Bellator 209: Pitbull vs. Sanchez - Picks and Predictions

This Thursday marks Bellator’s third trip to Tel Aviv, Israel, as the Scott Coker-headed promotion is set to put on Bellator 208: Pitbull vs. Sanchez. It’s a rare occasion that sees Bellator head to somewhere that the UFC hasn’t actually been before.

While the show isn’t one of Bellator’s ‘tentpole’ events, it does feature a Bellator Featherweight title fight between champion Patricio Freire and challenger Emmanuel Sanchez, and names like Phil Davis, Ryan Couture and Cindy Dandois pad out the card.

As always with a Bellator show, the prelim card isn’t much to talk about – with one big exception, but we’ll get to that later.

Here are the predicted outcomes for Bellator’s latest offering.

---

#1 Patricio Freire vs. Emmanuel Sanchez

Better known as one half of the ‘Pitbull Brothers’, Patricio Freire has been a staple inside the Bellator cage since 2010. With an overall record of 27-4 and a Bellator record of 13-4, the Brazilian striker can probably count himself as one of the best fighters to never set foot inside the UFC at this stage.

A two-time Bellator Featherweight champion, Freire bounced back from a loss at 155lbs to Benson Henderson to defeat Daniel Straus in 2017, reclaiming the Featherweight title he lost to Straus in 2015 in the process.

He now faces off with Sanchez, who has slowly climbed the Bellator ranks since he debuted there in 2014. The Duke Roufus-trained grappler has reeled off 4 straight wins since a split decision loss to Daniel Weichel, and his last fight saw him tap out UFC veteran Sam Sicilia with a unique standing arm triangle choke.

Sanchez is an excellent grappler – as the Sicilia win, as well as a submission over former champion Straus in the fight before proved, but he might well be in over his head against ‘Pitbull’. Freire is one of the most well-rounded and dangerous fighters to ever set foot inside the Bellator cage – of his 27 wins, 10 have come by knockout and 10 have come by submission.

Despite his current hot run, Sanchez was pressed hard by the likes of Justin Lawrence, Daniel Pineda and Georgi Karakhanyan. No offense to those fighters, but they’re simply not in the same league as ‘Pitbull’. Sanchez could pull off an early submission but it simply doesn’t seem likely against a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt the calibre of Freire.

Sanchez might push Freire early on but expect him to be overwhelmed in the later rounds.

The Pick: Freire via fourth round TKO

#2 Haim Gozali vs. Ryan Couture

Ryan Couture previously defeated Gozali via unanimous decision

On any other card this would be a strange choice for a co-main event; Gozali is 45 and has been fighting since 1998, Couture is a journeyman at best, and the two fought to a largely forgettable decision on Bellator’s first show in New York in June 2017.

Of course, Gozali is an Israeli-based fighter and is considered an MMA pioneer in the country similarly to how Elvis Sinosic or Ian Freeman would be viewed in Australia or the UK respectively, hence the card placement. Perhaps more intriguingly, ‘Batman’ has an 18-year old son who’s actually fighting on Thursday’s preliminary card. But how will he do against Couture?

In all honesty, the answer is probably not very well. Couture is a largely unremarkable – if solid – fighter with decent boxing and grappling games, but the son of UFC legend Randy lacks the natural (no pun intended) athleticism to get to the very top of the sport – hence a record of 11-6 that’s seen him lose to most of his better opponents.

That wasn’t much of a problem against Gozali the first time around, as the Israeli fighter – an accomplished Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt under Renzo Gracie with Abu Dhabi experience – simply couldn’t get a takedown on Couture and was comfortably outboxed across three rounds, including from the clinch.

Gozali will be the favourite with the Israeli fans but unless he can pull off a sudden knockout or submission early in the fight, Couture outworking him for another decision – or late stoppage – feels most likely.

The Pick: Couture via unanimous decision

#3 Phil Davis vs. Vadim Nemkov

Phil Davis has had an impressive run in Bellator

Okay, now we’re talking. A former title contender in the UFC, Davis made the jump to Bellator in 2015 and saw immediate success, easily defeating four opponents en route to claiming the promotion’s Light-Heavyweight title. A second loss to Ryan Bader saw him drop the title, but he’s since rebounded with two straight wins – including an impressive head kick knockout of Linton Vassell in May.

Nemkov meanwhile is another Russian fighter, although rather than being another entry from the Dagestani production line, he instead hails from a Sambo background and is a protégé of the legendary Fedor Emelianenko. The Russian rose to fame in 2015 by stopping UFC veteran Goran Reljic in RIZIN, but a pair of losses at Heavyweight in the Japanese promotion slowed down his hype train.

He’s since bounced back though and has made a red-hot start to his Bellator career, stopping tough Brazilian Philipe Lins and former champion Liam McGeary, both with strikes. The win over McGeary was particularly impressive, as he outworked the Brit in all areas and finished him off with a series of vicious leg kicks in the third round.

The issue for him in this fight, however, is Davis’ phenomenal wrestling game. A former NCAA Division I champion, Davis has essentially been able to ground anyone he’s faced outside of fellow top wrestlers Bader, Rashad Evans and Anthony Johnson. Can Nemkov’s sambo really prepare him for that?

More to the point, while Nemkov has shown excellent striking thus far, Davis is now a very different animal from the clunky striker he was in his UFC career – as his knockouts of Vassell and Francis Carmont have shown. Nemkov is an interesting prospect but this fight is coming likely too early in his career and it’s hard to see a way for him to avoid the powerful takedowns of ‘Mr Wonderful’.

The Pick: Davis via unanimous decision

#4 Cindy Dandois vs. Olga Rubin

Cindy Dandois washed out of the UFC after one fight

A Belgian fighter who’s been around for a long time – since 2009 – Dandois actually has one of the more impressive records at 145lbs, as she holds wins over big-name fighters like Marloes Coenen and Megan Anderson. However, she lasted just one fight inside the UFC – a terrible showing against Alexis Davis that saw her offer some woeful striking and also be largely outgrappled on the mat.

‘Battlecat’ has since bounced back impressively, winning four in a row, and this fight will mark her debut inside the Bellator cage. Opponent Rubin meanwhile is making her third Bellator appearance, although in contrast to Dandois’s extensive record, it’ll only be her fifth professional fight.

Rubin has never fought outside of her native Israel, but she does at least hold three TKO wins due to punches on her record. Footage on her is sparse, but the fact that Dandois looked so inept on the feet in her UFC debut suggests she may have a puncher’s chance.

The smart pick here is Dandois simply due to her superior experience levels and strength of competition, but at 34 years old and almost 10 years into her MMA career, she’s probably reaching the end of her athletic prime. That gives Rubin a puncher’s chance, but I’m not willing to call it.

The Pick: Dandois via unanimous decision

#5 Adam Keresh vs. Kirill Sidelnikov

Kirill Sidelnikov was once known as 'Baby Fedor'

Longtime MMA fans may remember Sidelnikov for his brief run in the ill-fated Affliction promotion back in 2009. Known at that stage as ‘Baby Fedor’, Sidelnikov came in with a lot of hype but was subsequently jabbed to death by Paul Buentello, tested positive for the banned steroid stanozolol, and then pretty much vanished from the conscience of the MMA world.

He’s still only 30 though and has been competing steadily over the last decade, winning 6 and losing 2 since his Affliction run. It’s somewhat surprising to see him pop up here though as his last fight saw him lose to Sergey Pavlovich via TKO and that was almost a year ago.

Keresh meanwhile is an Israeli Heavyweight who made his debut in Bellator at their second Tel Aviv card a year ago. He won that fight via TKO, but it remains his only professional fight – and opponent Roman Kushnir was also making his MMA debut too.

Like Rubin in the previous fight, footage on Keresh is incredibly sparse, and at the beginning of his MMA career, it’s hard to imagine him toppling a veteran like ‘Baby Fedor’, even if the Russian’s hype train a decade ago was thoroughly undeserved. Keresh could turn out to be an incredible talent, but it just doesn’t seem likely.

The Pick: Sidelnikov via first round KO

#6 Preliminary Card

Khonry Gracie - the son of the legendary Royce - fights on the prelim card

As is usually the case with Bellator preliminary fights, Bellator.com will be streaming 12 matches before the main card begins, but practically all of them feature local talent making a start to their MMA careers.

This time we have one exception, though. Khonry Gracie – the son of the original UFC champion and MMA pioneer Royce Gracie – will be making his second appearance in the Bellator cage. His previous fight saw him defeated by the unheralded Devon Brock – who was also making his professional debut – and he’s faced with someone equally unnotable here in Israeli fighter Avi Baron.

The Gracie family has found success hard to come by in the modern era of MMA – family members Roger, Rolles and Ralek all saw difficulties inside the cage despite extensive backgrounds in submission grappling, as you’d expect, with Neiman Gracie being the lone exception.

Can Khonry follow in the footsteps of Neiman? Or will he struggle too? He didn’t look at all impressive against Brock, worryingly, but coming from the Israeli MMA scene Baron is likely a step below that level and that could allow Gracie to capitalise. It’s a reason to watch the prelims for this show, at least.