Bellator 225: Mitrione vs. Kharitonov 2 - Predictions and Picks

The world’s second-largest MMA promotion behind the juggernaut that is the UFC, Bellator MMA hasn’t really done a lot to pique the interest of the casual fan in 2019, but Scott Coker’s crew have been steadily chugging along anyway, and this weekend sees their 14th show of the year, live from Bridgeport, Connecticut, to be shown on the Paramount Network and the DAZN streaming service.

The card isn’t bad at all actually – the main event sees Matt Mitrione and Sergei Kharitonov run back their fight that initially took place in February – more on that in a moment – while former Bellator Heavyweight champ Vitaly Minakov and top prospect Tyrell Fortune mean the whole main card should be worth watching.

Here are the predicted outcomes for Bellator 225: Mitrione vs. Kharitonov 2.

#1 Matt Mitrione vs. Sergei Kharitonov

The first fight between these two ended in unfortunate fashion....

Usually I’m not a fan of instant rematches in MMA, but in this case, a rematch was probably the only option for Scott Coker. These two Heavyweights headlined Bellator 215 back in February, but the fight turned out to be one of the biggest anticlimaxes in the promotion’s history, as Matt Mitrione kicked Sergei Kharitonov in the groin after just 15 seconds, rendering the Russian incapable of continuing and resulting in the fight being declared a No Contest.

Assuming the same doesn’t happen this time – although there is a precedent for that in Bellator, just ask Thiago Silva and Eric Prindle – then how should we expect this one to go? For me, I think it’ll probably go better for Mitrione than it will for Kharitonov.

In their primes, of course, I’d have taken Kharitonov in a heartbeat. Back in his PRIDE days – particularly from 2004 to 2005 – the Russian was one of the best Heavyweights in the world, point-blank. His stirring run to the semi-finals of the 2004 PRIDE Grand Prix – where he was edged out by a prime Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira – was brilliant, and he also picked up wins over the likes of Fabricio Werdum and Pedro Rizzo.

That was 15 years ago, though. And while Kharitonov has proven he can still crack – he knocked out Roy Nelson last year and is on a 5-fight win streak (ignoring two No Contests) – his knockout loss to the unheralded Javy Ayala in his Bellator debut proved that his durability is definitely on the wane. It’s hardly a surprise given he turned 39 last week and has been fighting since 2000.

Mitrione, on the other hand, has never quite lived up to his supposed potential. A tremendous athlete, he’s surprisingly quick for a guy who stands at 6’3” and weighs around 255lbs, and while he’s not exactly svelte, he isn’t your classic sloppy Heavyweight. In fact, his kickboxing skills are pretty great – he can fling combinations and kicks out with ease thanks to his sheer explosiveness, and that skill-set has led him to 11 wins via KO or TKO.

Sure, his ground game still largely stinks – literally every time he’s been on the ground from what I can recall he’s struggled, examples being his submission losses to Ben Rothwell and Brendan Schaub as well as his one-sided loss to Ryan Bader – but as Kharitonov has never been a man to grapple, he should be okay in this fight from that standpoint.

If both of these men were in their primes I think Kharitonov’s slick boxing skills would’ve gotten the job done – for all his speed and explosiveness, Mitrione remains hittable and doesn’t have a granite chin – but in 2019 with Kharitonov having a career’s worth of punishment behind him? I just can’t see him surviving a big shot from Mitrione, who will likely pick up another surprisingly big-name victory.

The Pick: Mitrione via first-round KO

#2 Vitaly Minakov vs. Javy Ayala

Vitaly Minakov is looking to get back into Bellator's title picture at Heavyweight

What a difference a year makes. This time in 2018 Vitaly Minakov was widely recognized as the best Heavyweight outside of the UFC, as he’d put together a 21-0 record and had won 5 fights in Bellator from 2012 to 2014 to capture their Heavyweight title. Contract disputes forced him elsewhere, and a run in the Fight Nights Global promotion seemed to be a precursor for a UFC run, but instead, the big Russian mended fences with Bellator and signed to return there earlier this year.

And well, it hardly went as he would’ve liked. Matched with Cheick Kongo – who he defeated back in 2014 – Minakov put on a stinker of a performance and ended up losing a unanimous decision. In all honesty the fight should probably have been scored for Minakov, who I felt clearly did enough to win at least two rounds, but regardless, it wasn’t a performance worthy of the hype around him.

The most likely explanation? Ring rust. Minakov hadn’t fought since December 2017 before the fight, a layoff as long as any he’d had in his career. Six months later, he will probably be much more ready for action – and a big win here will probably give him a title shot against the winner of the upcoming Kongo/Ryan Bader title fight in September.

Thankfully for him, this fight seems infinitely winnable. Javy Ayala has some big wins on his ledger, most notably over Sergei Kharitonov and Frank Mir, but realistically, he isn’t a top-level Heavyweight contender. Mir and Kharitonov were miles past their prime when Ayala fought them, and I’d argue that his performances against Roy Nelson and Cheick Kongo are more of a barometer as to how he’ll fend against Minakov.

Against Nelson, ‘Eye Candy’ had some early success but was eventually stifled by the ground game of ‘Big Country’, while Kongo picked up a rare knockout win simply by being a more accurate striker, catching Ayala with a clean right hand counter to put him away.

Given Minakov has an extremely powerful ground game with a full arsenal of submissions and ground strikes thanks to his excellent Sambo background, as well as heavy, crisp striking on the feet, I’d say this should be his fight to lose. Ayala clearly hits hard and at Heavyweight that means he’s got a puncher’s chance, but if Minakov comes in looking more ready than he did against Kongo, it’s hard to see him losing really.

The Pick: Minakov via first-round TKO

#3 Alejandra Lara vs. Taylor Turner

Taylor Turner defeated Heather Hardy in her last fight

An odd choice for a main card fight, this Women’s Strawweight bout likely isn’t going to decide the next contender for Ilima-Lei Macfarlane’s title given Taylor Turner is just 3-5 in MMA while Alejandra Lara has lost two of her previous three Bellator fights – including a 2018 loss to Macfarlane – but stranger things have happened, I guess.

So why’s it ended up in the spotlight? Probably because of Turner’s last fight – she shellacked vaunted boxer Heather Hardy, taking her down and destroying her with punches from the mount for a first-round TKO. But then Hardy never seemed to take her MMA career seriously, so who knows what a win over her really means?

Outside of said Hardy fight, most of the footage on Turner shows her losing. She seems to have a decent ground game, but even then she has 3 submission losses to her game, and she was also knocked out cleanly by Janice Meyer in 2016.

Lara meanwhile appears to be more of a grappler than a striker, and judging by what I’ve seen of her, I’d give her an advantage if this fight hits the ground. Given Turner seems more ground-oriented, that’s the likely conclusion, meaning I’m leaning more towards Lara to win this one. In all honesty though, Women’s Flyweight is such a thin, chaotic division that anything could happen.

The Pick: Lara via unanimous decision

#4 Tyrell Fortune vs. Rudy Schaffroth

Tyrell Fortune is one of Bellator's top prospects

Signed alongside fellow standout collegiate wrestler Ed Ruth back in 2016, Tyrell Fortune’s Bellator career has gone from promising to largely frustrating. He’s 6-0 in the Bellator cage and has managed to put away four of his opponents by KO or TKO, so why the frustration? Well, while Ruth has slowly climbed the ranks and has fought solid opponents like Neiman Gracie and Kiichi Kunimoto, Fortune has still faced nothing but tomato cans or journeymen.

Schaffroth might be more than a tomato can or a journeyman – at 6-0 he’s more of a prospect than either of those things – but he still doesn’t necessarily represent a huge step up for a guy who’s clearly one of the best athletes in the division. Simply put, this kind of booking would just never happen in the UFC.

Interestingly, Schaffroth and Fortune have some history; Fortune beat Schaffroth in an amateur wrestling bout during their collegiate days. Schaffroth has since developed into a bit of a knockout artist – 5 of his 6 wins have come by KO or TKO and his other one was an arm triangle that followed a nasty knockdown – but despite this he doesn’t look like a particularly technical striker, preferring to use his brute force punches more than anything more subtle.

Fortune meanwhile simply looks better in all areas; we know there aren’t going to be many Heavyweights capable of outwrestling him – Schaffroth definitely isn’t one of them – but he’s also incredibly quick for a big man, looks like he’s picked up the striking game well, and is a far superior athlete.

This is Heavyweight MMA and Schaffroth hits hard enough to knock anyone out, but a puncher’s chance is all that I’m willing to give him here. I think Fortune takes him out impressively – and hopefully moves on to a higher level opponent next time out.

The Pick: Fortune via second round TKO

#5 David Rickels vs. Yaroslav Amosov

David Rickels is one of Bellator's longtime veterans

This might actually be the best fight on this card, when all is considered. Rickels is a real Bellator veteran – he’s been around in the promotion since the Bjorn Rebney era, and this will be his 23rd fight under their banner. More to the point, his only losses have come to real top fighters like Michael Chandler, Patricky Freire and Michael Page. And with his recognizable ‘Caveman’ gimmick, he might well be Bellator’s top gatekeeper.

Amosov meanwhile signed with Scott Coker’s promotion in 2018 after putting together an extensive 19-0 record on the Russian circuit. The Ukrainian fighter has since picked up a pair of pretty big wins in Bellator, beating UFC veterans Gerald Harris and Erick Silva.

‘Dynamo’ came into Bellator with a reputation for serious violence; of his 19 wins, only 2 had gone the distance, but that hasn’t really been the case since he arrived in Coker’s promotion. His win over Silva came primarily from his wrestling skill – essentially he just held the Brazilian down for three rounds – which could suggest he’s not quite as brilliant as his record makes him out to be.

This fight should tell us a hell of a lot about where Amosov stands in the grand scheme of things, then. Rickels can wrestle, he can strike, and while he’s not the best in any single area, he’s hard-nosed enough to give anyone difficulties.

With that said, ‘The Caveman’ is definitely a more natural 155lbs, and against a large 170lber like Amosov, I do wonder whether he can keep the Ukrainian from recycling the Silva fight – a lot of clinching and takedowns – while also getting off on his own offense.

I like Amosov to pull off another stifling decision here, but to see Rickels outwork him and take a decision wouldn’t be a shock either as I’d argue that at this stage, he’s definitely the toughest opponent that ‘Dynamo’ has faced.

The Pick: Amosov via unanimous decision

#6 The Prelims

Renowned veteran Nick Newell makes his Bellator debuts on the prelims

As always with Bellator the prelims are a massively mixed bag of sheer randomness. The nature of them – the way they use a lot of local or unknown fighters – means it’s largely fruitless attempting to preview each fight, so instead, here are the notable names on the card who are perhaps worth watching.

Nick Newell – unfortunately more famed for a congenital amputation of his left arm than a serious record of 15-2 – makes his Bellator debut, facing Corey Browning, who recently put an end to the hype train of Geordie Shore star Aaron Chalmers. The lack of experience for Browning means Newell should have enough to win his debut, though.

Austin Vanderford – the husband of the UFC’s Paige VanZant – is returning here for his second Bellator outing against the unbeaten – but largely unheralded – Joseph Creer. A win for Vanderford here should see Bellator push him as a potential star, and it feels like Scott Coker and Rich Chou wouldn’t book him to lose, so I figure he’ll likely win by submission.

Khonry Gracie – the son of the legendary Royce Gracie – makes his third Bellator appearance against Oscar Vera, who’s 0-1 in MMA. This seems like a layup for Gracie, although given he’s only 1-1 and didn’t look great in his own Bellator debut, it could easily go wrong for him.

Finally UFC veteran Heavyweights Tim Johnson and Zu Anyanwu face off, but realistically neither man is traditionally a lot of fun to watch so this might be a fight worth forgetting about. Johnson’s grappling skill and clinch work will probably be enough to earn him a decision.