Islam Makhachev will face Bobby Green in this Saturday's UFC main event. Green is a short-notice replacement for Makhachev's intended opponent, Beneil Dariush. The change in opponents could significantly impact the Russian's chances of securing the next lightweight title shot.
Initially, the fight between Makhachev and Dariush seemed like a clear-cut number one contender bout in the lightweight division. However, with the Russian now facing an unranked opponent, just how much a win would help his case for a title shot is unclear.
This is mainly due to the ongoing narrative that Makhachev is yet to face truly elite competition in the UFC. Compared to some of the others around him in the rankings, it is true that he lacks a big-name victory that fighters typically need to secure a title shot.
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Even if Makhachev can win on Saturday, he is no longer in a position to earn this signature victory. With that in mind, it now seems conceivable that several fighters might be able to sneak past the Russian and secure their title shot first.
Here are five UFC lightweights who may get a title shot before Islam Makhachev:
#5. Bobby Green - unranked UFC lightweight
Even after Bobby Green's most recent victory over Nasrat Haqparast, there was no suggestion that he was in the title conversation. However, all that changed when it was announced that Green would be returning to the octagon two weeks later to face Islam Makhachev.
While Green remains an unranked fighter in the division, his road to a potential title run has just become substantially shorter. While it will be a huge ask for Green to defeat the surging Makhachev, if he is to pull off the upset, he might just become the No.1 contender.
The fact that this will be a catchweight bout might just help Green, who typically walks around much heavier than 155 lbs. Additionally, Makhachev has been preparing for a different opponent, and Green hasn't had to deal with the mental burden of having this fight looming.
While he will be a heavy underdog on Saturday, if Green can win, he will immediately become one of the top contenders for the UFC lightweight title.
#4. Rafael dos Anjos - No.6 ranked UFC lightweight
It seems as though there is a significant chance that the UFC will not simply hand Islam Makhachev a title shot with a win on Saturday. If the Russian doesn't finish Bobby Green, he will likely lose momentum. These factors may mean that Khabib Nurmagomedov's protege will have to face one more opponent before fighting for gold.
In this scenario, that man could well turn out to be Rafael dos Anjos. The former lightweight champion will fight Rafael Fiziev on March 5. Should he put on a particularly impressive performance in that one, he could become a viable option to face Makhachev if he needs one more fight.
With the pair fighting just one week apart, the fighters are already on a similar timeline and might be able to get another fight in without much delay. If Dos Anjos beats Makhachev, he would gain all of the Russian's momentum and would likely have a title shot in the future.
#3. Michael Chandler - No. 5 ranked UFC lightweight
Michael Chandler may be coming off consecutive losses, but he is currently only one spot behind Islam Makhachev in the UFC rankings. With this in mind, perhaps there is a chance Chandler will be able to leapfrog Makhachev in the queue for the title shot.
The only reason this seems like a possibility at the moment is that Makhachev is now facing an unranked opponent. Even if the Russian wins, there will likely be those who suggest he ought to face a tougher test before challenging for the title. This is where Michael Chandler could come in.
Chandler appears to be headed for a big-time fight against the popular Tony Ferguson. Should Chandler win that, he would be right back in the title picture at 155 lbs, and a fight with Makhachev could make sense. If the American could get the win in that one, he would jump ahead in the race for a title shot.
Additionally, Chandler has had close, entertaining fights with Charles Oliveira and Justin Gaethje may help his case for a rematch with either of them.
#2. Dustin Poirier - No.2 ranked UFC lightweight
Dustin Poirier may be fresh off a defeat for the UFC lightweight championship. However, he remains one of the best in the division. Poirier could be a great opponent for Makhachev should the Russian win on Saturday but need another fight to challenge for the gold.
There could also be another route for Poirier to overtake Makhachev. If 'The Diamond' does get the highly anticipated bout with Nate Diaz and can win, things could get very interesting. This scenario would only make sense should Justin Gaethje win the belt, given Poirier has defeated him in the past.
In either of these scenarios, there seems to be a legitimate chance for Dustin Poirier to overtake Islam Makhachev and challenge for the lightweight title first. While it might seem like a shocking development at present, nothing can be ruled out in the UFC.
#1. Conor McGregor - No.9 ranked UFC lightweight
You can completely discard McGregor's No.9 spot in the rankings because it’s pretty clear that won't affect him much. If 'The Notorious' returns later this year, he will instantly be in the title conversation and could even get an immediate title shot.
McGregor is the biggest star the sport has ever seen, so a singular win at 155 lbs would likely earn him a shot at the title. While it may be more of a stretch, a win for him at 170 lbs could also be enough. There's even been talk of McGregor's next fight being one for the title, which would leave Makhachev waiting in the wings.
For the latter to happen, it would likely take an Oliveira win over Gaethje, followed by the champion calling out the Irishman. While that is not a given, it also does not seem inconceivable. McGregor's popularity is on a different planet to Makhachev's, so he might just overtake the Russian in the race for a title shot.