5 reasons why Islam Makhachev will dominate Alexander Volkanovski if they clash in the octagon

This weekend at UFC 280, Islam Makhachev claimed the vacant lightweight title by defeating former champion Charles Oliveira in devastating fashion. He then appeared to set up his first defense against current featherweight kingpin Alexander Volkanovski.

There’s no disputing that Alexander Volkanovski has been dominant over the UFC featherweight division, but does he really have what it takes to defeat Islam Makhachev?

‘Alexander the Great’ might be one of the pound-for-pound greats right now, but it seems highly unlikely that he’d be able to dethrone the new lightweight king.

Here are five reasons why Islam Makhachev will dominate Alexander Volkanovski if they clash in the octagon.

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#5. Alexander Volkanovski has not fought at lightweight since 2016 and might struggle with the move

Despite his success at 145lbs, Alexander Volkanovski is not a huge featherweight

One major reason why Alexander Volkanovski might struggle in his potential lightweight title fight with Islam Makhachev is the fact that he hasn’t actually fought at 155lbs since his UFC debut back in 2016.

Sure, ‘Alexander the Great’ once fought as high as 170lbs and even weighed upwards of 200lbs during his career as a Rugby League player before turning to MMA. However, the fact is that his frame simply isn’t all that big.

Volkanovski stands at just 5’6”, and doesn’t appear to cut too much weight to make 145lbs despite the fact that he carries little bodyfat. In comparison, Makhachev is four inches taller and appears to be very lean at 155lbs, suggesting that he has to make a substantial cut to make the lightweight limit.

Essentially, the Australian could pack some muscle on to move up in weight, but the likelihood is that he’d still be giving up plenty of size and strength to Makhachev. For a fighter who loves to play the bully like the Dagestani does, that might be all it takes for him to win.

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#4. Alexander Volkanovski has never fought a wrestler as good as Islam Makhachev

Islam Makhachev is a remarkably dominant wrestler

Alexander Volkanovski has undoubtedly been dominant in the UFC’s featherweight division for the past few years, culminating in his title win in December 2019. However, it is worth noting that his record at 145lbs lacks one major thing: a win over a top-class wrestler.

It’s probably fair to say that the Australian’s best wins are against Max Holloway, Jose Aldo, Chan Sung Jung and Brian Ortega. Three of those fighters are primarily known for their striking. While Ortega is renowned as a grappler, his takedowns are his weakest point.

‘Alexander the Great’ did fight a top wrestler in Chad Mendes back in 2018, but at that stage, ‘Money’ was past his prime having made a return from a lengthy PED-based suspension earlier in that year.

Essentially, none of his experience at 145lbs is likely to prepare him for the incredible wrestling of Islam Makhachev – the most dominant takedown artist at 155lbs since the heyday of his mentor Khabib Nurmagomedov.

Makhachev has averaged 3.42 takedowns per fight during his UFC career, with an accuracy level of 66.7%. Remarkably, that’s the highest accuracy that the lightweight division has ever seen.

Sure, Volkanovski has impressive takedown defense – he’s only been put on his back on eight occasions in his own octagon career – but it’s highly unlikely that he’ll be able to stop Makhachev from planting him on the ground. If that’s the case, then he probably won’t win the fight.

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#3. Islam Makhachev’s confidence appears to be unbreakable right now

After his lightweight title win, Islam Makhachev's confidence is through the roof

Given that he currently sits at No.1 in the UFC’s pound-for-pound rankings, it’s probably fair to say that Alexander Volkanovski’s confidence levels must be very high right now. However, it’s also probably fair to say that Islam Makhachev’s might be even higher.

Sure, ‘Alexander the Great’ is unbeaten in the octagon and has not tasted defeat since way back in 2013, but the majority of his big victories have not come easily.

His first two wins over Max Holloway could easily have gone the other way, even if he clearly won their third clash. He also came dangerously close to being submitted by Brian Ortega in their epic encounter in 2021 even if he pulled through impressively.

Basically, he just doesn’t carry the same aura of invincibility that Makhachev, who has basically run through every opponent he’s faced since 2016 with ease, does right now.

Is it arguable that Volkanovski has faced tougher competition than the Dagestani? Yes, as Holloway, Ortega and Jose Aldo are obviously more highly regarded than the likes of Dan Hooker and Drew Dober.

However, Volkanovski has never dispatched a fellow great with ease in the same way that Makhachev just did to Charles Oliveira.

Basically, it feels like nobody stands a chance against Makhachev right now – and that includes ‘Alexander the Great’, despite all of his accomplishments.

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#2. Alexander Volkanovski’s striking power may not translate to 155lbs

Alexander Volkanovski's striking power might not translate up to 155lbs

The biggest issue that many fighters come up against when they move up in weight is that their striking power often doesn’t translate against heavier fighters.

Sure, over the years there have been examples of this not being the case. Conor McGregor, for instance, was just as lethal at 155lbs as he was at 145lbs, while Dustin Poirier has been more destructive since his move from featherweight to lightweight.

However, former featherweight kingpin Max Holloway clearly didn’t carry the same power in his hands in his brief foray at 155lbs. That should be a concern for Alexander Volkanovski when he makes the same move.

‘Alexander the Great’ is a very different fighter to his great rival ‘Blessed’, but the two men share a similar volume-striking style, based more around their combination work than their one-shot knockout power.

In fact, Volkanovski has only stopped two fighters in recent years, Chad Mendes and Chan Sung Jung, and both men were overwhelmed rather than the Australian switching their lights off.

It’s true that Islam Makhachev’s chin isn’t fully tested. In fact, his only loss in the UFC came via knockout against a fighter not known for his strikes in Adriano Martins. However, being the bigger man, there’s definitely a chance that he’d be able to absorb Volkanovski’s shots if his power doesn’t translate well.

If the Dagestani can do that, then he’s got much more of a chance of landing a big takedown that could well lead to the fight ending in his favour.

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#1. Islam Makhachev is an absolutely ruthless finisher

Islam Makhachev is a genuinely scary finisher on the ground

If Islam Makhachev were renowned as more of a lay-and-pray wrestler, or even as a ground-and-pound fighter looking to grind his foes down over time, ala Colby Covington, then perhaps Alexander Volkanovski would stand a better chance in this potential clash.

After all, even if he were taken down, ‘Alexander the Great’ might be able to work from the bottom to escape, giving him a chance of landing some big shots on the feet.

Unfortunately for the Australian, Makhachev is about as far from a lay-and-pray artist as it gets. The native of Dagestan is probably one of the most ruthless finishers the lightweight division has ever seen, and if he can find a dominant position on the ground, his fights usually end quickly.

Makhachev is deadly from basically any position on the ground, as we’ve seen him finish his foes from side mount, full mount, back mount and even from inside the half-guard. More to the point, he’s actually become a more prolific finisher as the quality of his opponents has improved, something that few fighters can claim.

Essentially, if Makhachev and Volkanovski face off, the chances are that the reigning lightweight king pin will land at least one takedown – and if he can find a dominant position from there, then despite the skills of ‘Alexander the Great’, particularly when it comes to escaping submissions, then the fight is likely to be over.