An early look at Khamzat Chimaev vs. Paulo Costa

If the UFC has its way, Khamzat Chimaev and Paulo Costa will both make their way into the octagon come October 21 for UFC 294. Neither man has fought since 2022. 'Borz' last fought back in September, while 'Borrachinha' appeared a month prior in August.

The scheduled bout between the two men is the culmination of tensions that have been boiling since the Brazilian predicted a Nate Diaz win over Khamzat Chimaev. Costa referred to Chimaev as a 'gourmet Chechen' before the two had a well-known confrontation at the UFC Performance Institute before UFC 279.

Now, both men have the chance to settle their differences. Whether they make it to the cage remains to be seen, especially given how badly Chimaev missed weight in his last bout, albeit at welterweight, and how unreliable Costa has been with his frequent pull-outs. Regardless, a fight of this magnitude deserves a preview.

So this is an early look at the matchup between Khamzat Chimaev and Paulo Costa.

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Fighter Profile: Khamzat Chimaev

All fights start on the feet, and Khamzat Chimaev has proven himself as a nuclear threat in the striking department. The unbeaten Chechen is powerful. Fans need only watch his 17-second knockout over Gerald Meerschaert to catch a glimpse of his punching power.

That isn't to say that Meerschaert is an elite fighter, but in 51 bouts, 'GM3' has only ever been finished via strikes four times. Of those four times, only one of them was an actual one-punch knockout as opposed to a TKO. That one flatline was Khamzat Chimaev, and their bout was at middleweight.

Beyond his natural abundance of knockout power, 'Borz' does several things to maximize his chances of shutting his opponent's lights out. First, he always looks to place his own lead foot on the outside of his foe's, aligning their chin with his rear-hand, which is almost always his right as he traditionally fights from orthodox.

Despite this, he is an apt stance-switcher, who will shift to southpaw to destabilize his opponent's adaptations to his own striking alignments. A southpaw's jab is what first dropped Gilbert Burns, for example. But from his orthodox stance, Khamzat Chimaev pumps his jab forward as a range-finding tool.

If his jab lands, that means his right hand can as well. Furthermore, Khamzat Chimaev uses front kicks to the body to back his opponent up to the fence, where he can initiate cage-wrestling sequences. But these teeps to the body also cause his foe to straighten their stance and narrow their footing.

This leaves them in the worst possible position to both avoid and absorb his devastating right hook. Khamzat Chimaev keeps his guard very tight when throwing punches, always rotating his hips, while also throwing his right hook closer to his chest, making it a linear punch more akin to a right straight.

This allows him to split his opponent's guard open. At times, he'll throw an uppercut through the guard, which is what landed his knockout blow against Ikram Aliskerov in their pre-UFC days. Unfortunately, two of Khamzat Chimaev's greatest flaws are his defensive striking and discipline.

He has a tendency to brawl in the heat of the moment, and doesn't move his head off the center-line when throwing punches. Additionally, his brawling instincts can often lead to him emptying his gas tank. Worse still, he doesn't cut off his foe's angles of escaping, chasing them in a straight line.

This tendency is what led to Ronda Rousey's crushing defeat at Holly Holm's hands. But Khamzat Chimaev also has his wrestling and grappling skills to rely on. He is an exceptional wrestler and great grappler. While he can shoot traditional double-leg takedowns, most of his work comes from the clinch.

Still, he is absurdly fast when diving under for a takedown. Just ask Kevin Holland. In addition to setting up his punches, his teeps to the body also set up his takedowns. Because his kicks cause his foe to stand straighter, it leaves them in a poor position to widen their base and sprawl.

Right after a front kick, Khamzat Chimaev will sometimes shoot for a lightning-quick takedown. Alternatively, he'll establish the threat of round kicks to the body, then use the action of squaring his hips and lifting his leg to entice his foe into trying to counterpunch him, only for him to dive under for a well-timed takedown.

His other methods for getting the fight to the ground involve his clinch work. For example, he'll pummel for underhooks in the clinch, lift his opponent off the ground, and block their hip with his own to swing and slam them. Once the fight is on the mat, Khamzat Chimaev dominates.

He quickly seizes wrist-control, tugging his foe's arm to trap it under their torso, pinning it under their weight to render them one-armed. Much like UFC Hall of Famer Khabib Nurmagomedov and reigning lightweight kingpin Islam Makhachev, when 'Borz' does so, he also hooks his legs around his opponent's.

This allows him to lift their ankles off the mat, stopping his foe from standing up and threatening with submissions, all while he pummels them with ground-and-pound. If an opponent turns away, he'll jump on the opening to sink in a choke of any variety.

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Fighter Profile: Paulo Costa

Paulo Costa has undergone an impressive evolution as a fighter. The beginning of his UFC run was poor, as he was a TUF failure after losing his second bout in The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil 3. He had no foundation in striking whatsoever and wasn't much more than a brutally strong Brazilian jiu-jitsu grappler.

Worse still, he lacked the cardio to grapple as extensively as he tried to. When he returned to the UFC three years later, however, he was a different beast. He was a pressure fighter with exceptional fundamentals and a 100% finishing rate, all from first-round drubbings.

The moment a fight starts, 'Borrachinha' applies immediate pressure, crowding his opponent's space by shuffling his feet from side to side whenever they try to circle away from him. He cuts off their angles of escape, inching ever so closer while punishing them with strikes and moving laterally, stepping across their body.

Before long, his foes find themselves trapped against the fence, sandwiched between him and the cage. Any attempt at circling back out into the center of the octagon is met with either a round right kick to the body or a left hook to the body. Neither is meant to deal damage, only to act as barriers for his foe to crash into.

With no other recourse, his opponent shells up and he unloads. Paulo Costa isn't freakishly powerful, he is no heavy-handed nuclear threat like Francis Ngannou. Instead, he is a big, strong middleweight who hits hard enough. He is a volume puncher who clubs his foes with combinations until they crumble.

This is how he melted former welterweight champion Johny Hendricks. He is also a dedicated body puncher, and often throws uppercuts that really dig into the midsection, siphoning his foe's gas tank. Two of the most informative fights about Paulo Costa as a fighter is his war against Yoel Romero and win over Uriah Hall.

Against Yoel Romero, the future middleweight title challenger revealed how absurdly strong he is. When Romero scored a takedown, Costa simply chucked him off of him. Furthermore, his use of body uppercuts makes it so that his short arms are in position to fight for underhooks so he can sprawl and stop takedowns.

Against Hall, his lack of head movement and open guard revealed how easy it is to slip a jab through. Hall landed his jab constantly, bloodying the Brazilian. Another informative bout is his surprising loss to fellow former title challenger Marvin Vettori.

'The Italian Dream' struggled to score traditional double and single-leg takedowns, but succeeded in securing takedowns from the clinch due to Costa's short arms making it harder for him to generate leverage as well as secure bodylocks. Furthermore, he also tires when forced to grapple extensively.

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The Verdict

Both men are pressure fighters by trade, but historically, Paulo Costa has been far easier to back up. Khamzat Chimaev refuses to backwards step, and neither man is effective when forced to fight on the backfoot. Furthermore, 'Borrachinha' won't be able to forcibly apply forward pressure due to Chimaev's takedown threat.

While he thwarted Romero's takedowns, 'The Soldier of God' is not a dedicated wrestler despite his Olympic credentials. Also, Chimaev's clinch work could prove difficult for Costa's short arms and inferior leverage. His vulnerability to straights and jabs splitting his guard down the middle could also be his undoing.

Khamzat Chimaev is significantly more powerful at middleweight than at welterweight, and neither his cardio nor chin will be diminished from a large weight cut. Come UFC 294, 'Borz' should emerge victorious via late TKO or submission.