5 reasons why Cody Garbrandt's move to 125lbs at UFC 269 may be a mistake

One fascinating matchup at UFC 269 sees former UFC bantamweight champion Cody Garbrandt move to the flyweight division to take on Kai Kara-France, but is this move a good one for ‘No Love’?

Right now it seems debatable. Cody Garbrandt has fallen on hard times of sorts at 135lbs, but whether his move to 125lbs can really re-energise his UFC career is another thing entirely.

With that considered, here are five reasons why Cody Garbrandt’s move to 125lbs could be a mistake.

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#5. Cody Garbrandt wasn’t a small 135lber, so the strain of moving to 125lbs may be a problem

Cody Garbrandt was not exactly a chubby 135lber - so how can he lose more weight to make 125lbs?

On the face of it, losing 10lbs doesn’t seem like a massive deal, particularly not for a professional fighter with the UFC. In the case of Cody Garbrandt, however, moving from 135lbs to 125lbs may not be as simple as it sounds.

Firstly, it isn’t like Cody Garbrandt was carrying excess body fat at 135lbs. If anything, ‘No Love’ was always one of the bantamweight division’s leaner fighters. While we don’t know for sure, it’s likely that he was cutting from upwards of 150lbs to make the division’s 135lbs weight limit.

Secondly, moving to 125lbs has proven to be a tricky task for plenty of other 135lbers in the UFC before, probably because it’s such a low weight that it’s harder to reach than, say, a 185lber moving to 170lbs.

Cody Garbrandt’s bitter rival T.J. Dillashaw, for instance, struggled greatly to make 125lbs in January 2019 and even resorted to using banned substances to help him hit the mark.

Some photos have already been released of ‘No Love’ on his journey to 125lbs. While they suggest he’s probably going to hit the weight, they also appear more than a little concerning, with the former bantamweight champ looking basically skeletal.

If you consider that there are still four days to go before UFC 269, who knows how Cody Garbrandt will look when he hits the scale? Essentially, the strain of such a weight cut may well cause him more problems than it’s worth.

#4. Moving to 125lbs won’t fix Cody Garbrandt’s chin – it may make it worse

Cody Garbrandt's chin was arguably questionable at 135lbs

Another issue with the move could be the vulnerability of Cody Garbrandt's chin.

It’s a well-established idea within the UFC that fighters who embark on massive weight cuts to make a certain mark tend to have problems with their chin thereafter.

The science behind this idea suggests that a hefty weight cut can reduce the amount of fluid around the brain, making the fighter more susceptible to a knockout. We’ve seen the likes of James Vick and T.J. Dillashaw seemingly struggle in the octagon for this reason in the past.

That’s why Cody Garbrandt’s upcoming move to 125lbs is so worrying. Essentially, while he’s a genuinely excellent fighter, few fans would attempt to claim that ‘No Love’ has an iron chin.

During his career with the UFC, which dates back to early 2015, we’ve seen Cody Garbrandt knocked out on three occasions.

While there’s no shame in losing to Pedro Munhoz and T.J. Dillashaw via KO, it’s definitely arguable that Garbrandt was winning at least two of those three bouts before his chin betrayed him.

Adding in a large weight cut, then, may well make Garbrandt’s already questionable durability even worse.

Sure, you could argue that the UFC’s flyweight division doesn’t have as many concussive hitters as the bantamweight class, but there are plenty of 125lbers who are more than capable of knocking their foes out. Can Kai Kara-France knock Cody Garbrandt out this weekend? It’s debatable, as the New Zealand native has struggled to live up to his 'Don't Blink' moniker in the UFC.

If he can’t, though, someone like Deiveson Figueiredo or Alexandre Pantoja would certainly be capable of doing so, particularly if ‘No Love’ has a compromised jaw due to his weight cut.

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#3. The UFC flyweight division isn’t lacking in dangerous fighters

The UFC fltyweight division is full of dangerous fighters like Brandon Moreno and Deiveson Figueiredo

In a way, it does make sense for Cody Garbrandt to drop to 125lbs. ‘No Love’ was still rated as one of the best 135lbers in the world prior to his move, but his losses to T.J. Dillashaw, Pedro Munhoz and Rob Font had largely moved him out of title contention.

The UFC flyweight division, meanwhile, is less star-studded than the bantamweight class. So with one or two wins, ‘No Love’ could easily find himself in line for a shot at the title.

However, to suggest that there are fewer dangerous fighters at 125lbs would be an error. The division’s top two, champion Brandon Moreno and top contender Deiveson Figueiredo, are both remarkably dangerous in all areas.

The likes of Askar Askarov, Alexandre Pantoja and Alex Perez all have finishing skills in all areas, while up-and-comers such as Tagir Ulanbekov and David Dvorak are also highly dangerous too.

Kai Kara-France, who will welcome Garbrandt to the division this weekend, is a highly dangerous fighter in his own right, with a total of five UFC victories to his name. He might not be physically imposing, but he can definitely fight.

Essentially, then, if Cody Garbrandt thinks he can drop to 125lbs and walk all over the UFC’s best flyweights, he may well be mistaken. If anything, he might find the going there just as tricky as he did at 135lbs.

#2. Cody Garbrandt’s speed may be nullified at 125lbs

Cody Garbrandt's speed was a huge advantage for him at 135lbs

While Cody Garbrandt gained popularity and success at 135lbs due to his boxing skills and knockout power, the truth is that a lot of that was made possible by his speed.

‘No Love’ usually enjoyed a major speed advantage over his opponents in the bantamweight division. He was able to dodge and outstrike arguably the trickiest kickboxer in bantamweight history, Dominick Cruz, in their title bout and most recently, used that speed to knock out Raphael Assuncao in brutal fashion.

In fact, his only losses came at the hands of a fighter with an extreme reach advantage (Rob Font) and in fights that saw Garbrandt too willing to embrace a wild brawl. Nobody at 135lbs was able to really beat ‘No Love’ for speed.

At 125lbs, though, that advantage is likely to be nullified. The UFC’s bantamweights might seem quick, but their flyweight equivalents are far quicker, with fans and observers often stunned by the speed at which these smaller fighters can operate at.

Some of the UFC’s bantamweights, Assuncao amongst them, could be considered plodding, but the same cannot be said for any of the 125lbers.

So if Cody Garbrandt is used to having a speed advantage, he may well be in for a rude awakening at 125lbs. In fact, this could prove to be a factor this weekend, as Kai Kara-France is an extremely fast fighter in his own right.

Overall, his move to 125lbs may well cost ‘No Love’ one of the biggest advantages he usually enjoys over his opponents.

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#1. Cody Garbrandt’s problems at 135lbs were not caused by his size

Cody Garbrandt's issues at 135lbs came from his penchant for brawling, not because he was undersized

Sometimes, it makes sense for a fighter to move down in weight, particularly if their problems in the heavier class are being caused by a lack of size and power.

Demetrious Johnson, for instance, was a fantastic fighter at 135lbs. However, ‘Mighty Mouse’ hit a brick wall against Dominick Cruz in his UFC bantamweight title challenge and found himself largely ragdolled by ‘The Dominator’.

Therefore, it made perfect sense for him to move to 125lbs, where he would no longer be outsized and overpowered by larger foes.

Cody Garbrandt, on the other hand, has never been physically dominated at 135lbs during his UFC career. Sure, he was outstruck by the lanky reach of Rob Font, but few other bantamweights possess such length as the Boston native.

Outside of that, though, none of Garbrandt’s problems were caused by his size. Instead, they came from his tendency to lose his cool in the octagon and engage in a wild brawl, exposing his questionable chin in the process.

Will his move to 125lbs get rid of that issue? The honest truth is no. Sure, he might hope to be the larger, more powerful fighter at flyweight, but then that was the case for him a lot of the time at 135lbs.

Overall, this move seems like a snap decision that might make sense on the surface, but it won’t solve Cody Garbrandt’s overall issues and may well provide him with more in the long run.