#2. Jon Jones may be too rusty to beat Francis Ngannou
While Jon Jones is still only 34, he has been fighting in the UFC for well over a decade, dating back to the summer of 2008. While he’s clearly one of the promotion’s all-time greats, is it fair to wonder if he’s past his prime now?
It’s definitely an interesting question. Technically speaking, he ought to be at his athletic peak right now. However, the last few times we saw him in the octagon, he certainly didn’t look at his best.
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The best version of ‘Bones’ probably would’ve destroyed opponents like Anthony Smith, Thiago Santos and Dominick Reyes. However, in 2019 and 2020, Jones only just edged past all three men, needing a split decision to beat Santos, in particular.
More importantly, since his win over Reyes in February 2020, Jones has not set foot into the octagon for another fight. He has clearly been training during the two years since then. However, as his hiatus is self-imposed rather than injury-related, there’s definitely a chance he could return with some ring rust.
If that’s the case, Francis Ngannou – who has beaten three opponents in the period Jones has been away from the octagon – is not the kind of fighter the latter would want to return to action against.
‘The Predator’ is simply too sharp, quick and brutal for someone with ring rust to handle, even for a fighter as skilled as Jones. If the UFC were to make this fight as Jones’ big comeback, the latter would be favored to lose.
#1. Francis Ngannou hits too hard for Jon Jones to handle
It sounds crazy, but for the most part, despite fighting in the UFC for over a decade and entering the octagon on 22 occasions, Jon Jones’ chin remains surprisingly untested.
Sure, he has been hit hard at times, and in that sense, it might be fair to suggest that he has an excellent level of durability. The likes of Daniel Cormier, Alexander Gustafsson and Dominick Reyes have all shown knockout power and all hit ‘Bones’, but he was comfortably able to recover.
However, it’s also fair to say that he has never been hit by a fighter with the brute power of Francis Ngannou. Essentially, nobody in UFC history hits quite as hard as ‘The Predator’.
The Cameroon native has knocked out basically every opponent he has ever faced. His finishes of Stipe Miocic, Alistair Overeem and Jairzinho Rozenstruik count amongst the most terrifying in UFC history. All three men looked like they’d literally been knocked dead by Ngannou’s punches.
An educated guess would suggest that even if a fighter had a renowned iron chin, they wouldn’t be able to survive a clean shot from Ngannou.
So how would a career 205 lber like Jones handle one of Ngannou’s hardest shots? The likely answer is not very well. Sure, ‘The Predator’ would have to land that clean shot, but over five rounds, it’s likely he’d catch Jones at least once.
As we’ve seen on so many occasions before, for a puncher as powerful as Francis Ngannou, one shot is usually all it takes to win.