Could Dustin Poirier finally become BMF champion? Breaking down the Louisiana native's path to victory against Max Holloway at UFC 318

A proper world title has always eluded Dustin Poirier. He's been a perennial second-place finisher throughout his career, despite being one of the greatest lightweights of all time. He has thrice failed to win the undisputed UFC lightweight title.

Poirier also took a swing at the BMF title against Justin Gaethje at UFC 291. Despite, Gaethje being a foe he once TKO'd, he still came up short, getting knocked out in round one. All of these pivotal defeats have led to him being classified as a fighter with a mental block when the lights shine brightest.

He just can't seem to win the big one, even against opponents he's proven he can beat. To capture the BMF title, which best fits him as an all-time great action fighter with no boring fights on his résumé, in his retirement fight would be poetic. But, can he actually do it?

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Dustin Poirier vs. Max Holloway: An analysis

Dustin Poirier and Max Holloway are both strikers by trade, and they favor boxing above all else. Curiously, their first encounter at UFC 143 occurred over a decade ago at featherweight, when both men were nowhere near their respective final forms, and ended via submission, with a triangle armbar in Poirier's favor.

Years later, they clashed at UFC 236 for the interim lightweight title in a brutal kickboxing affair, which 'The Diamond' also won, this time via unanimous decision. That bout, though, was far more competitive than the first, and Poirier only won it by dealing more damage as the heavier puncher.

So, what of UFC 318? As a striker, Poirier is the perfect counter to pressure. Most fighters loathe having their back against the fence. Poirier, however, thrives there. He meets his opponent's offense by using the Philly Shell and shoulder-rolling, using his shoulders, elbows, and the top of his head to deflect incoming punches.

Check out Dustin Poirier's Philly Shell:

While doing so, he slips counters through the gaps between his opponent's punches. When on the front foot, 'The Diamond' favors a shifting combination. From his southpaw stance, he throws a left straight to mask his shifting stance as he steps through to land a thunderous right cross, landing him in orthodox.

The 36-year-old also varies this setup. Against the great Khabib Nurmagomedov at UFC 242, Poirier flicked out a southpaw jab instead, before stepping through to shift his stance to orthodox while faking a left-handed jab, drawing out his foe's check left hook seconds before landing a massive right cross.

This shifting combination allows Poirier to cover a lot of distance very quickly, enabling him to land shots that his opponent doesn't see coming. It does, though, leave him open to counters down the middle, especially from fellow southpaws and stance-switchers as he dips his head right, almost leading with his chin.

Check out Dustin Poirier's shifting combo:

Fortunately, Poirier is well aware of this danger, and demonstrated the perfect answer to it when facing a foe that seemed tailor-made to punish his shifting combos: Conor McGregor. At UFC 257, 'The Diamond' foresaw the straight left hand counter McGregor would attempt to snipe him mid-shift.

So, Poirier faked the shift and immediately ducked under the Irishman's left hand, getting in on his hips with a slick double-leg takedown. Thereafter, McGregor didn't know whether the shift meant a takedown or a right hand, and this uncertainty allowed Poirier to land freely.

He's also an apt calf kicker who uses it to punish anyone who stands heavy on their lead leg or extends their stance when stepping in with a jab. In short, he has all the tools to beat Holloway, who is a pressure boxer whose lead leg is always exposed whenever he jabs.

Check out Dustin Poirier's calf kicks at UFC 257:

Without his jab, Holloway can't build his combinations and settle into his flow. He also runs the risk of getting countered by Poirier's Philly Shell. If Poirier can consistently interrupt Holloway's attempts to build combinations while countering him, he'll win.

He's proven it before by beating Holloway the second time. At UFC 318, he cannot afford to fail.