Israel Adesanya out
Alex Pereira famously knocked Israel Adesanya out in the kickboxing ring back in 2017. Coming into their bout in the octagon last year at UFC 281, though, there were some questions over whether he could repeat the feat.
Sure, ‘Poatan’ had demonstrated scary striking power in his knockout wins over Andreas Michailidis and Sean Strickland in the octagon, but he’d also struggled to find his rhythm against Bruno Silva and ended up going the distance.
Given that Adesanya was never likely to present a static target for the Brazilian as Strickland had done, it was probably fair to suggest that ‘The Last Stylebender’ could avoid or at least survive Pereira’s power.
After UFC 281, though, there’s no question that not only can Pereira land his shots on Adesanya, but if he connects, he’s more than capable of knocking him out.
That knowledge is likely to be a huge boost for ‘Poatan’ coming into next weekend’s rematch. Not only will he be hopeful of taking Adesanya out again, he’ll also be safe in the knowledge that he only has to repeat what he did in November to win.
It’s a well-known fact in any sport that once a feat has been achieved, it becomes easier to achieve it again a second time around – and with that considered, it feels likely that Pereira will pull off another big knockout next weekend.
#1. Alex Pereira’s punching power is the ultimate equaliser
Perhaps the biggest issue for Israel Adesanya when it comes to his fight with Alex Pereira next weekend is that ‘Poatan’ carries perhaps more power in his punches than any other UFC fighter, pound-for-pound.
Essentially, if Pereira lands his vaunted left hook on an opponent cleanly, it’s likely that they’ll be knocked out instantly, as Sean Strickland was, or they won’t be able to recover, which is what happened to Adesanya last November.
Some heavy hitters, of course, tend to find their power waning as a fight goes on, but given that ‘Poatan’ finished Adesanya in the fifth round of a grueling fight, that clearly isn’t the case.
This seems likely to pose a massive issue for ‘The Last Stylebender’.
Essentially, Pereira can afford to make a handful of mistakes in this bout so long as he doesn’t leave himself open to being finished. He can even afford to give up a round or two if it comes to that.
Adesanya, on the other hand, cannot afford to make one single error, because if he does, the left hook is likely to land and put him to sleep again.
It’s very hard for any fighter – even a defensive wizard like Adesanya – to not absorb a single big shot across a five-round bout, and so it seems likely that at some point, Pereira will land his favoured blow.
If ‘Poatan’ can do that, then this fight will probably end in his favour.
