Bellator 228: Pitbull vs. Archuleta - Predictions and Picks

#2 Lyoto Machida vs. Gegard Mousasi

Lyoto Machida and Gegard Mousasi first faced off in the UFC five years ago

I have to admit, it still feels weird that both of these men are now part of the Bellator roster rather than the UFC’s, even if Lyoto Machida had probably reached the end of the road there anyway. At any rate, this is a rematch of their 2014 UFC main event, a fight that saw Machida largely pick Gegard Mousasi apart for a unanimous decision victory.

Has enough changed for me to suspect this fight could go differently? I’d have to say yes. 2014 was only five years ago, but in MMA five years can feel like a lifetime, and that’s definitely the case when it comes to Machida. Back then ‘The Dragon’ had just dropped to 185lbs for the first time, and his dissection of Mousasi put him in line for a shot at then-UFC champion Chris Weidman.

Machida failed in his attempt to gain UFC gold for a second time, but it wasn’t a bad showing per se and he quickly bounced back a few months later. It was 2015 where Machida really seemed to hit a wall; he was dominated by Luke Rockhold and Yoel Romero before being controversially suspended for PED use. When he returned, in a bad KO loss to Derek Brunson, it felt like the tools that’d served him so well across his career had really begun to wane.

Sure, Lyoto has since beaten Eryk Anders, Vitor Belfort, Rafael Carvalho and Chael Sonnen, but essentially, each of those fighters had massive holes in their game that Machida was able to exploit. For the most part, at the age of 41 the issue that ‘The Dragon’ has is that the speed and reflexes which served him so well in his prime are largely faded now.

Machida’s chin was never the best, but his timing and speed always allowed him to avoid big strikes. That isn’t the case so much at this stage, as he found out against Brunson and even against Anders, who had him in trouble on numerous occasions despite being miles behind from a technical standpoint.

Mousasi, on the other hand, is largely still the fighter who could both thrill and frustrate in PRIDE, DREAM, StrikeForce and the UFC. Since 2015’s shock loss to Uriah Hall he’s lost just once – a somewhat controversial decision defeat to Rafael Lovato earlier this year – but even that loss was very telling of Mousasi’s style.

He’s incredibly skilled in all areas – save for his takedown defense, which has always been somewhat questionable – but sometimes it feels like he’s too laid back for his own good.

Thankfully for him, Machida isn’t likely to spam takedowns at him and look to control him on the ground. And while the Brazilian comfortably outpointed him on the feet in 2014, I don’t think he’s capable of a similar performance here as while his speed and reflexes have waned, Mousasi still appears to be in the prime of his athletic career, albeit just about.

I’d be slightly concerned about Machida sucking Mousasi into a slow-paced striking match that resembles a staring contest here, and if that happens then the winner is anyone’s guess. But I’m hedging my bets that Mousasi will land something big on ‘The Dragon’ and put him away to avenge his earlier loss.

The Pick: Mousasi via first round KO