An early look at Islam Makhachev vs. Charles Oliveira 2

Islam Makhachev finally has an opponent for the UFC 294 main event. For a while, it looked as though the reigning lightweight champion would have no one to face come October 21. Alexander Volkanovski, a man with whom he had a blockbuster bout at UFC 284, is recovering from surgery.

Meanwhile, Charles Oliveira made a triumphant return to action with a first-round TKO over Beneil Dariush at UFC 289. But in the aftermath of his impressive win, and after calling for a rematch with Islam Makhachev, 'do Bronx' curiously claimed that he'd be unable to meet the October 21 date for UFC 294.

The reasons behind his statement remain unclear, and even more so now that he has been confirmed as Islam Makhachev's upcoming opponent for that very same card. Peculiarities aside, the rematch has been set and expectations are high. But what will happen once both men cross swords for a second time?

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Fighter Profile: Islam Makhachev

One of the greatest revelations about Islam Makhachev from his recent scrap with Alexander Volkanovski is that he's an exceptional striker, especially on the backfoot. His counters are sharp and he has a keen eye for openings. In fact, it is not just 'The Great' that he has stunned with a counterpunch, but Oliveira as well.

In the pair's UFC 280 clash, the Dagestani phenom read the flying knee his foe tried to land and slid just out of range. With Charles Oliveira midair and widening his arms for balance, he left his chin exposed. Islam Makhachev spotted the opening and cracked him with a check right hook, dropping him.

He similarly found an opening against Volkanovski in the first round of their bout. During an exchange, the featherweight kingpin grew overconfident and tried to close the distance with a shifting combination from orthodox. Makhachev, however, was in his southpaw stance, aligning his rear left hand with Volkanovski's chin.

As the Australian stormed forward, Islam Makhachev moved his head off the center-line, rolled with his foe's punches, and countered him mid-shift with a left hook that dropped him to a knee. Islam Makhachev is an excellent reader of his opponent's tendencies, and uses feints to set up his counters.

He frequently feints his jab to draw out his opponent's strikes to subsequently counter them. If his foe manages to get in close enough, he folds his left arm into an intercepting elbow or quickly traps his opponent with a double collar-tie and fires a knee up the middle.

Furthermore, he often benefits from fighting opponents who adopt orthodox stances. This aligns his rear left leg with the open side of their midsection and head, allowing him to punish them with body kicks and head kicks. And since he is rarely in danger of being taken down, he kicks without much fear.

But everyone knows what Islam Makhachev's true strengths as a fighter are: his wrestling and ground-game. The feared school of Dagestani wrestling takes on a refined form when used by Islam Makhachev. He is highly skilled at drawing his foe into fire fights, only to duck under a punch and shoot on their squared hips.

He quickly turns in at an angle once he's locked his hands behind their legs and steps over any attempt they make to roll with the momentum of his takedown. Islam Makhachev is dissimilar from Khabib Nurmagomedov in this regard. He does not apply endless forward pressure and shoot for takedowns out of range.

Instead, he is patient and calculating. Additionally, he makes excellent use of the clinch, where he specializes in scoring Judo-based takedowns. If, at any point, his foe manages to pin him to the fence, he starts kneeing their midsection with the intention of drawing them into responding with knees of their own.

However, the moment his opponent obliges and lifts their knee to attack, he quickly hooks his leg around his foe's standing leg to score a sneaky trip. He also does so in the open, varying his takedowns as they won't come exclusively from the fence. Once the fight hits the mat, Makhachev reveals himself as a submission specialist.

Whereas Khabib Nurmagomedov tries to use ground-and-pound, while occasionally threatening with submissions, Islam Makhachev is mainly concerned with control and submissions. He wraps his legs around his foe's, raising their ankles off the ground so they can neither stand nor threaten him with submissions.

He also tugs their wrist under them, trapping their arm under their torso while shoving his head and shoulders against their chest, pinning them to the ground on top of their own arm. Meanwhile, he'll raise his hips and step over their legs to pass guard while pinning them to the mat.

From these positions, he'll hunt for submissions, like his kimura over Dan Hooker. Still, he can threaten with ground-and-pound, as Bobby Green found out. But this is the crux of Islam Makhachev's game.

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Fighter Profile: Charles Oliveira

Charles Oliveira is a finisher and holds numerous records that can attest to that. Whether a fight is on the feet or on the mat, he is a constant danger to everyone he faces. As a striker, he is a powerful puncher with a lethal Muay Thai base and does his best work moving forward.

When 'do Bronx' is allowed to apply pressure, he can swarm his opponent with an avalanche of strikes. One of the former champion's main tools is his teep to the body. He batters his foe's midsection with front kicks that not only back his opponent up to the fence, but also chips away at their cardio.

By ruthlessly attacking the body, 'do Bronx' can ensure that his opponent is exhausted by the second or third round. But his kicks are more diverse than that. In his TKO win over Beneil Dariush, he took a page from Robert Whittaker's book and used a right straight to dupe his foe into slipping the punch on the outside.

Little did he know, he was moving his head into the path of a thunderous right head kick. Occasionally, he'll also threaten his opponent with a jumping switch-kick. But his main weapons are his hands. Oliveira fights tall and long, making great use of his height and reach.

He uses his kicks to find his range, as opposed to using a jab, as his opponents often refuse to take him down for fear of being submitted. So he can kick as liberally as he pleases. Once he finds his range, he lets his hands go, especially to coax his foe into trading with him.

But as he is generally much taller and longer than his opponents, they must enter range to land on him, while he is already in range to land his blows by default. This renders him an underrated counterpuncher, as Michael Chandler found out. Charles Oliveira dropped him with a picture-perfect check left hook.

What is a jab range for his foes, is merely hook range for him. This is also why he extends his combinations. It draws his opponents into the line of fire as they try to dissuade him from overwhelming them with his volume. But every time they wade forward, they run into punches at a range they can't easily return fire from.

As far as his flaws are concerned, they are mostly defensive in nature. He doesn't move his head off the center-line much, and does not keep his chin tucked. However, when hurt, he is quick to draw his opponent into a Thai clinch, landing knees to the head or body as he smothers their punches.

But Oliveira's greatest threat is his Brazilian jiu-jitsu. He is a submission specialist without equal. His length and height allow him to secure chokes from angles and with leverage that shorter limbs simply don't have. Additionally, Oliveira hunts his opponent's back, where he finds safer submissios like rear-naked chokes.

But he is also opportunistic. When he defeated Kevin Lee, he made 'The Motown Phenom' pay for shooting for a takedown with his head positioned on the outside of the hip. Oliveira immediately wrapped him up in a counter-guillotine to draw the tap. But it doesn't end there. He is also dangerous off his back.

He doesn't panic when grounded, and has proven his superiority over high-level grapplers like Tony Ferguson. On the mat, Charles Oliveira uses a butterfly guard or the threat of an omoplata to sweep his foes. Hardly anyone defeats a skilled fighter with shoulder locks, much less an omoplata.

But, Oliveira uses it to force his opponent to roll out of the submission, only to himself roll with their momentum and wind up on top. His sharp mind for every tenet of grappling is why he holds the record for the most submissions in UFC history.

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The Verdict

Charles Oliveira and Islam Makhachev have fought before, and 'do Bronx' has admitted to not watching tape of his loss is troubling. A fighter must study their shortcomings in-depth. Furthermore, Oliveira is frequently hurt in his bouts, but his foes rarely follow-up with ground-and-pound due to a fear of being submitted.

This was not the case when Paul Felder defeated him, as he showed no fear of the Brazilian's ground game. Neither did Islam Makhachev. Furthermore, Charles Oliveira's orthodox stance means his chin is always aligned with Islam Makhachev's rear left hand.

Worse still, his tendency to look for knees in the clinch could lead to him being tripped to the mat, like he was in their first fight. These matters are not helped by the Brazilian claiming that he'll approach the fight no differently than he does any other.

On the ground, his legs being triangled will stop him from threatening with any submissions, and while he can certainly win the fight, it's unlikely that he'll defeat Islam Makhachev in enemy territory, especially with him framing his loss as an off-night instead of accepting that his foe was simply good enough to win.

Thus, Islam Makhachev is likely to win in a more competitive bout by either TKO or submission.