Henry Cejudo vs. Aljamain Sterling prediction and odds: Exploring the future of the UFC bantamweight belt

UFC 288's headline bout is Henry Cejudo vs. Aljamain Sterling, two mixed martial artists whose breadth of grappling skills stands head and shoulders above the rest of the bantamweight division. Despite their mutual wrestling backgrounds, 'Triple C' and 'Funk Master' could not be more different as fighters.

Furthermore, Cejudo is returning from a three-year hiatus that may or may not have a negative impact on his performance come Saturday night. While some fighters like Jon Jones and Dominick Cruz are capable of shrugging off the dreaded ring/cage-rust with ease, can Henry Cejudo do the same?

Meanwhile, Aljamain Sterling has spent the last three years defeating a new generation of bantamweights that 'Triple C' is yet to face. He has none of the drawbacks of a long absence, but the matchup remains difficult. So who will emerge victorious from the Henry Cejudo vs. Aljamain Sterling bout?

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Henry Cejudo vs. Aljamain Sterling: Wrestling & Grappling

Henry Cejudo vs. Aljamain Sterling will be decided by wrestling. Yet despite his credentials, 'Triple C' has never been an aggressive offensive wrestler. Instead, the Olympic gold medalist is an opportunistic takedown artist who relies on variety as opposed to a suffocating chain-wrestling game.

With a Shotokan Karate stance that has him bouncing in and out of range, Cejudo's distance management is primed for slick takedown entries. His foes never know whether a forward bounce will lead to a level change or a striking blitz.

This allows 'Triple C' to score takedowns when his foes least expect him to, whether they're inside trips or traditional single-leg takedowns. Even the great Demetrious Johnson fell prey to one of his sneaky trips.

Despite securing takedowns against other high-level wrestlers like Dominick Cruz, Henry Cejudo is ill-equipped to keep his opponents pinned on the mat. If he does succeed in controlling them on the canvas, he doesn't do much besides a few guard passes. He also has no submission wins on his record.

Aljamain Sterling is a completely different grappler. He is an extremely dangerous threat who has mastered the back-take. While he is not nearly as accomplished a wrestler as Cejudo is, 'Funk Master' is a trickier grappler all-around. His tall and rangy build renders him a highly effective clinch wrestler.

Due to his height, he can't level change as easily as other wrestlers due to his wider range of motion. This grants his opponents enough time to stuff his takedowns. Instead, Sterling often ducks under punches into bodylocks to take advantage of his length and leverage in the clinch.

Once he's in the clinch, his opponents—even Petr Yan in their rematch—often expose their backs because they briefly turn away to try and break his wrist-grip behind their waist. This allows Sterling to immediately secure back-trips and back-takes to set up his inescapable body-triangle.

Sterling has eight wins on the mat via submission, with nearly all of them being chokes. His long limbs are perfect for generating maximum leverage with his chokes. If his opponents escape, he simply initiates scrambles to reestablish a dominant body-triangle.

While Cejudo's short stature will make it difficult for 'Funk Master' to score conventional takedowns from level-changes, his superior leverage in the clinch, top-game and submission threat makes him a more dangerous grappler.

If a submission arises from the Henry Cejudo vs. Aljamain Sterling matchup, it will be 'Funk Master' claiming victory.

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Henry Cejudo vs. Aljamain Sterling: Striking

As is the case with their wrestling and grappling skills, Henry Cejudo and Aljamain Sterling are vastly different fighters when it comes to their striking. While 'Triple C' started off as the archetypical wrestler-boxer, a crushing loss to Demetrious Johnson in their first outing changed him for the better.

He demonstrated his transformation as a striker when he defeated Wilson Reis in dominant fashion. 'Triple C' is now a mobile karateka who uses a Shotokan Karate base to bounce back and forth, in and out of range. This allows him to benefit from his superior speed compared to other bantamweights.

Cejudo makes himself an elusive target, sliding out of the way and frustrating his opponents into taking increasingly risky decisions the more their punches miss him. Eventually, his foes lose their patience and lunge forward.

The moment his opponents do so, 'Triple C' bursts forward with a blitzing straight right. The mutual momentum of Cejudo darting forward and his foe's forward lunge are all the necessary ingredients for a brutal KO. He is also adept at making critical reads during his bouts.

Against Dominick Cruz, Henry Cejudo made the decorated 135'er pay for constantly dipping his head low at exaggerated angles by intercepting his head with a counter-knee. Against Marlon Moraes, he quickly understood that his Shotokan approach did not yield any results, so he reverted to his boxing.

He smothered the Brazilian's kicks with forward pressure and forced him into pocket exchanges that his foe's longer arms were ill-equipped for. This could be crucial to the kickboxing exchanges with Aljamain Sterling. 'Funk Master' is a serviceable striker.

He is a powerful and dynamic kicker who incorporates stance-switches and punches after missing kicks to counter foes who try to slide in on his kicking leg. Unfortunately, Sterling has a tendency to kick himself out of position against opponents who stand just an inch beyond his kicking range.

This renders Cejudo a dangerous matchup for him. His Shotokan stance is long by nature, meaning he can comfortably sit outside Sterling's kicking range. Furthermore, he can smother his foe's kicks by applying pressure and depriving Sterling of the space and time needed to throw kicks with any leverage and power.

Due to Cejudo's shorter arms, he's better-equipped for these mid-range striking bouts than the longer-armed Sterling, whose boxing skills are yet to catch up to his kicking ability. This could be a deciding factor in the Henry Cejudo vs. Aljamain Sterling clash.

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Henry Cejudo vs. Aljamain Sterling: Other Variables

There are intangibles to consider for Henry Cejudo vs. Aljamain Sterling. The defending titleholder has a tendency to spaz out and throw strikes at a much higher volume than his cardio is equipped for.

This led to him being massively exhausted during his first bout with Petr Yan. Unfortunately, he can't afford to be too passive against Henry Cejudo.

In his rematch with 'No Mercy', 'Funk Master' exercised greater patience. This was effective, in part due to Yan's low-volume approach in the first two rounds. This is not the case with Cejudo, who is active from the onset and can fight without tiring himself for five rounds. If Sterling spazes out, he'll exhaust himself.

If he remains too passive and patient in the striking exchanges, he runs the risk of dropping rounds. However, there's also the question of which version of Henry Cejudo will show up on Saturday? The former champion hasn't fought since 2020. Could ring/cage-rust rob him of the timing and range he'll need to strike?

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Henry Cejudo vs. Aljamain Sterling: Prediction

Henry Cejudo vs. Aljamain Sterling is a terrific stylistic clash, but there can only be one winner beside the fans. On Saturday, the two men will compete inside the octagon for divisional supremacy in the 135-pound weight class. The headline bout is a close, competitive one.

Various oddsmakers have this fight being close. But with the Olympian's long layoff, the Henry Cejudo vs. Aljamain Sterling prediction is Aljamain Sterling winning via split-decision.