Bo Nickal is good, but he isn't as good as he's made out to be: Scrutinizing his UFC 309 performance

Bo Nickal is one of the top prospects in MMA. At UFC 309, he faced Paul Craig in a middleweight bout that he was supposed to dominate. After all, United States president-elect Donald Trump was in attendance, and it was one of the bigger cards of the year.

Moreover, Nickal was given the privilege of a main card spot. While he won, he failed to deliver in almost every other way. His elite-level wrestling was nowhere to be seen. There was no finish, neither was there domination as Nickal claimed in his post-fight interview.

He spent most of the fight spamming overhand rights and failing to follow-up when he actually stunned Craig against the fence. While he's certainly skilled, he isn't nearly as good as he claims to be. Certainly not enough to 'destroy' Khamzat Chimaev like he often swears he will.

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Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig was a showcase of the former's limitations

When Bo Nickal and Paul Craig locked horns, it sucked the air out of the arena. The crowd even momentarily drowned the fight out with overrated chants aimed at the three-time NCAA Division I wrestling champion. There is good reason for this, given how his fight with Craig played out.

Nickal refused to shoot for a single takedown, even though strong wrestling and an elite-level top game has historically been the most effective neutralizer of offensive Brazilian jiu-jitsu off of the opponent's back. The fear was that Craig would submit him like he ufc-263" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-is-sponsored="false">did Jamahal Hill and Magomed Ankalaev, two top fighters.

Check out the fans chanting 'overrated' at Bo Nickal:

However, there are variables worth noting. Hill is no hyper-skilled mixed martial artist nor an elite grappler. He is a basic boxer with exceptional athleticism. He is highly effective, not highly skilled, otherwise he wouldn't frequently cross his own feet while striking: a no-no in kickboxing and boxing.

If he makes such mistakes in his own wheelhouse, one can only imagine the kinds of mistakes he makes when grappling. Then there is the case of Ankalaev. He was not outgrappeld by Craig. In fact, Ankalaev dominated most of the bout, outwrestling the Scotsman.

He succumbed to a submission in the very final instance due to complacency. However, his top control proved extremely effective throughout the bout. So unless Nickal has no defensive grappling on the mat and poor top control, both of which would be unbecoming for a wrestler of his caliber, he should have wrestled Craig.

Instead, the fans were treated to a widely-panned kickboxing bout between two of the most limited strikers at middleweight. Craig has no offensive boxing to speak of and spent the entire fight spamming low kicks and body kicks off the backfoot. Nickal failed to capitalize on the clearest of openings.

Check out Bo Nickal's UFC 309 win:

Kicking off the backfoot is not effective as the kicker can't plant their feet and load their hips to throw with any power. Furthermore, the kicker is often off-balanced. Yet, Nickal rarely tried to counterpunch Craig when the latter's kicking leg was airborne and only one foot was on the mat.

He could have easily upped his forward pressure to smother Craig's kicks, depriving the Scotsman of the time and space to throw his kicks even with minimal leverage and power. Due to Craig lacking power in his punches and nonexistent boxing, there was almost no threat Nickal would have faced had he done so.

Craig wouldn't have shot for any takedowns either, and he didn't. If he had, Nickal surely would have trusted his word-class wrestling to stuff takedowns from a relatively poor wrestler. Unfortunately, he did little but swing for overhand rights. Even when he rocked Craig, he froze and didn't follow up, opting to feint.

It's not as though Craig is some devastating counter-striker who would have sniped him on his way inside. It was a poor performance and low fight IQ-showcase from a fighter who thinks himself a future UFC champion.

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Analyzing Bo Nickal's other wins

Everyone else Bo Nickal has faced has been forgettable. He compared himself to Khamzat Chimaev, but the unbeaten Chechen has been fighting a murderer's row of elites since 2022, including a former welterweight title challenger in Gilbert Burns and an all-time great 170-pounder in Kamaru Usman.

He recently demolished Robert Whittaker, a former middleweight champion that not even Olympic freestyle wrestling silver medalist Yoel Romero could outwrestle. Nickal hasn't faced anyone comparable to the foes Chimaev has beaten recently with the exception of Paul Craig, who is comparable to Kevin Holland.

Check out Bo Nickal's win over Cody Brundage:

However, Chimaev annihilated Holland within a round, and Holland was on a two-fight win streak at the time. Craig, meanwhile, was 1-4 in his last five fights before facing Nickal. Before that, the All-American wrestler had defeated the then 10-5 Cody Brundage, who was surprisingly harder for him to beat than expected.

Nickal won and finished him, but didn't look as dominant as expected. Prior to that win, he had beaten a short-notice regional foe in Val Woodburn, who is currently winless in the UFC, and an over-the-hill Jamie Pickett, who was on a two-fight losing streak at the time and is now 13-11.

Nickal hasn't looked exceptional against anyone of note, and when he finally faced someone notable, even if unranked, he more than failed to live up to expectations.