Is Sean O'Malley destined for short title reign? Exploring the possibilities

Sean O'Malley is the reigning UFC bantamweight champion. He captured the title from all-time great 135-pounder Aljamain Sterling at UFC 292, knocking him off his feet with a counter-right before ending his night with a follow-up ground-and-pound. In victory, O'Malley gave the UFC their desired outcome.

He is regarded as a potential star with shades of Conor McGregor, his idol. They are not, however, identical. O'Malley is far more reserved and less comfortable with a live microphone than McGregor is, never leaving the air abuzz with electrifying charisma. And he certainly isn't the same caliber of pay-per-view draw.

But perhaps they are similar in one respect; their title reigns. McGregor never defended either of his two UFC championships. Could the same fate be in store for 'Sugar' in the bantamweight division? If so, he might find he is more like McGregor than many had anticipated, just not in the way he envisioned.

---

Sean O'Malley's strengths and weaknesses

The UFC bantamweight division is one of the deepest in the promotion, and many have parroted the conspiracy theory that upper management guided Sean O'Malley along a favorable path, enabling him to face easier matchups and fewer grapplers on his way to the title.

That, however, is a disservice to 'Sugar,' who is among one of the most skilled 135-pounders on the roster. He often uses the octagon as a showcase for his flashy, self-taught striking style, and it works, as O'Malley's height and length allow him to dictate the range at which his bouts take place.

First, he stands just beyond his opponent's reach, forcing them to either over-extend on their punches or kick ahead of themselves. Both scenarios leave his foe completely out of position, at which point O'Malley pounces with sniping counterpunches, as he is difficult to both punch and kick.

Check out Sean O'Malley vs. Aljamain Sterling:

So, despite what his loss to Marlon Vera seems to imply, he isn't exceedingly vulnerable to low kicks. In fact, 'Sugar' is an exceptional kicker himself, often using low kicks and front kicks, the latter of which he typically aims at his opponent's midsection, stabbing their gut with the ball of his foot.

Due to the snap behind his kicks, it forces his foes to drop their arms to either catch or parry them. Unfortunately for his opponents, this is usually when O'Malley raises his thigh to tease a low or front kick, only to whip his shin over the top for a head kick against an unsuspecting foe with their hands low.

He is also an apt stance-switcher, which was instrumental to his viral knockout of Eddie Wineland. 'Sugar,' in southpaw, threw a left kick to the body and a check right hook. After the threat of these strikes was burned into Wineland's mind, O'Malley switched to orthodox and threw a right-spinning heel kick.

The kick missed as Wineland ducked underneath it. Even so, Wineland failed to notice the difference in alignment caused by O'Malley's return to orthodox. 'Sugar' faked the uppercut, which he'd noticed had caused Wineland to drop his hands earlier in the fight. Naturally, Wineland took the bait, dropping his hands.

However, the uppercut never came, as O'Malley threw a right cross over the top to end the night. This is also to say nothing of 'Sugar's' deep bag of feints, as he feints with his hands, legs, and even head, causing his foes to overreact, even when he's not in range to land or eat a punch.

Check out Sean O'Malley vs. Eddie Wineland:

So, what of his wrestling then? O'Malley rarely shoots for takedowns, so his skills as an offensive wrestler are anyone's guess. Similarly, his defensive skills are hard to gauge due to distance management being his main defense against takedowns. He stands out of his foe's range, and his speed renders his kicks difficult to catch.

However, against opponents like Petr Yan, who managed to get in deep with takedowns, O'Malley's skills were noticeably subpar, as he wasn't cognizant of the need to widen his base or fight the grip. Furthermore, he also has a tendency to turn and expose his back to push off his hands and feet to stand.

This renders him highly vulnerable to being back-mounted and choked out. Additionally, O'Malley's gas tank is notoriously poor as he tires halfway through round two. Lastly, he appears to be somewhat brittle, especially in his lower body. An injury-prone champion would be counterintuitive to a long reign.

So what does this all mean for his tenure as champion?

---

Sean O'Malley vs. his stylistic nightmares

To strike with Sean O'Malley is a death wish for virtually every 135-pounder. 'Sugar' is too powerful, too fast, and too skilled. Even Petr Yan, who is styled as the best boxer in the UFC, was forced to resort to takedowns in a desperate bid for victory when the two faced off at UFC 280.

So, other avenues are required for victory against O'Malley. Specifically, strong wrestlers with bottomless gas tanks. Aljamain Sterling is a phenomenal grappler, but his opportunistic takedowns meant he lacked the initiative to create openings for him to take the fight to the mat. Instead, he waited for an O'Malley mistake.

Furthermore, 'Funk Master' did not possess the kind of cardio that would have paid dividends in the later rounds against O'Malley, had Sterling even made it that far. So what of the rest? There are three fighters at bantamweight that could truly trouble O'Malley in a five-round fight.

Despite his loss to Marlon Vera, a five-round fight actually favors 'Sugar.' The hard-hitting Ecuadorian, while seemingly impossible to knock out, spends long stretches of every fight doing little else besides making reads. He is a low-volume power puncher, always searching for the perfect opening.

He doesn't do enough to push the pace to sap O'Malley's gas tank, nor does he do enough to reliably win rounds, as he is content to sit back and lose the points battle. So, fans of 'Chito' may be disappointed to learn that he is not among the three nightmare-style matchups for O'Malley.

Neither is Henry Cejudo, whose Olympic-level wrestling is limited by his nonexistent top control and lack of submission threat. He can score takedowns but doesn't control the wrists or triangle his opponent's legs to establish top control. Instead, 'Sugar's' nightmare matchup begins with Cory Sandhagen.

Sandhagen is long and tall enough to match O'Malley in the range battle. Furthermore, he is an active feinter with slick footwork and stance-switching, much like the champion. He is also known to use rangy strikes like jabs and kicks without over-extending on either of them. In short, he would be difficult to counter.

In Sandhagen, O'Malley won't find an opponent whom he can easily trick into lunging into his counters. Additionally, 'The Sandman' is a skilled wrestler with long enough arms to hook his hands behind O'Malley's legs, even if the latter widens his base to defend against double legs.

This was how Alexander Gustafsson, an inferior wrestler, took down the more credentialed Jon Jones. Elsewhere, there is Merab Dvalishvili, whose limitless cardio and strong wrestling game could completely suffocate O'Malley, who would sooner wane and begin losing the scrambles than anything.

He simply lacks the conditioning and wrestling skills to stop a tireless wrestler capable of shooting a record-breaking number of takedowns. Lastly, there is Umar Nurmagomedov, a talented kicker with the feared Dagestani school of wrestling as his greatest weapon.

Not only would O'Malley be vastly out-skilled in the wrestling department, but his tendency to turn his back to defend takedowns would be disastrous against Nurmagomedov, who would undoubtedly back-mount and choke him out if such an opportunity presented itself.

Given O'Malley's poor cardio and wrestling deficiencies, it is likely that he could lose his title as soon as his second title defense (presumably against Dvalishvili). That is if he manages to get past 'Chito.'