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This upcoming weekend is a busy one for Bellator MMA, as they have two shows taking place; one in Dublin, Ireland on Friday and one on Saturday from Los Angeles, California.
Of the two, the second – Bellator 228 – is by far the more marquee of the two, with a huge five-fight main card – four of which are part of Bellator’s Featherweight Grand Prix – that sounds as strong as any put together by Scott Coker’s promotion in 2019.
Here are the predicted outcomes for Bellator 228: Pitbull vs. Archuleta.
#1 Patricio Freire vs. Juan Archuleta
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In a curious move, not only is Patricio Freire’s Bellator Featherweight title on the line in this fight, but the clash is also part of Bellator’s Featherweight Grand Prix; essentially, unlike the old PRIDE or DREAM tournaments, Scott Coker is hoping that the winner of the Grand Prix will also end up with the promotion’s title, which it must be said makes a ton of sense.
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Has Archuleta earned a title shot at the man known as ‘Pitbull’? For sure. Last time we saw ‘The Spaniard’ in action, he uncorked a ludicrously heavy right hand to knock out former Bellator champ Eduardo Dantas in a moment most fans rated as one of the best KOs of 2019. The Joe Stevenson student is 23-1 in professional MMA and hasn’t lost since 2015. He’s also 5-0 in the Bellator cage.
In terms of his fighting style, he’s extremely well-rounded, but the main thing that stands out is his aggression. He’s a solid wrestler but clearly prefers to attempt high-octane slams and the like, and on the feet he’s flashy and creative, and throws everything with heavy power. He might not be the biggest name at 145lbs, but he’s definitely a danger in all areas.
Will that be enough to take him past ‘Pitbull’, though? For as good as Archuleta is, I’m leaning towards no. There’s a pretty clear-cut argument to make for Freire being the best Featherweight outside of the confines of the UFC right now. He’s 29-4 in MMA overall, and he’s essentially beaten everyone there’s been to beat in Bellator’s 145lbs division over the past few years.
Freire has beaten Emmanuel Sanchez, Daniel Straus, Pat Curran, Henry Corrales....oh, and he’s also the current Bellator Lightweight champion too, after he took out Michael Chandler with a vicious knockout back in May.
For me, Archuleta is an excellent fighter who’s probably outgunned in all areas here; he hits hard, but ‘Pitbull’ is a phenomenal striker with massive power, and if the fight goes to the ground the Brazilian is also a very credentialed BJJ black belt. Archuleta seems tough enough to last the distance, I think, but I’d be very surprised if he’s the one to dethrone ‘Pitbull’.
The Pick: Freire via unanimous decision
#2 Lyoto Machida vs. Gegard Mousasi
I have to admit, it still feels weird that both of these men are now part of the Bellator roster rather than the UFC’s, even if Lyoto Machida had probably reached the end of the road there anyway. At any rate, this is a rematch of their 2014 UFC main event, a fight that saw Machida largely pick Gegard Mousasi apart for a unanimous decision victory.
Has enough changed for me to suspect this fight could go differently? I’d have to say yes. 2014 was only five years ago, but in MMA five years can feel like a lifetime, and that’s definitely the case when it comes to Machida. Back then ‘The Dragon’ had just dropped to 185lbs for the first time, and his dissection of Mousasi put him in line for a shot at then-UFC champion Chris Weidman.
Machida failed in his attempt to gain UFC gold for a second time, but it wasn’t a bad showing per se and he quickly bounced back a few months later. It was 2015 where Machida really seemed to hit a wall; he was dominated by Luke Rockhold and Yoel Romero before being controversially suspended for PED use. When he returned, in a bad KO loss to Derek Brunson, it felt like the tools that’d served him so well across his career had really begun to wane.
Sure, Lyoto has since beaten Eryk Anders, Vitor Belfort, Rafael Carvalho and Chael Sonnen, but essentially, each of those fighters had massive holes in their game that Machida was able to exploit. For the most part, at the age of 41 the issue that ‘The Dragon’ has is that the speed and reflexes which served him so well in his prime are largely faded now.
Machida’s chin was never the best, but his timing and speed always allowed him to avoid big strikes. That isn’t the case so much at this stage, as he found out against Brunson and even against Anders, who had him in trouble on numerous occasions despite being miles behind from a technical standpoint.
Mousasi, on the other hand, is largely still the fighter who could both thrill and frustrate in PRIDE, DREAM, StrikeForce and the UFC. Since 2015’s shock loss to Uriah Hall he’s lost just once – a somewhat controversial decision defeat to Rafael Lovato earlier this year – but even that loss was very telling of Mousasi’s style.
He’s incredibly skilled in all areas – save for his takedown defense, which has always been somewhat questionable – but sometimes it feels like he’s too laid back for his own good.
Thankfully for him, Machida isn’t likely to spam takedowns at him and look to control him on the ground. And while the Brazilian comfortably outpointed him on the feet in 2014, I don’t think he’s capable of a similar performance here as while his speed and reflexes have waned, Mousasi still appears to be in the prime of his athletic career, albeit just about.
I’d be slightly concerned about Machida sucking Mousasi into a slow-paced striking match that resembles a staring contest here, and if that happens then the winner is anyone’s guess. But I’m hedging my bets that Mousasi will land something big on ‘The Dragon’ and put him away to avenge his earlier loss.
The Pick: Mousasi via first round KO
#3 AJ McKee vs. Georgi Karakhanyan
This fight is another entry in the Bellator Featherweight Grand Prix, and it should be an interesting one as AJ McKee was highlighted as one of the Bellator announcers’ ‘dark horse’ picks to take the entire tournament. He’s definitely a fascinating prospect. The son of former UFC fighter Antonio McKee, ‘The Mercenary’ is currently 14-0, with all of his fights coming under the Bellator banner.
Interestingly, he’s almost been treated like a boxing prospect – starting with weaker opposition from his debut (when he was just 20 years old) leading up to him facing genuine contenders such as John Macapa, Justin Lawrence and most notably Pat Curran. And unlike his father, McKee appears to be a well-rounded fighter; unsurprisingly, he can wrestle well, but he’s also aggressive and hunts for finishes both standing and on the ground.
Karakhanyan is playing the grizzled veteran in this fight – he’s 34 and debuted way back in 2006 – but he should know exactly how McKee feels in the role of hot prospect. It doesn’t seem that long ago that the Russian was considered one of the youngsters to watch at 145lb, but unfortunately he’s never truly lived up to the early hype.
Sure, he’s picked up some big wins along the way – two victories over Bubba Jenkins and a famed submission of the highly-rated Lance Palmer back in 2013 – but mostly he’s lost to the better opposition he’s faced, although it’s notable that he rarely gets finished.
Basically this should come down to McKee’s elite credentials; if he’s as good as his previous performances have suggested, then he ought to win this one. McKee’s not short on confidence and he’d do well to avoid getting sloppy or overconfident, but to be fair nothing he’s shown previously suggests he’s that kind of fighter anyway.
Karakhanyan will have a chance if he’s super-aggressive with his grappling, but in the end I think McKee is the better – and more importantly, fresher and hungrier – fighter on the feet, and he should have enough grappling skill to avoid getting into big trouble until he wins a decision.
The Pick: McKee via unanimous decision
#4 Darrion Caldwell vs. Henry Corrales
It came as a massive surprise during the Bellator 226 broadcast when Josh Thomson suggested that Saul Rogers might be the best wrestler entered into the Bellator Featherweight Grand Prix – evidently he forgot about the existence of Darrion Caldwell for a second. For those who don’t know, ‘The Wolf’ was a 2009 NCAA Division I wrestling champion, essentially making him one of the most credentialed wrestlers in the sport.
Caldwell’s MMA career thus far hasn’t been quite as successful, but he’s still done pretty well for himself. Debuting back in 2012, Caldwell beat everyone he faced using his grappling in his formative years – including a submission of fellow famed wrestler Joe Warren – only to fall prey to a shocking guillotine choke at the hands of the unheralded Joe Taimanglo.
That took some of the bloom off his rose, but Caldwell quickly rebounded, outpointed Taimanglo in a rematch and then captured the Bellator Bantamweight title from Eduardo Dantas soon after. A pair of losses to former UFC contender Kyoji Horiguchi have put paid to the idea of him as the best lighter weight fighter outside the UFC, but he’ll still be dangerous in this tournament.
Corrales is an interesting test for him in his first fight up at 145lbs in over a year; a rough and ready brawler, ‘OK’ (as in ‘OK Corral’, get it?) was last seen taking out super-prospect Aaron Pico, who may well be considered a busted flush at this point after a subsequent loss and his lack of inclusion into this tournament.
Overall, Corrales hits hard, he’s aggressive and he’s largely well-rounded. The problem for him here, though, is that he’s a jack-of-all-trades – and not the most technical one – up against a specialist in arguably the key area for success in MMA.
I’d be more worried for Caldwell if he’d never fought at 145lbs before, but he knocked out Noad Lahat there a year ago and it’s not like he was small for 135lbs. Essentially, I just can’t imagine Corrales fending off the takedown and staying off his back to do enough damage to take out Caldwell standing. This could become interesting if Corrales can stop a couple of early takedowns, but personally I don’t see that happening.
The Pick: Caldwell via unanimous decision
#5 Daniel Weichel vs. Saul Rogers
If we lived in a fairer world, the Manchester-based Saul Rogers would probably be a well-known UFC star by this point. ‘The Hangman’ was part of 2015’s TUF 22 as a member of Conor McGregor’s Team Europe, but after defeating four tough opponents – including eventual winner Ryan Hall – to qualify for the finals, Rogers was removed by the UFC after it was discovered that he’d apparently lied on his Visa application.
From all reports, Rogers had a criminal conviction on his record, causing the Visa issues which have apparently since been cleaned up. Regardless, despite being on a long winning streak taking into account his TUF victories, ‘The Hangman’ was ignored by the UFC, and so he signed with Bellator in 2018 – strangely enough, shortly after his winning streak was broken in Russia’s ACB promotion.
The loss was just Rogers’ second career defeat, and he’s since bounced back by winning his Bellator debut. As his TUF run showed, the Brit is a gritty, skilled fighter whose biggest strength is his ability to put pressure on his opponent with forward motion and a penchant for pushing a hard pace. For a UK-based fighter his wrestling is also surprisingly strong, to the point that it’s been suggested he’s possibly the best wrestler in this tournament.
Opponent Weichel is a Bellator veteran dating back to 2014, and like ‘Pitbull’ Freire, he’s fought basically everyone with a semi-big name in the 145lbs division. Impressively, ‘Pitbull’ accounts for two of his three Bellator losses, with the other coming recently at the hands of Goiti Yamauchi. Consider that he took Freire to a split decision, and it’s more impressive still.
This, then, is a genuinely tough match for Rogers. Weichel will be the best opponent he’s ever faced, and with 22 submission wins to his name, only a fool would write off his grappling. With that said, Rogers’ top game is extremely strong; he’s not a massive threat with submissions but he’s able to keep his opponents grounded and do enough damage to both win the fight and stay out of trouble.
I think I like Rogers here; I was very impressed by him during his TUF stint and I think he’s closer to his prime than his German opponent. If he can replicate a similar strategy that took him past Ryan Hall – avoid the takedown, mix in his own and also outpoint his opponent on the feet – then this should be a winnable fight for him.
The Pick: Rogers via unanimous decision
