What is the most likely route to victory for Alex Pereira against Israel Adesanya at UFC 281?

UFC 281 promotional poster [Images courtesy of @btsportufc on Twitter]
UFC 281 promotional poster [Images courtesy of @btsportufc on Twitter]

Alex Pereira has already beaten Israel Adesanya twice under kickboxing rules. However, the Brazilian is yet to face the UFC middleweight champion within professional MMA. Pereira will likely aim to impose his striking on the Nigerian, but how has he navigated his previous UFC tests?

Since joining the organization, 'Poatan' has managed to land 60% of his significant strikes, which is much better than Adesanya's accuracy. 'The Last Stylebender' has only landed 49% significant strikes but has absorbed fewer strikes on average during his UFC bouts.

Throughout all of his UFC outings, Alex Pereira has consistently targeted his opponents' bodies. Against both Andreas Michailidis and Sean Strickland, the Brazilian landed at least 40% of his significant strikes on his opponent's body. The remaining blows largely landed in the head area.

Only Bruno Silva managed to survive a body strike onslaught, with only 37% of Pereira's significant strikes landing on Silva's body.

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Alex Pereira doesn't aim many of his significant strikes at the legs of his opponents. It would be safe to assume that Israel Adesanya's body and head will be the main targets at UFC 281.

If the Brazilian does adopt this strategy, 'Poatan' could become dangerous in the latter stages of the fight. Body shots often have a lasting effect on the opponent's stamina.

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Has Alex Pereira won all of his UFC outings via stoppage?

Alex Pereira has managed to beat both Andreas Michailidis and Sean Strickland inside two rounds since joining the UFC. But Bruno Silva managed to survive against his fellow Brazilian.

Silva lost via unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev back in March this year. The bout took place over three rounds, but 'Poatan' was unable to finish the fight early and had to settle for a rare points victory.

Silva is the only fighter to have taken Pereira to the judges' scorecards in professional MMA. All of the Brazilian's opponents in Jungle Fights and LFA either beat the middleweight or lost via stoppage.

Quemuel Ottoni is the only man to beat 'Poatan' in professional MMA. The UFC fighter losing his debut against Ottoni at Jungle Fight 82 via submission in the third round.

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Edited by Ken Cameron
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