After his big win over Dustin Poirier this past weekend at UFC 269, the big question for UFC lightweight champion Charles Oliveira is all about who is next for him.
UFC President Dana White has already suggested that Justin Gaethje is probably next in line to fight Charles Oliveira for the UFC lightweight title – but should Islam Makhachev get the shot instead?
Makhachev is set to fight Beneil Dariush in late February. However, should he win, the UFC could easily put him against Charles Oliveira in the summer – giving ‘Do Bronx’ some much-needed time off.
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So with this considered, here are five reasons why Islam Makhachev would make a more intriguing challenger for Charles Oliveira than Justin Gaethje.
#5. We’ve already seen Charles Oliveira deal with heavy hitters
In the UFC, the old adage is that styles make fights. If that’s the case, then we honestly don’t need to see Charles Oliveira fight Justin Gaethje all that badly right now. That’s because ‘Do Bronx’ has recently fought two opponents who are very stylistically similar to Gaethje in Michael Chandler and Dustin Poirier.
There are subtle stylistic differences between the three. Chandler has more of a wrestling threat than Poirier and Gaethje. ‘The Diamond’ is more of a pressure-boxer than the leg kicking, haymaker-throwing machine that is ‘The Highlight’, but strictly speaking, all three men are primarily strikers.
While a heavy striker was once seen as Charles Oliveira’s kryptonite, the same can’t be said at this point. ‘Do Bronx’ was hurt by both men, but in the end, he dealt with Chandler and Poirier in devastating fashion, finishing both men violently.
Essentially, it’d be much fresher and much more intriguing to see Oliveira put up against an opponent who could provide a different threat entirely – an opponent like grappling whiz Islam Makhachev.
Does this seem a little unfair to Gaethje? Perhaps, but at the end of the day, the UFC is about making the most entertaining fights. Right now, Oliveira vs. Makhachev sounds fresher than Oliveira vs. Gaethje does.
#4. Islam Makhachev vs. Charles Oliveira could be the best grappling match in UFC history
A fight between Charles Oliveira and Islam Makhachev would be a grappling dream match. While the UFC has traditionally come under criticism for its supposed focus on striking over and above grappling, the truth is that Dana White and company are quite happy for grapplers to thrive as long as they’re entertaining to watch.
Sure, a lay-and-pray wrestler is probably going to draw the ire of someone like White, but aggressive grapplers like Charles Oliveira and Islam Makhachev – who look to punish their opponents before submitting them – are a different thing entirely.
With both men being masters of submission – holding a combined record of 20 tapout wins in the octagon – there’s a possibility that if the UFC were to match Charles Oliveira and Makhachev together, a classic could ensue.
So could Makhachev’s takedowns, wrestling skill and top control nullify the dangerous Brazilian jiu-jitsu skills of ‘Do Bronx’? Or would Charles Oliveira be able to put Makhachev into a position that he’s never been in before in the UFC – and capitalize with another submission?
It’d be honestly tricky to say which way this fight might go, but due to the grappling skills of both, it’d be a far more fascinating fight than Charles Oliveira vs. Justin Gaethje would be right now.
#3. Justin Gaethje has already had his chance at the top of the lightweight division
Justin Gaethje would probably claim that he’s done enough to earn a shot at UFC lightweight champion Charles Oliveira. In many respects, he wouldn’t be wrong.
‘The Highlight’ has suffered just one loss in the octagon since 2018 – his defeat at the hands of Khabib Nurmagomedov in October 2020. He has also defeated the likes of Donald Cerrone, Tony Ferguson and Michael Chandler.
However, given that he’s been headlining UFC shows since his octagon debut in 2017, is there an argument that Gaethje already had his chance at the top of the division?
The truth is that there is. While Gaethje has picked up those aforementioned big wins, in addition to his loss to Nurmagomedov, he’s also been defeated by both Dustin Poirier and Eddie Alvarez, losing both fights by KO.
Given that he only lost his most recent title fight last October – and has only fought once since – can the UFC really justify handing him another shot right away?
Realistically, the UFC could justify giving anyone a title shot – even if they allowed Conor McGregor to leapfrog both Gaethje and Islam Makhachev – but the truth is that we’ve already seen Gaethje in enough big fights at this stage.
Therefore, as he’s never fought for the title before, Makhachev would be a much more intriguing title challenger right now.
#2. Islam Makhachev’s win streak is more impressive than Justin Gaethje’s
While both men are threats to Charles Oliveira, it’s fair to suggest that Justin Gaethje has defeated bigger-name fighters than Islam Makhachev has at this point in both men’s UFC careers.
‘The Highlight’ holds wins over Donald Cerrone, Tony Ferguson, Edson Barboza and Michael Chandler. All four of those fighters have been regular headliners for the UFC, with Ferguson standing as a former interim lightweight champion.
In comparison, Makhachev’s biggest wins are probably Dan Hooker and Thiago Moises – two highly ranked fighters, but also less established names than Gaethje’s victims.
However, if you judge by their actual win streaks, then it’s easy to see that Makhachev is probably more deserving of a shot at Charles Oliveira.
The last time the Dagestani tasted defeat in the octagon was way back in October 2015 when he was stopped by Adriano Martins in his lone career loss.
Since then, Makhachev has reeled off a total of nine wins in a row in the octagon, somehow looking more impressive with each win despite stepping up in competition incrementally. That streak puts him behind only Charles Oliveira himself in the division right now.
In contrast, Gaethje has lost three bouts inside the octagon, and has only picked up one win – his epic victory over Chandler – since his most recent loss.
However good that win over Chandler was, is it fair to have a fighter on a one-fight winning run ahead of someone who has nine wins in a row? Probably not.
#1. A fight between Charles Oliveira and Islam Makhachev might be the bigger fight right now
On the surface of it, there’s probably an argument that Justin Gaethje is a bigger star for the UFC than Islam Makhachev.
‘The Highlight’ has been a headliner ever since he moved to the UFC in 2017. He’s main evented a total of seven events during his tenure with the promotion, including two major pay-per-views in the form of UFC 249 and UFC 254.
However, it’s probably safe to say that on both pay-per-views – no offense intended – Gaethje was the “b-side” of the headline bout against two bigger stars in Tony Ferguson and Khabib Nurmagomedov.
Essentially, while Gaethje is a known name, he isn’t a genuine superstar or major drawing card at this point.
Makhachev is not a superstar either, but he does have one major thing going for him and that’s his connection with his friend and training partner, Khabib.
The biggest possible fight for the UFC to make at lightweight right now would be between Khabib and Charles Oliveira – but obviously, due to ‘The Eagle’ retiring in 2020, that isn’t possible.
However, a proxy war of sorts between Charles Oliveira and Makhachev could easily be sold as the next best thing. With Khabib in Makhachev’s corner, it could become almost as big a fight as the real deal would be.
Add in the outside chance of Khabib being willing to return for a fight with Charles Oliveira if he were to beat Makhachev – it’s a classic story, after all – and it’s probably safe to say that the UFC could make more money overall by booking ‘Do Bronx’ against the Dagestani than Gaethje.