UFC 257 probabilities: How likely is Poirier to beat McGregor by submission?

Modified Feb 24, 2021 18:17 GMT

What are Dustin Poirier's chances of winning his rematch with Conor McGregor at UFC 257 by submission according to five of the biggest bookies? What are McGregor's chances of winning via decision? Or Poirier via KO?

There are many possible outcomes that could happen once the UFC 257 main event on January 23 kicks off. However, some are much more likely to occur than others - and you can bet that the bookies know precisely what they are.

A Swedish website collected all the odds from multiple betting companies to define what outcomes are predominantly being put forward as the most likely to happen at UFC 257.

They calculated the odds offered by the bookies to get an average and then assessed that number against the margins that bookies take to show the fight's real valuation. Here they are converted into percentages for easier comprehension:

Get the latest updates on One Championship Rankings at Sportskeeda and more

Conor McGregor to win: 71.65%; Dustin Poirier to win: 28.35%.

McGregor to win by KO, TKO, or DQ: 50.02%; Poirier to win by KO, TKO or DQ: 13.34%.

Poirier to win by decision: 12.31%; McGregor to win by decision: 11.43%.

Poirier to win by submission: 8.89%; McGregor to win by submission: 4.0%.

All odds were calculated on January 19, 2021, by Thomas Mäkitalo for the UFC 257 bout between Conor McGregor and Dustin Poirier.

Here's the Dustin Poirier vs. Conor McGregor 2 PPV cold open 🤌 #UFC257 pic.twitter.com/leMJer0kgS
— Chamatkar Sandhu (@SandhuMMA) January 18, 2021

Expand Tweet

UFC 257: Who has a better record for each round in the main event?

If you wish to get even more specific to the probabilities of UFC 257, here is an in-depth comparison between Conor McGregor and Dustin Poirier's performances at each one of the five rounds.

Poirier has entered in the cage 33 times while McGregor only fought on 26 occasions. The Irishman has contested a five-rounder bout eight times, of which he has won seven.

McGregor is by far the favorite to win the fight during the first or second round, but things start to change the more the duel lingers. 67% of all of McGregor's wins came during the first round - including the one against Poirier in UFC 178.

While McGregor still has a slight advantage for the second round, things change drastically from the third onwards. Poirier has much more experience than the 'Notorious One' at this level of the fight. McGregor has only won twice after a bout entered the third round, while 'The Diamond' aggregates nine victories, including his last one against Dan Hooker.

What will be your call for the UFC 257 main event? Sound off in the comments.