5 reasons why Ciryl Gane will defeat Francis Ngannou at UFC 270

The headline bout of UFC 270 this weekend will see interim heavyweight champion Ciryl Gane attempt to become the undisputed titleholder. To do so, he'll have to get through reigning UFC heavyweight kingpin Francis Ngannou.

Gane is currently unbeaten in the UFC at 8-0, but can he really defeat the power-punching machine that is Francis Ngannou?

‘The Predator’ might be one of the scariest fighters in the history of MMA. However, the truth is that Gane has a better chance of dethroning him than practically anyone else on the planet right now.

With that considered, here are five reasons why 'Bon Gamin' will defeat Francis Ngannou at UFC 270.

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#5. Ciryl Gane isn’t afraid to make a fight dull in order to win

'Bon Gamin' is willing to make a fight less than exciting if it means he wins

Ciryl Gane might be one of the most intimidating fighters operating in the UFC right now. However, unlike Francis Ngannou, ‘Bon Gamin’ isn’t just a blunt instrument of destruction when he steps into the octagon.

The French native has delivered some thunderous knockouts during his UFC career, including his most recent one over Derrick Lewis and his brutal elbow finish of Junior dos Santos. There can be no doubt that he hits extremely hard.

However, Gane is more than just a power puncher. While UFC president Dana White might not like it, he isn’t afraid to make a fight into a dull one if that kind of gameplan will lead him to a victory.

Gane picked up three victories in 2021, all of them in the headline bout of a major UFC show. However, while everyone was blown away by his slaughter of Lewis, his wins over Alexander Volkov and Jairzinho Rozenstruik saw him choose to pick his opponents off rather than engage in brawls.

Sure, those fights would’ve been infinitely more entertaining had Gane simply chosen to swing against his opponents, but that isn’t his style.

Therefore, if ‘Bon Gamin’ thinks that playing it safe will get him past Ngannou, he’ll be willing to do that – and it’s that kind of attitude that may give him the edge.

#4. Francis Ngannou may be distracted by the issues around his UFC contract

Will Francis Ngannou's contract issues with the UFC prove to be a distraction leading into UFC 270?

Another factor that might give Ciryl Gane the edge is the multitude of narratives surrounding Francis Ngannou heading into Saturday's fight.

Given that he’s knocked out a total of nine different opponents inside the octagon, it’s easy to understand why Francis Ngannou is probably the most feared man in the UFC right now. However, quite whether ‘The Predator’ is as focused as he needs to be in order to take out Ciryl Gane, perhaps his most dangerous opponent yet, is up for debate.

Ever since defeating Stipe Miocic last March to win the UFC heavyweight title, Ngannou has essentially been at loggerheads with the promotion over a number of different issues.

Not only has he suggested that he wants to be paid far more handsomely than his current contract requires, but he’s also spoken out against the UFC’s business practices in general. He's also been talking of a fight with boxing heavyweight kingpin Tyson Fury and wants a clause put into any future contract to allow him to step into that sport.

Such talk has not affected other fighters in the past, with the likes of Conor McGregor and Jon Jones able to deliver the goods in the octagon despite having issues with the UFC. However, it’s also worth looking back at Ngannou’s history.

The last time the Cameroonian was reportedly distracted on this level was in 2018. It was that year that saw him suffer back-to-back losses to Miocic and Derrick Lewis. So while ‘The Predator’ may always carry his brutal punching power, whether he’s focused enough to land a haymaker on Gane is another thing entirely.

If Ngannou is indeed distracted, it may provide ‘Bon Gamin’ with the opening he needs to find a path to victory in this fight.

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#3. Ciryl Gane has more experience in a longer fight than Francis Ngannou

Ciryl Gane has plenty of experience in longer, five-round fights that have gone the distance

It’s probably fair to argue that in terms of UFC experience, Francis Ngannou is ahead of Ciryl Gane. After all, ‘The Predator’ debuted in the octagon in 2015, four years before the Frenchman, and has had 13 fights in the octagon compared to Gane’s seven.

However, despite the fact he’s defeated legends like Cain Velasquez and Alistair Overeem in his time, the one area that Ngannou is lacking experience in is longer fights. Due largely to his brutal punching power, ‘The Predator’ has left the first round on just five occasions during his tenure with the UFC and he’s only gone the distance twice.

When you consider that those two longer fights were the two fights that he lost, the question of whether Ngannou’s style can work down the stretch becomes even larger.

Ciryl Gane, on the other hand, has proven on multiple occasions that he’s capable of going deep into fights. Not only has he won two five-round decisions handily during his UFC career, but he’s also only stopped one opponent in the first round.

Sure, his detractors would point to the fact that he perhaps doesn’t have the same thunderous power as Ngannou, but the truth is that there are fewer questions around Gane in a long fight than there are for ‘The Predator’.

Therefore, if this fight ends up heading into the later rounds, then ‘Bon Gamin’ must surely be favored.

#2. Ciryl Gane may have a superior ground game to Francis Ngannou

Ciryl Gane has shown an impressive ground game at points during his UFC career

A superior ground game may also benefit Ciryl Gane on January 22.

While everyone knows that Francis Ngannou probably carries more power in his fists than any other fighter in the history of the UFC, a big question mark continues to hang over how good his ground game is.

When he fought Stipe Miocic for the first time in 2018, the answer to that question appeared to be that, on the ground, ‘The Predator’ was a fish out of water. He had nothing for Miocic when he was put on the mat and his failure to stop the champion’s takedowns led him directly to defeat.

Based on his rematch with Miocic last March, Ngannou does appear to have closed some of the holes in his takedown defense. He was able to stuff more than one attempt successfully before he stopped the champion in the second round. However, that was one fight and so quite whether Ngannou’s ground game has genuinely improved if he were to be put on his back is up in the air.

Ciryl Gane is definitely not the same caliber of wrestler as Miocic. However, we have seen evidence that his ground game in terms of his submission skill is surprisingly excellent.

His UFC debut saw him submit Raphael Pessoa with an arm triangle choke, while his second bout inside the octagon saw him tap Don’Tale Mayes with a heel hook, hardly the most common submission to be utilized by a heavyweight.

Could Gane therefore tap out Ngannou if he were to take him down? It’s a difficult question to ask, but it’s safe to say that based on what we’ve seen from the two of them, ‘Bon Gamin’ is the more proven ground fighter, giving him an advantage should the fight hit the deck.

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#1. Ciryl Gane appears to be the more technical fighter

Ciryl Gane might be the best technical striker that Francis Ngannou has faced in the octagon

While Francis Ngannou hits harder than any fighter in UFC history and has knocked out some true greats in his time there, there’s definitely an argument to suggest that technically speaking, ‘The Predator’ is not a great striker.

Sure, nobody can withstand taking a clean hit from him, but for the most part, the native of Cameroon throws wild haymakers that don’t often come from the best angles. He also swings widely, holds his chin high in the air and rarely sets up his bigger shots with strikes such as jabs.

Ciryl Gane, on the other hand, is clearly a very educated striker. Prior to fighting in the UFC, he competed as a professional Muay Thai kickboxer, putting together an unbeaten record of 13-0 in the ring.

This experience is clear from his performances in the octagon, as he’s picked apart excellent strikers such as Junior dos Santos, Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Alexander Volkov. Sure, he doesn’t possess Ngannou’s power, but he works from behind a stiff jab, has excellent head movement, footwork and angles, and is patient, too.

In addition, it’s arguable that the Frenchman will be the best striker Ngannou has ever fought in the octagon. Sure, Alistair Overeem was more decorated, but he was also past his best and has always had a questionable chin.

Therefore, if this fight ends up taking place on the feet as everyone expects it will, while Gane will undoubtedly have to avoid taking a big shot from Ngannou, there’s every chance that he could pick ‘The Predator’ apart using his superior technique – leading him to victory.