5 reasons why Leon Edwards will beat Kamaru Usman again

Leon Edwards was responsible for the greatest upset of 2022. He snapped Kamaru Usman's unbeaten stretch in the UFC, bringing his undefeated run to a screeching halt with a thunderous head kick at UFC 278. The win was also memorable for being a come-from-behind victory for the Englishman.

'Rocky' is now scheduled for a trilogy bout with 'The Nigerian Nightmare'. The two men will clash for the third time at UFC 286 to determine the true winner of their rivalry. The former welterweight kingpin is intent on proving that his loss was merely a fluke as he hopes to reclaim his throne.

Meanwhile, Birmingham's finest is determined to earn his first successful title defense by defeating one of the greatest welterweights ever in the Nigerian.

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#5. Leon Edwards is the better striker

Leon Edwards is a better pure striker than Kamaru Usman. 'The Nigerian Nightmare' is a powerful wrestler who has sharpened his striking skills as part of his evolution as a mixed martial artist. However, his striking is almost exclusively restricted to boxing.

Perhaps due to the wear and tear on his knees, Usman doesn't use any kicks or knees for the most part. Instead, he is a stance-switcher who relies on jabs, straights, and crosses. Though the former champion fights mainly from an orthodox stance due to the strength of his jab.

As a southpaw, Leon Edwards uses his lead hand to neutralize his opponent's jab by trapping their lead hand. With his jab taken out of the equation, Kamaru Usman has no choice but to switch stances to southpaw himself. Unfortunately, this plays right into 'Rocky's strengths.

Whenever he faces southpaws, the reigning welterweight kingpin counters southpaw jabs with a looping cross-counter that glides over the top to sting unsuspecting foes. To avoid his foe's punches, Usman slips his head to the outside or inside.

To his misfortune, the last time he did so against 'Rocky', he placed his head right into the path of a seismic head kick. The setup for such kicks will be yet another threat that Usman will be wary of in their trilogy bout.

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#4. Leon Edwards' wrestling

Despite what fans might have made of Leon Edwards' performance at UFC 278, his defensive wrestling stood up to Kamaru Usman's offense before he tired. A lot of the Nigerian's takedowns came from the clinch, as they always do. Edwards excels in clinch sequences, and in the first round, his defense was impregnable.

He used his forearm and framed it against Usman's jaw, shoving it away to break his posture. This also created space and denied 'The Nigerian Nightmare' the closeness needed to bully him to the mat. The only thing missing from Leon Edwards' counter-wrestling was an intercepting elbow.

When Usman turned in at an inward angle to improve his chances for a takedown, 'Rocky' didn't counter him with an elbow from the non-framing side after he tried stepping across him. Instead, Edwards tripped him to secure a takedown. He can build off this success to be better prepared for their rematch.

It was evident in their second fight that Edwards' takedown defense would've held up a lot better if he hadn't gotten somewhat fatigued.

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#3. Leon Edwards was a victim of his environment

Leon Edwards is a fighter who seldom gasses out in his fights. He is often in tremendous physical condition. However, UFC 278 took place in Salt Lake City, which is at a high elevation. Thus, the air there is thinner, rendering it difficult for fighters to fuel their muscles with oxygen.

Similar to what Mexico City did to Cain Velasquez during his bout with Fabricio Werdum, the high elevation sapped Leon Edwards' energy. He grew tired far quicker than he usually does. 'The Nigerian Nightmare', who trains at a high elevation, benefitted from this.

This, however, will not be the case in their rematch, as it will take place in London. 'Rocky' won't tire out as quickly at a lower elevation.

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#2. Kamaru Usman is coming off a brutal knockout

The effects of being knocked out can't be understated. Oftentimes, fighters are a shell of themselves after suffering such losses. Khabib Nurmagomedov, who knows Kamaru Usman well, claimed he's doubtful his friend will ever be the same fighter.

The Nigerian will be turning 36 years old this year, and he won't improve from a physical standpoint moving forward. His UFC 278 bout was also the first time that the former welterweight kingpin had been knocked unconscious.

It wasn't an ordinary loss. He wasn't dropped and then finished with follow-up punches. He was flattened by a brutal head kick that left him stiff and gaping. His ability to take shots may be compromised. If that's the case, he'll be less durable in his upcoming bout with Edwards.

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#1. Kamaru Usman may not have had enough time in the gym

Kamaru Usman is a highly skilled mixed martial artist. Unfortunately, skills alone aren't always enough to guarantee victory in the cage. Sparring and training in the gym are fundamental when it comes to fine-tuning a fighter's reactions to the tendencies of an upcoming foe.

Unfortunately, 'The Nigerian Nightmare' might not have had the necessary time to train enough in preparation for his trilogy bout. Usman had to honor a medical suspension from serious sparring due to the knockout loss he suffered. This prevented him from heading right into the gym to train.

Furthermore, Usman was sighted wearing a hand brace in the final week of December. If his training has been derailed due to injury, he might be underprepared for the 'Rocky' bout. If he steps inside the octagon at anything less than peak condition, he's unlikely to emerge victorious.