An early and hypothetical look at Kamaru Usman vs. Stephen Thompson

Kamaru Usman vs. Stephen Thompson is a matchup that probably should have taken place several years ago, when 'The Nigerian Nightmare' was still the reigning UFC welterweight champion and 'Wonderboy' was on a two-fight win streak. Instead, Kamaru Usman opted to face Jorge Masvidal in a money fight.

Now, in 2023, both men are eager to work their way up the rankings. Usman is determined to recapture his welterweight strap, while Thompson longs to return to title contention, after coming up short in his first two championship bouts back in 2016 and 2017. To do so, they must triumph over worthy foes.

Kamaru Usman has not fought anyone since suffering back-to-back losses to Leon Edwards. Meanwhile, Stephen Thompson has scored just one win since losing to Belal Muhammad. Both men have recently expressed an interest in facing each other.

While the UFC tried to match up 'The Nigerian Nightmare' with Khamzat Chimaev, and 'Wonderboy' with Ian Machado Garry, they failed. So how exactly would a bout between Usman and Thompson go, since they seem intent on facing each other?

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Fighter Profile: Kamaru Usman

All fights start on the feet. Kamaru Usman has developed a competent striking game that added an element of finality to his fighting style once he became the UFC welterweight champion, a title he no longer holds. Despite not having an elite skill-set as a striker, he is highly effective due to his fundamentals and power.

Kamaru Usman's preferred stance is orthodox, which allows him to use his jab as a measuring tool for his lethal right cross. If he can hit his opponent with his jab, then he can hit them with his right hand, which carries tremendous knockout power, enough for him to become the first fighter to knock Jorge Masvidal out cold.

Kamaru Usman also invests in bodywork, landing uppercuts, hooks and jabs to his foe's midsection. His time under the tutelage of former kickboxer Henri Hooft has also led to the development of a respectable kicking game, with 'The Nigerian Nightmare' making good use of teeps to the body, when an opening provides itself.

As a wrestler, he can kick without fear of getting his leg caught and being taken down. While he generally fights from orthodox, he is an apt stance-switcher, and retains great power in his left hand as well. By switching to southpaw, Kamaru Usman successfully changes the alignment of his opponent's strikes.

This forces his opponent to reset their approach every time he switches stances, while also lining up his left cross. This was noticeable in his rematch with Colby Covington, who was prepared to low kick the former champion, only to find that he had switched stances, which removed his lead leg as a target.

Kamaru Usman's drawbacks as a striker lie in his defense and his decision-making. His head movement is similar to Dominick Cruz's in that whenever he tries to slip a punch or exit exchanges out of an angle, he leans his head too low, making him vulnerable to intercepting knees and head kicks.

This is what led to his knockout loss against Leon Edwards. While his power is devastating whenever he throws straight punches, it all but vanishes whenever he commits to looping punches like hooks and overhands due to his poor mechanics. But his main strength, as is well-known, lies in his wrestling and grappling.

Kamaru Usman is a master in the clinch, using an overhook-underhook grip to pin his foe to the fence, as he punishes them with uppercuts and hooks to the body, as well as knees to the thigh. He also frequently stomps his opponent's feet. While this seems inconsequential, it serves a purpose.

Kamaru Usman does so to dupe his foe into moving their foot away from another stomp, allowing him to score a quick trip while their foot is off the ground. Due to his well-known knee issues, he isn't explosive when shooting for double-leg takedowns, and often positions his head on the outside of his opponent's hip.

This exposes him to potential guillotine chokes, but he is yet to be submitted in that manner. It is likely because he doesn't commit to such takedowns often, as he prefers grappling in the clinch, where he secures underhooks and blocks his opponent's hips with his own before lifting, turning at an angle and slamming them.

This is also how he completes his single-leg takedowns. Kamaru Usman will shoot for a double-leg against the fence to convince his opponent to widen their base. Once they oblige, he switches to a single-leg and blocks their hips with his own before lifting and slamming them.

Despite his strength and skill as a wrestler, 'The Nigerian Nightmare' isn't much of a finishing threat on the mat. He rarely resorts to submissions, having only one such win on his record, and his ground-and-pound isn't as powerful as it could potentially be.

On the mat, Kamaru Usman is all about control. He maintains heavy top pressure, shoving his hips and shoulders into his opponent to flatten them out. But he doesn't capitalize on it with guard passing, and is content to simply pin their wrists and use his free hand to land punches.

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Fighter Profile: Stephen Thompson

There are very few strikers who can match Stephen Thompson's skill on the feet. In his prime, he was lightning quick. But according to Kevin Holland, 'Wonderboy' remains extremely fast, even into his 40s. The key to the former welterweight title challenger's success has always been his distance management.

This is especially evident whenever Thompson faces someone larger than him. He uses his wide, bladed stance while standing sidewards, allowing him to dart in and out of range with great speed. Furthermore, he, like fellow karateka and former light heavyweight champion Lyoto Machida, maintains an unusually long distance.

This long distance forces his opponent to close the distance on him. But due to the additional steps they need to walk to get closer, it affords Stephen Thompson more time to make the necessary reads to land a potential counterpunch. He gives himself time to study his opponent's go-to decisions and long-range attacks.

In short, his opponent unknowingly telegraphs their intent to him, allowing him to dart in and out to land counters whenever they come forward. Eventually, this frustrates his foe into lunging after him. But the moment they do so, 'Wonderboy' bursts forward to counter them mid-lunge with a left straight.

This creates a collision between his opponent's chin and his left hand. And because his foe's lunge has tremendous momentum, when Thompson's counter-left straight lands, it often leads to a knockout. He is also exceptionally skilled at countering low kicks.

He'll fake a forward dart to draw the kick out. If his opponent obliges, Thompson relies on his speed to catch them with a side-kick or counterpunch over the top, while his foe's kicking leg is still airborne, often leading to humiliating knockdowns, as both Vicente Luque and former BMF champion Jorge Masvidal can attest.

He continually frustrates his opponent, and if they try to lunge forward, he may alternate between his counter left and simply sidestepping them, which causes his foe to be badly out of position after missing a wild swing. He then follows up with combinations on their open side as they reset their stance.

Unfortunately, for him, not every fighter will charge into range. Some opponents show hesitation, but as a striker who is equally adept on the front foot as he is on the retreat, 'Wonderboy' is content to dart in and out of range, peppering his opponent with straight punches and kicks as he backs them up to the fence.

Once there, Thompson batters them with combinations, as seen during his win over former welterweight champion Johny Hendricks. From a defensive standpoint, Stephen Thompson is also impressive, as he uses his footwork to great effect.

He is difficult to back up, and quickly flattens out his stance the moment he's close to the black lines near the fence. Even against skilled cage-cutters, he shuffles from side to side, faking left, then right to draw out a punch, before circling out in the opposite direction back into open space.

This is also why he is difficult to take down. He isn't necessarily a great defensive wrestler, though he does have a good sprawl. It's more-so that he is difficult to get close to, or used to be. With age, he's slowed down. Even if he's still fast, the likes of Belal Muhammad have managed to do what was once more difficult.

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The Verdict

Both Kamaru Usman and Stephen Thompson are in the twilight of their respective careers. If they square off, 'Wonderboy's' eye for counters would surely be sharp to Usman's exaggerated leaning, creating opportunities for head kicks. But Thompson's slight dip in speed is worrying when it comes to takedown defense.

If Kamaru Usman manages to close the distance on him, there is almost no chance 'Wonderboy' is getting back to his feet. But as the recent title fight between Sean O'Malley and Aljamain Sterling showcased, a side-stepping sniper can score a knockout against an overconfident wrestler lunging into range.

But the likelihood is that Stephen Thompson would lose via decision. Even in his prime, he'd struggle to beat an opponent of Kamaru Usman's caliber. The Nigerian-American is too strong a wrestler, too disciplined, and catching a kick could see him score a high-crotch single-leg, from which Thompson isn't getting back up.