5 reasons why Islam Makhachev will destroy the winner of Charles Oliveira vs. Justin Gaethje

This past weekend saw UFC lightweight prospect Islam Makhachev pick up his tenth win in a row by defeating Bobby Green by TKO in the first round.

Islam Makhachev’s latest win should put him in line for a shot at the UFC lightweight title at some point in later 2022. However, can he defeat the winner of Charles Oliveira vs. Justin Gaethje?

The answer is almost certainly yes. The Dagestani is the hottest fighter in the lightweight division since his teammate and mentor Khabib Nurmagomedov, and it seems only a matter of time before he claims the gold.

Here are five reasons why Makhachev could destroy either Charles Oliveira or Justin Gaethje.

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#5. Islam Makhachev is the most dominant wrestler in the lightweight division

Makhachev's wrestling game looks almost unstoppable at times

Despite all of the evolution that has occurred in the world of MMA over the past three decades, it’s now pretty clear that the style that allows fighters to be most dominant is wrestling.

A fighter with a high-level wrestling game can essentially choose where a fight takes place. In that sense, it’s hardly surprising that the UFC’s most dominant fighters – names like Georges St-Pierre, Kamaru Usman, and Khabib Nurmagomedov – all had phenomenal wrestling skills.

Right now, there is no more dominant wrestler in the UFC’s lightweight division – if not the entire promotion – than Islam Makhachev.

The stats speak for themselves. Makhachev not only averages 3.41 takedowns per fight, but he also hits his takedowns at an accuracy of 65%. For comparison’s sake, Khabib’s takedown accuracy was 48%.

When you add in the fact that Makhachev has only ever been taken down twice during his UFC career, it’s plain to see that he’s a very special wrestler. Makhachev is capable of landing takedowns from the outside and from the clinch.

That wrestling game gives him a major advantage over Charles Oliveira and Justin Gaethje, as he’s likely to be able to dictate the nature of the fight. Any fighter able to choose his own battleground is always likely to win.

#4. Islam Makhachev has only ever lost due to an error on his part

An avoidable error led to Islam Makhachev's loss to Adriano Martins

Unlike his teammate and mentor Khabib Nurmagomedov, Islam Makhachev does have a loss to his name in the UFC. That loss came back in 2015 via knockout at the hands of Adriano Martins.

Given that Martins washed out of the UFC in 2017 and was never known for his striking, should we suspect that Makhachev’s Achilles' heel is his striking and durability?

In all honesty, no. It’d be easy to suggest that without seeing the fight, but anyone who does remember it – or who has checked it out since – should be aware that Makhachev was essentially the architect of his downfall.

He waded in, throwing strikes wildly and showing zero respect for Martins’ striking. The Dagestani ended up being caught with a clean haymaker. Essentially, it was a silly error, but as any MMA fan knows, any fighter can be knocked out with the right shot at any time.

Since then, Makhachev has not taken similar risks, and it’s clear that his striking skills have improved dramatically. This has led him to a 10-fight win streak.

Therefore, can we take anything from this single loss when it comes to a potential fight between Makhachev and either Charles Oliveira or Justin Gaethje? The answer is absolutely a no. Unlike the recent losses suffered by those two fighters, Makhachev’s loss to Martins is irrelevant.

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#3. Islam Makhachev has the grappling chops to deal with Charles Oliveira on the ground

Could Islam Makhachev thrive in a grappling-based fight with Charles Oliveira?

Given that Charles Oliveira holds the UFC’s record for the most submission wins in the promotion’s history with a total of 15, it’s hardly a stretch to label 'Do Bronx' the most dangerous grappler on the planet right now.

Great grapplers such as Kevin Lee, Jim Miller, and Hatsu Hioki have fallen to the slick submission skills of ‘Do Bronx’ – so if he’s holding the title when Islam Makhachev claims his inevitable title shot, does the Dagestani have the grappling chops to deal with him?

Based on what we’ve seen thus far into his octagon career, Makhachev would definitely appear to be more than capable of surviving on the mat with the Brazilian.

Firstly, given Makhachev’s wrestling skill, it’s unlikely that Oliveira would be able to take him down. Instead, any takedowns are likely to be landed by the Dagestani.

While ‘Do Bronx’ is excellent off his back, it’s much harder for any jiu-jitsu artist to catch a submission from the guard. This means it’d be tricky for him to snare Makhachev from that position – particularly if the Dagestani was landing punches on him.

Secondly, Makhachev is an excellent submission artist in his own right, with 10 of his 22 career wins coming via tapout. The Russian has used a variety of submissions such as arm-triangle chokes, kimuras, and rear-naked chokes.

Oliveira is not immune to submissions in his own right. He’s had to tap out three times in the UFC, most recently against Ricardo Lamas in 2016. This could mean that Makhachev traps the Brazilian in a submission of his own.

#2. We already saw Islam Makhachev’s style defeat Justin Gaethje

Could Islam Makhachev deal with Justin Gaethje in the same way that Khabib Nurmagomedov did?

Of the two, it’s arguable that Justin Gaethje's style would provide Islam Makhachev with a trickier test than Charles Oliveira's. So does that mean Makhachev would be in trouble against ‘The Highlight’?

Gaethje is a massively dangerous fighter, of that, there can be no doubt. He’s got excellent takedown defense. 'The Highlight' hits with arguably more power than any other fighter in the lightweight division, he has ridiculous durability, and he’s now more patient than ever when it comes to setting up his strikes.

However, while ‘The Highlight’ looked tremendous in his recent win over Michael Chandler, the fact is that when he fought Khabib Nurmagomedov in late 2020, he looked completely out of his depth.

Sure, he landed some heavy strikes to ‘The Eagle’, namely leg kicks. However, he still couldn’t stop the Dagestani’s takedown. He couldn’t get anything going on the ground before succumbing to a second-round submission loss.

With that considered, then, the fact is that it’d probably be Gaethje who would be in trouble in a fight with Islam Makhachev. Makhachev has been the best wrestler in the division since Nurmagomedov retired, and the similarities between the two are clear.

Given that the blueprint to beating Gaethje has already been written by ‘The Eagle’, there’s a chance that Makhachev can replicate his performance and take ‘The Highlight’ out, probably via submission.

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#1. Islam Makhachev appears to be improving in every fight

Islam Makhachev appears to be improving with every fight

The most worrying thing for Islam Makhachev’s next opponent – whether that’s Charles Oliveira or Justin Gaethje – is the fact that he doesn’t yet seem to have reached his peak in the octagon.

Makhachev turned 30 years old in September, putting him in his athletic prime. Based on his form in his recent fights, he’s continually improving, particularly in terms of his finishing ability.

Makhachev’s last four wins have come with finishes, with three submissions to go along with his recent TKO of Bobby Green. When you compare those fights to his earlier bouts with the likes of Chris Wade and Davi Ramos, there’s a major difference.

The fight with Green, for instance, was a real eye-opener. While ‘King’ took the fight on late notice, he still offered a very different threat to Makhachev’s original opponent, Beneil Dariush. Yet, he couldn’t get anything going as Makhachev pressured him on the feet before taking him down and smashing him to pieces.

Essentially, Makhachev has upped the aggression in his recent trips to the octagon, making him more dangerous than ever before. Right now, he looks like a fighter with no weaknesses. By the time his title shot comes around, he may have improved again – which could spell doom for either Charles Oliveira or Justin Gaethje.