Bellator 228: Pitbull vs. Archuleta - Predictions and Picks

#5 Daniel Weichel vs. Saul Rogers

Saul Rogers had a successful run on The Ultimate Fighter in 2015

If we lived in a fairer world, the Manchester-based Saul Rogers would probably be a well-known UFC star by this point. ‘The Hangman’ was part of 2015’s TUF 22 as a member of Conor McGregor’s Team Europe, but after defeating four tough opponents – including eventual winner Ryan Hall – to qualify for the finals, Rogers was removed by the UFC after it was discovered that he’d apparently lied on his Visa application.

From all reports, Rogers had a criminal conviction on his record, causing the Visa issues which have apparently since been cleaned up. Regardless, despite being on a long winning streak taking into account his TUF victories, ‘The Hangman’ was ignored by the UFC, and so he signed with Bellator in 2018 – strangely enough, shortly after his winning streak was broken in Russia’s ACB promotion.

"I treat every fight like a championship fight."The technique of @DanielWeichel is dangerous and beautiful.Watch Episode Five of our Countdown to The #FeatherweightWGP on YouTube now!▶️ https://t.co/ltfObnLIsp pic.twitter.com/bx1pz2XRSx

— Bellator MMA (@BellatorMMA) September 25, 2019

The loss was just Rogers’ second career defeat, and he’s since bounced back by winning his Bellator debut. As his TUF run showed, the Brit is a gritty, skilled fighter whose biggest strength is his ability to put pressure on his opponent with forward motion and a penchant for pushing a hard pace. For a UK-based fighter his wrestling is also surprisingly strong, to the point that it’s been suggested he’s possibly the best wrestler in this tournament.

Opponent Weichel is a Bellator veteran dating back to 2014, and like ‘Pitbull’ Freire, he’s fought basically everyone with a semi-big name in the 145lbs division. Impressively, ‘Pitbull’ accounts for two of his three Bellator losses, with the other coming recently at the hands of Goiti Yamauchi. Consider that he took Freire to a split decision, and it’s more impressive still.

This, then, is a genuinely tough match for Rogers. Weichel will be the best opponent he’s ever faced, and with 22 submission wins to his name, only a fool would write off his grappling. With that said, Rogers’ top game is extremely strong; he’s not a massive threat with submissions but he’s able to keep his opponents grounded and do enough damage to both win the fight and stay out of trouble.

I think I like Rogers here; I was very impressed by him during his TUF stint and I think he’s closer to his prime than his German opponent. If he can replicate a similar strategy that took him past Ryan Hall – avoid the takedown, mix in his own and also outpoint his opponent on the feet – then this should be a winnable fight for him.

The Pick: Rogers via unanimous decision