5 surprises we can expect Conor McGregor to spring on Dustin Poirier at UFC 264

Conor McGregor will face a must-win situation when he returns to action against Dustin Poirier at UFC 264. Suffering back-to-back losses to Poirier would all but guarantee that the Irishman crashes out of the title picture, given how loaded the lightweight division is.

To add to that, despite being a former lightweight champion, Conor McGregor's record at 155lbs is currently 1-2. He became the lightweight champion at UFC 205 by beating Eddie Alvarez without facing any ranked contenders in the division before the fight.

Conor McGregor went 5-0 in the featherweight division, then beat Chad Mendes for the interim title and successfully unified the belts by beating Jose Aldo at UFC 193. He was scheduled to fight then-lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos for the 155lbs strap, but RDA was forced out of the bout due to an injury.

'Notorious' ended up fighting Nate Diaz at UFC 196 and suffered his first loss in the promotion. The two engaged in a rematch at UFC 202, which the Irishman won via majority decision. By this time, Eddie Alvarez was king of the lightweights.

Conor McGregor became the first champ-champ in UFC history. However, he failed to defend either of his belts as he pursued "The Money Fight" against Floyd Mayweather. 'Notorious' was subsequently stripped of both his UFC belts.

Since then, Conor McGregor has had two outings at lightweight. The first was against Khabib Nurmagomedov at UFC 229 in October 2018, which the Irishman lost via submission. His next lightweight outing came in January 2021 at UFC 257 in a rematch against Dustin Poirier. 'The Diamond' became the first person to hand Conor McGregor a TKO loss.

Effectively, the Irishman's only victory at 155lbs came in 2016.

But how did McGregor find himself in such a precarious situation in the first place? It's simple. Poirier did his homework and implemented a game plan that caught McGregor by utter surprise.

In the past, though, 'Notorious' has proven to have the ability to bounce back from losses by pulling out some new tricks from his bag.

Here are five surprises fans can expect from Conor McGregor against Dustin Poirier at UFC 264:

#5 Conor McGregor could use more elbows

Conor McGregor hits Dustin Poirier with an elbow strike

Conor McGregor displayed his well-rounded striking arsenal during his win against Donald 'Cowboy' Cerrone at UFC 246. The Irishman unleashed some unorthodox shoulder strikes, a head kick, a flying knee, and a combination of punches to put his opponent away.

But against Poirier, McGregor relied heavily on his counterpunching and looked more like a boxer than a mixed martial artist. A telling comment McGregor made on social media, however, revealed that might bring back some weapons he hasn't been using of late.

'Notorious' shared a picture of himself biking outdoors, which showed a small bruise mark on his left elbow. Concerned fans asked if he had a staph infection, and in response, McGregor said:

"No. Just vicious brain damaging elbows."

Utilizing more elbow strikes at UFC 264 is not a bad idea, given that McGregor hurt Poirier with a brutal elbow to the head as he broke off the clinch. In addition, diversifying his offense would allow McGregor to silence his critics who believe that the left hand is his only weapon.

#4 Checking and countering

Dustin Poirier attacks Conor McGregor's leg. [Photo courtesy: UFC's YouTube channel]

Conor McGregor's downfall started with Dustin Poirier's calf kicks and his failure to defend against them. By the second round, McGregor's mobility and explosiveness had clearly been hampered, with his lead leg tremendously damaged and rendered useless.

On top of that, Poirier did an excellent job staying unpredictable, mixing up his barrage of calf kicks with level changes and power shots. He also prevented McGregor from using his most powerful weapon – the left counterpunch – by not committing to his jab.

Not knowing what's coming next, McGregor opened himself up to a world of danger. At UFC 264, though, the Irishman will have the benefit of having himself familiarized with Poirier's offense.

A low calf kick is a difficult strike to defend against as it inflicts damage even when checked. That said, there are a few Muay Thai techniques McGregor would find useful to prevent a repeat of UFC 257 from happening.

#3 Conor McGregor's alter ego, 'Mystic Mac,' returns

Conor McGregor is also known as 'Mystic Mac' for his uncanny ability to make detailed predictions that unfold in real life. The former two-division champion previously turned in a prediction about how he believes his trilogy bout against Dustin Poirier will go down. On Instagram, the Irishman posted a photo of himself practicing a front kick with a prediction laid out in the caption.

This isn't the first time McGregor has channeled his prophetic talents in a fight against 'The Diamond'. The Dublin native predicted an early stoppage against Poirier in their first go-round at UFC 178 and followed through with a TKO win at the 1:46 mark of the opening round.

For McGregor to pull off his prediction, he would have to do something only a handful of fighters have achieved. Anderson Silva, Travis Browne, Ben Alloway, and Lyoto Machida (who did it twice) are the only fighters in UFC history to have scored finishes with a front kick.

#3 Conor McGregor can turn his weakness into an advantage

Throughout his career, the ground game is believed to be Conor McGregor's greatest weakness. The argument carries some merit to it as four out of McGregor's five career losses came by way of submission.

But McGregor could use his reputation as a mediocre grappler to his advantage. Poirier has already shown in their most previous fight that he's willing to go to the ground with McGregor. Knowing this, McGregor should be prepared to pull out a submission to try and finish the fight. At the very least, it will give his Poirier something to think about every time he shoots for a takedown.

Watch Conor McGregor's only win by submission:

Granted, a McGregor win by submission is the unlikeliest outcome of the fight as Poirier is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt. Then again, McGregor has the luxury of learning from the best. His coach, John Kavanagh, holds the distinction of being the first-ever Irish BJJ black belt.

#1 Bring back 2014 Conor McGregor at UFC 264

UFC Fight Night: Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway

Another way to avoid Poirier's daunted calf kicks is by bringing back the Conor McGregor of old. At UFC 257, the 32-year-old relied heavily on his boxing, setting aside some of his weapons in the process.

McGregor's wide boxing stance is what allows him to land his signature counterpunches with such power and speed. However, it's also what ultimately led to his downfall as his lead leg was left vulnerable to low kicks.

In contrast, the version of McGregor that fought Poirier at UFC 178 used a karate stance that allowed him to dart in and out of his opponent's range. Doing so would also allow McGregor to check leg kicks more effectively, something he can't do with his boxing stance.

The problem with it, however, is that McGregor would have to expend more energy moving around. Considering his cardio has always been a point of concern, will he be able to maintain that stance for five rounds? Only time will tell.