5 reasons why Alexander Volkanovski can beat Charles Oliveira

#4. Alexander Volkanovski's stand-up style matches well with Oliveira's

Styles make fights. It's a universal truth in combat sports. While it does not necessarily denote one fighter as better than the other, it does reveal that certain stylistic clashes can be predicted. Charles Oliveira is one of the fighters in the UFC who gets caught with strikes a lot. This is largely due to his relentless pressure and irresponsible defensive striking. The Brazilian stands tall but does not move his head off the center-line.

While he uses kicks and jabs as his primary distance management tool, he is also dangerous at shorter distances, often using his lead uppercut to punish foes for their level changes. However, as a tall fighter who fights from an upright stance, does not move his head and relies on both the jab and lead uppercut, he is especially vulnerable to a fighter like Alexander Volkanovski, who is a specialist at neutralizing taller, longer foes attempting to jab him from a distance.

He either counters them with a calf kick when they step forward to jab and expose their lead leg as they extend their stance, or he jabs with them, interrupting their jab with his own so that his foes do not build their jabs into combinations. However, the Australian also makes intelligent use of the overhand right, a strike that is well-suited for taller foes who fight from upright stances like Oliveira.

Taller fighters face difficulties when reading punches that start low and then go high before striking them from a downward arc as they are usually the ones punching downward. Not only does Alexander Volkanovski possess a sharp overhand right, he often loops it over his opponent's jab as a counter, further nullifying Oliveira's jab.

The Brazilian's other punch—the lead uppercut—brings him into range, nullifying his own reach advantage and exposing him to Alexander Volkanovski's thunderous left hook.

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#3. Alexander Volkanovski's submission defense

No one would mistake Charles Oliveira for anything less than one of the greatest offensive Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialists in MMA today. The unofficial lightweight champion is the all-time record holder for the most submission wins in UFC history. Curiously, Oliveira achieved this feat without possessing a strong takedown game. Instead, the Brazilian is an opportunistic grappler.

Against his most recent opponent Justin Gaethje, Oliveira got the fight to the ground through a knockdown. Against another foe, Dustin Poirier, he managed a slick back-take after backing the American up against the fence and mounting him for a standing rear-naked choke. While both victories were impressive, neither Poirier nor Gaethje possess commendable defensive grappling.

Justin Gaethje's Brazilian-jiu jitsu is virtually nonexistent, while Poirier—despite his black belt—has an instinct for exposing his back whenever he's near the fence.

Alexander Volkanovski, by contrast, does not commit the same mistakes. Furthermore, the Australian does not immediately panic and surrender with a tap. He maintains his composure and takes every necessary step to prevent a locked submission from advancing into a finish. This was most evident against Brian Ortega, from whom Volkanovski escaped three different submissions--a guillotine choke, a triangle choke and an anaconda choke.

'The Great' interrupted the flow of every submission by using one hand to push against Ortega's hips to disrupt his posture and free up space while using his alternate hand to push against Ortega's forearm until his foe exhausted his arms. His defensive grappling, mental composure, thick neck and all-around toughness render Alexander Volkanovski incredibly difficult to submit, with even a grappler as skillful as Ortega struggling to finish him with three different submissions.

Not only will Oliveira struggle to secure takedowns against 'The Great', but he will encounter a much stiffer challenge on the ground than he might expect, where blowing out his arms attempting chokes will not work in his favor given Volkanovski's cardio.