Belal Muhammad vs. Gilbert Burns prediction and odds: Breaking down the welterweight title eliminator

Belal Muhammad vs. Gilbert Burns is arguably the most important bout in the welterweight division besides an outright title fight. The winner is all but guaranteed a crack at the divisional throne against whoever emerges victorious between Leon Edwards and Colby Covington later this year.

The two men have both everything to gain and everything to lose come UFC 288. the Brazilian jiu-jitsu phenom aims to earn a second shot at the UFC welterweight title after coming up short against Kamaru Usman two years ago. Meanwhile, 'Remember the Name' is on a lengthy unbeaten streak.

He has never been this close to 170-pound gold and must do everything in his power to emerge victorious in Saturday's co-main event. So who will the Belal Muhammad vs. Gilbert Burns matchup come UFC 288?

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Belal Muhammad vs. Gilbert Burns: Wrestling & Grappling

There is no denying that, like the main event, the Belal Muhammad vs. Gilbert Burns matchup will be determined by whoever can score takedowns. Of the two men, the Palestinian-American is a more dedicated wrestler. His primary path to victory in every fight is by scoring takedowns, which he is well-equipped for.

Whether he is wrestling in open space or against the fence, 'Remember the Name' is a smothering force who immediately pressures his foes. His intention is to score reactive takedowns against opponents who throw reckless strikes to ward away his pressure in a bid to create space. The moment they do so, he shoots under.

Even against opponents who wisely search for underhooks and scoot their hips back to defend his takedowns, Belal Muhammad remains driven. In those situations, he simply turns at a deeper angle to drag his foes to the canvas or against the fence, both of which Stephen Thompson learned the hard way.

Defensively, 'Remember the Name' is extremely difficult to take down as he immediately overhooks one of his foe's arms and shoves their head down to his ankle to hop out of their grip. He also immediately fights for wrist-control to negate the potential of bodylocks.

Even the great Demiana Maia scored just one takedown out of 21 against him. Sadly, Muhammad's wrestling isn't up to par with his grappling on the mat. He is anything but a submission threat, with only one submission win in his entire career. His Brazilian jiu-jitsu consists almost entirely of mat-returns and mounts.

Gilbert Burns, on the other hand, is a far greater submission threat. While his wrestling doesn't include much besides an blast double-leg takedown and rare clinch throws, both of which rely on his speed and explosiveness, 'Durinho' is unrivaled on the mat at 170-pounds.

Undefeated rising star Khamzat Chimaev abandoned every intention to take the Brazilian down after a single experience grappling with him on the ground. According to 'Borz', it was the threat of Burns' armbar that dissuaded him from pursuing any further action on the mat.

As much as Ronda Rousey earned acclaim for her vicious armbars, Gilbert Burns is deserving of similar praise. He is a three-time Brazilian jiu-jitsu world champion, who has mastered the armbar as a method of deterrence against foes who insist on taking him down.

'Durinho' quickly triangles his opponent's arm with his legs, which keeps his feet in close proximity to his foe's hands, allowing him to kick open their grip and finish his armbar. This also enables him to hook one of his legs around his opponent's head to apply greater leverage as he pulls the arm back with his body.

While 'Remember the Name' is the superior wrestler, what point will he have if he takes down 'Durinho' only to be either armbarred or swept out of position? Burns' grappling is such that he will even use a rare shoulder-lock like an omoplata just to cause his foes to roll out of it—which enables him to roll on top of them.

The Belal Muhammad vs. Gilbert Burns matchup on this front is decidedly in the Brazilian's favor. He has no reason to fear the takedown, because if the fight does hit the canvas, both men will be in his world. Even Kamaru Usman was wary of pursuing takedowns against him.

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Belal Muhammad vs. Gilbert Burns: Striking

Unfortunately, kickboxing is where Belal Muhammad falls truly short. Despite his TKO win over the formerly undefeated Sean Brady, 'Remember the Name' is not the world's greatest striker. He lacks any threatening KO power and makes up for it with pressure and volume.

By and large, he doesn't deviate from his liberal use of jabs, one-twos, and a spree of kicks. Against orthodox fighters like Gilbert Burns, 'Remember the Name' favors low kicks. His intention is to engulf his opponents in high-volume jabs and kicks, overloading their decision-making process.

This either freezes his foes into defensively inert shells that are ripe for his takedowns, or it causes them to lash out with a wild punch in a bid for breathing room, allowing him to duck under a punch and dive into their squared hips. Unfortunately, his specific striking style is tailor-made for Gilbert Burns.

The former title challenger is a better and more effective striker. He is fast due to his past as a lightweight, but more than anything, he is powerful, being the only UFC fighter to drop Khamzat Chimaev. The nuclear heat in his fists is something that Belal Muhammad must watch out for.

He must pay specific attention to Gilbert Burns' left hook given his past loss to Vicente Luque. Belal Muhammad's frequent use of the jab leaves him open to one of 'Durinho's' patented counterpunches: slipping the jab to land a left hook or overhand right over the top.

Additionally, he can destabalize Muhammad's stance with calf kicks. Burns is a cunning calf kicker. Due to his foe's use of jabs, Muhammad's lead leg is often overexposed as any good jab requires the extension—stepping in—of his stance every time he jabs. This has turned calf kicks into perfect counters for jabs.

If Burns counters him with calf kicks, the split-second his foe will take to reset his stance will leave him open to power punches over the top. Furthermore, Burns himself will have little fear of Muhammad, who has five TKO wins in 22 fights, this could be a deciding factor in the Belal Muhammad vs. Gilbert Burns clash.

He is not a finisher and will be at a distinct disadvantage against 'Durinho'. On the striking front of the Belal Muhammad vs. Gilbert Burns matchup, the advantage is firmly in the Brazilian's grasp.

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Belal Muhammad vs. Gilbert Burns: Intangibles

There is more going into Belal Muhammad vs. Gilbert Burns than the technical aspects separating the two men. Gilbert Burns has been active this year and recently defeated Jorge Masvidal at UFC 287, which took place just a month ago. He is in fight shape and his timing and kinetic chaining are all primed for fighting.

The same can't be said about Belal Muhammad. The Palestinian-American is yet to fight in 2023. More than that, however, he is coming off the couch with no long-term, dedicated gameplan designed to attack Gilbert Burns' weakness. Furthermore, he is coming off the heels of fasting during Ramadan.

According to Gilbert Burns, this led to 'Remember the Name' initially requesting for their bout to be contested in the middleweight division. This does not bode well for him and implies a difficult weight cut and lower fitness level that could negatively impact his strength and cardio.

With these things in mind, the Belal Muhammad vs. Gilbert Burns matchup seems to favor the Brazilian in every way.

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Belal Muhammad vs. Gilbert Burns: Prediction

Belal Muhammad vs. Gilbert Burns is a title eliminator that will decide who will emerge as the welterweight division's latest challenger for the divisional throne. The unfortunate truth of the matter is that the matchup is a difficult one for Belal Muhammad regardless of circumstance.

But the fact that he is coming off of a month of fasting cannot be ignored. This is the toughest test of his career and it did not come under ideal circumstances. If he wins, it will make his victory all the sweeter. But this is unlikely and it's reflected by the oddsmakers, who have Burns as the favorite.

With all of this in mind, the winner of the Belal Muhammad vs. Gilbert Burns matchup is clear. 'Durinho' should defeat 'Remember the Name' via late TKO.