MMA Fantasy: What if Michael Chandler had finished Charles Oliveira in the first round of their UFC 262 title fight?

America's Michael Chandler fought Brazil's Charles Oliveira for the vacant UFC lightweight title at UFC 262 in 2021. 'Iron' almost finished Oliveira in round one, knocking him down and unleashing a vicious ground-and-pound attack. However, 'do Bronx' survived, entered round two with renewed vigor, and knocked Chandler out to win the UFC lightweight title.

Oliveira successfully defended his title with a third-round submission win against Dustin Poirier in Dec. 2021. He then missed weight for his next fight, a scheduled title defense against Justin Gaethje in May 2022, and had to vacate the lightweight title. Though he beat Gaethje via first-round submission, he was ineligible to win the belt.

Following that, Oliveira fought Islam Makhachev for the vacant UFC lightweight title in Oct. 2022, a showdown Makhachev won via second-round submission. Presently, Makhachev possesses the coveted UFC lightweight title. Oliveira subsequently beat Beneil Dariush via first-round TKO in June 2023 and lost to Arman Tsarukyan via split decision in April 2024.

In the meantime, Michael Chandler competed thrice since his defeat against 'Do Bronx.' 'Iron' lost to Justin Gaethje via unanimous decision in Nov. 2021, beat Tony Ferguson via second-round KO in May 2022, and then lost to Dustin Poirier via third-round submission in Nov. 2022.

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What if Michael Chandler had finished Charles Oliveira in the first round of their UFC 262 title fight?

Michael Chandler came extremely close to stopping Charles Oliveira with his ground-and-pound onslaught in round one. The UFC lightweight landscape would've likely been vastly different had he secured that stoppage. Chandler would've gained tremendous confidence from the title victory and defended his title against either Dustin Poirier or Justin Gaethje.

With the championship confidence, 'Iron' would've employed a considerably smarter strategy against both Poirier and Gaethje, optimally using his wrestling to nullify Poirier's/Gaethje's KO power and technical striking prowess. Chandler would've bested Poirier and Gaethje via a late TKO stoppage on the mat or perhaps gone to the scorecards.

Moreover, Michael Chandler would've surely crossed paths with fellow wrestling savant Islam Makhachev, with their showdown probably transpiring in Abu Dhabi in Oct. 2022. 'Iron' has often suggested that he's one of the rare lightweights who boasts the grappling abilities to match that of Makhachev.

Chandler's dynamic American-style wrestling could've perfectly countered Makhachev's Dagestani-style Sambo wrestling. The only drawback for 'Iron' -- be it against Makhachev, Poirier, Gaethje, or anyone else -- is that he tends to get into firefights and inadvertently hand his opponent the advantage.

A decision win would be the best-case scenario for 'Iron', as Makhachev is incredibly durable. Assuming that Chandler got past him with the title intact, he'd have fought former UFC featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski twice. This is where things would've become truly interesting, as 'The Great' has a great (no pun intended) style to defeat Chandler.

Volkanovski outgunned multiple-time UFC featherweight title challenger Chad Mendes by second-round TKO, an elite fighter smaller in size but similar in style to Michael Chandler. It wouldn't be farfetched to say that 'The Great' would've similarly outmatched Chandler, whose proclivity for being drawn into firefights would've been his undoing yet again.

Presently, Chandler is set to fight MMA megastar Conor McGregor in a welterweight bout at UFC 303 (June 29, 2024).