5 reasons why Aljamain Sterling can beat Petr Yan at UFC 273

This upcoming weekend sees UFC 273 take place and in the event’s co-headline bout, Aljamain Sterling and Petr Yan will finally rematch for the UFC bantamweight title. The clash comes a year after Yan lost his crown via disqualification.

The last time Aljamain Sterling fought Petr Yan, he was being dominated despite winning via disqualification, so can he turn things around this time?

It definitely won’t be easy for ‘Funk Master’, as Yan is an exceptional striker who looked tremendous in his most recent fight, a win over Cory Sandhagen. However, if Sterling can make the correct adjustments, then there’s no reason why he can’t pull off what would be a substantial upset to hold onto the title.

Here are five reasons why Sterling can defeat Petr Yan at UFC 273 to retain the UFC bantamweight title.

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#5. Aljamain Sterling will know what to expect from Petr Yan this time

Sterling will know what to expect from Petr Yan in their rematch

While there’s no disputing the idea that Aljamain Sterling was behind on the scorecards in his title fight with Petr Yan before winning by disqualification, that shouldn’t mean he comes into this rematch without confidence.

In fact, ‘Funk Master’ will have a slight advantage this time around in that he’ll know exactly what to expect from ‘No Mercy’ and can come up with a gameplan with his team accordingly.

Sure, the same can be said for Yan, but the Russian didn’t have to contend with Sterling’s ground game, which is his strongest aspect. In contrast, Sterling took the best shots that Yan had to offer last year and he was only stopped by a strike that was completely illegal.

Now that he knows exactly how Yan fights, ‘Funk Master’ will almost certainly be more prepared for what the Russian can bring and will probably be planning some way of implementing his ground game this time around.

So, if he can make the correct adjustments, this is not an impossible fight for Sterling by any means. In fact, there’s every chance that he can find a way to win.

#4. Aljamain Sterling wasn’t doing too badly in their first fight

Aljamain Sterling wasn't being completely dominated by Petr Yan in their first bout

Aljamain Sterling’s first fight with Petr Yan last March has largely become one of those fights that is very much falsely remembered in the eyes of the fans.

If you ask most UFC fans, they’d probably tell you that Yan was thoroughly dominating the fight before he was disqualified for hitting Sterling with an illegal knee. However, that wasn’t exactly the case.

Sure, Yan was ahead on the scorecards at the time of his disqualification, but the fight wasn’t a shutout by any means. In fact, many observers gave ‘Funk Master’ the second round of the bout and some even gave him the first despite a semi-knockdown from Yan largely undoing Sterling’s early work.

So while Sterling’s gameplan of using unpredictable movement to set up his wild kicks clearly wasn’t flawless – he never had Yan in trouble standing, nor was he able to secure a takedown – it definitely didn’t get him into the same kind of trouble that the likes of Jose Aldo and Urijah Faber had with ‘No Mercy’.

Therefore, it isn’t like Sterling will need to make massive adjustments if he wants to win this time around. If anything, he’ll probably just need to commit to his striking a little more, putting himself in slightly more danger in order to secure a takedown. If he can do that, then this is a winnable bout for sure.

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#3. We still don’t really know much about Petr Yan’s ground skills

Aljamain Sterling will be hopeful of dominating Petr Yan on the ground

Petr Yan has now been with the UFC since the summer of 2018. Over that time, ‘No Mercy’ has definitely established himself as a fighter to fear. He’s beaten the likes of John Dodson, Urijah Faber, Jose Aldo and Cory Sandhagen, and has four octagon stoppages to his name.

However, there is still one big question mark around ‘No Mercy’ and that question mark centres on his ground game. How good is the Russian on the mat? Simply put, we just don’t know.

Obviously, part of this has to do with his fantastic takedown defense. Yan has defended 89% of the takedowns thrown at him in the UFC and has usually been able to spring right back up to his feet when he has been grounded.

However, it’s arguable that against Aljamain Sterling, he’ll be facing the bantamweight division’s most dangerous grappler. ‘Funk Master’ is not only a great wrestler, but he’s also brilliant at controlling an opponent on the ground and is dangerous with submissions.

Cory Sandhagen, for instance, was thoroughly dummied by Sterling on the mat in their 2020 clash, succumbing to a rear-naked choke in the first round.

With that considered, while Sterling did struggle to get Yan down in their first fight, if he can adjust and ground him this time around, then it wouldn’t be a shock to see him dominate the Russian there, leading to a win, maybe by submission.

#2. Petr Yan may overlook Aljamain Sterling after their first fight

There's a chance Petr Yan may overlook Aljamain Sterling in their upcoming rematch

Petr Yan’s last appearance in the octagon saw him defeat Cory Sandhagen by unanimous decision in a wild striking affair, handing him the interim UFC bantamweight title in the process. Yan looked awesome in the bout and, in the eyes of many, should be able to breeze past Aljamain Sterling to claim back the undisputed title.

However, while ‘No Mercy’ has a right to be confident, could he find himself overlooking Sterling after their first fight went largely in his favor?

It’s definitely a possibility. After all, Yan certainly didn’t see the best of Sterling in their bout last March, as he was able to avoid the takedowns of ‘Funk Master’ and never had to fend him off on the ground.

The idea that Yan might come into his rematch with Sterling overconfident is a point clearly not lost on Sandhagen, who suffered a submission loss to the champion in 2020.

‘The Sandman’ recently stated that Yan would be “crazy” to overlook Sterling in their upcoming fight, labeling ‘Funk Master’ as a very dangerous grappler who simply can’t be counted out. He also pointed out that Sterling wasn’t doing as badly in their first fight as many people suggested.

Will Yan come in overconfident? It’s a point worth debating, as ‘No Mercy’ has never come across as cocky before and may well take ‘Funk Master’ very seriously. If he doesn’t, though, he could well find himself in serious trouble.

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#1. Aljamain Sterling has a serious point to prove

Aljamain Sterling has a major point to prove in his upcoming bout with Petr Yan

A big X-factor in the upcoming UFC bantamweight title bout between Aljamain Sterling and Petr Yan could be the fact that Sterling is likely to come into the fight with a major chip on his shoulder.

It’s arguable that no champion in UFC history has been written off quite so badly and so unfairly as Sterling, largely because he won his title in such controversial circumstances when Yan was disqualified in their first bout.

However, the people labeling Sterling a paper champion are sorely mistaken. ‘Funk Master’ is a truly great fighter with wins over the likes of Cory Sandhagen, Pedro Munhoz and Jimmie Rivera, and he’s an entirely credible titleholder.

If anything, everyone writing Sterling off in this rematch may well be a positive thing. ‘Funk Master’ will have a serious point to prove in this bout, just as he did when he produced his best UFC showing to date against Sandhagen in 2020.

The likelihood is that Sterling is training and preparing like never before for this bout. While even that might not be enough, there’s definitely a chance that all of the frustration and bitterness he’s felt since his title win allows him to fight like never before, leading him to a monumental victory.