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Ian Machado Garry is gearing up to face streaking knockout artist Carlos Prates in the main event of UFC Kansas City on April 26 this Saturday. The bout is an opportunity for the Irishman, who is stepping in on short-notice to save the card against a very dangerous opponent, who has knocked out his last 10 foes.
If he wins, he could put himself in title contention conversation, despite the fact that Prates is only ranked #13, while Garry himself is ranked #7. The UFC, though, has shown that it's willing to suspend rankings and merit-based matchmaking for a fighter who is a big enough star.
The question, though, is whether Garry can actually make good on such an opportunity and become a UFC champion, either at welterweight or even middleweight. So, can he?
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Analyzing Ian Machado Garry's UFC championship prospects
As far as middleweight is concerned, Ian Machado Garry is simply too small. He'll be at a distinct disadvantage in terms of physicality against much larger and stronger foes like Dricus du Plessis and Khamzat Chimaev, so his chances of becoming a champion at 185 pounds are nonexistent.
But what of the welterweight division? The Irishman is a fast and well-rounded fighter who is able to dip into his bag of tricks to win fights out of cleverness. It's not always flashy or entertaining, but he knows how to win. Upon realizing that he was no match for Michael 'Venom' Page on the feet, he wrestled him.
Check out Ian Machado Garry's grappling against Michael 'Venom' Page:
When faced with the crushing knockout power of Geoff Neal, 'The Future' authored an evasive performance, where he skirted around the outside, striking from a distance and never engaging Neal in long exchanges. Unfortunately, neither Page nor Neal are championship caliber fighters.
The only championship-caliber fighter Garry has faced is undefeated welterweight title contender Shavkat Rakhmonov. While their scrap was more competitive than expected, and Garry survived to become the first fighter to ever make it to a decision against 'The Nomad,' it was still a loss, and Rakhmonov was injured.
He found himself unable to fend off Rakhmonov's clinch work and control against the fence. His takedown defense held up, but he struggled to disengage. Garry also lacks finishing instincts due to his obsession with 'clean' performances. He has decent power and is fast, but is hesitant to pull the trigger.
This was the case against Neil Magny, who had rendered him one-legged with low kicks, but still refused to pursue the finish, despite Magny's reputation for being pillow-fisted. So, how would he fare against Belal Muhammad, the welterweight king? It's likely he loses.
Muhammad is a competent striker and a high-level wrestler with suffocating pressure and excellent top control. He has very little punching power and even worse finishing instincts, but he is physically strong, tireless, and relentless. Garry would find himself pressured to the fence and wrestled for 25 minutes.
He hasn't proven anything besides his ability to fight competitively with a compromised Rakhmonov, and needs a signature win over a high-level foe. For now, he is no champion, just another top five-caliber fighter.
