UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2 - Preview & Predictions

Excellent PPV card from Las Vegas, Nevada. In the main event is a rematch of last year’s thrilling Welterweight title fight between Tyron Woodley and Stephen Thompson that ended in a draw. In the co-main

In the co-main event, we have an interim Lightweight title fight between Khabib Nurmagomedov and Tony Ferguson, which is one of the most anticipated fights in the sport. The card features Heavyweight slugfests, exciting prospects and fun stylistic match-ups, this is the strongest UFC PPV of the year so far by far.

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Main Card

Main Event: Tyron Woodley vs. Stephen Thompson

Woodley and Thompson in action in their first fight

UFC Welterweight Champion Tyron Woodley took the title from Robbie Lawler with a first round knockout in July 2016 and then fought Thompson to a draw at UFC 205. Woodley made his name in Strikeforce after an impressive collegiate wrestling career.

Woodley’s game is very focused, he knows what he wants to do and how to do it, and he rarely deviates from his plan. He possesses incredible speed and power and when striking he likes to employ a patient game with plenty of feints, waiting for the perfect time to explode with his signature right hand.

His speed in closing the distance is extraordinary and when he lands that right hand clean, it can knock anybody out.

While he has used a more striking-based approach recently, we must not forget Woodley’s wrestling prowess, that same speed and power translates here perfectly, as he can close the distance and drive through on a double leg before his opponent has a chance to react, he also frequently looks to catch his opponent’s kicks and secure takedowns that way.

One weakness in Woodley’s game is his tendency to get backed up to the fence, he can be careless with his positioning in that sense and put himself in danger. In the first fight he displayed all of these qualities, he took Thompson down off a kick in the second round, he lost rounds due to inactivity and being backed up to the fence, and he nailed Thompson with a fight-changing right hand.

Stephen Thompson comes from a karate background which gives him a rather unique style. Thompson fights with a sideways stance and bounces in and out, he likes to stay on the outside throwing his wide array of front, side and round kicks to legs, body and head and when the opportunity presents itself, he will dart into the pocket and fire off a blistering combination.

While Thompson is not much of a grappler, he has very sturdy takedown defence, as evidenced in his fight with former champion Johny Hendricks who was unable to get him down and was made to pay for it.

I expect this fight to play out in a manner similar to the first fight. Thompson is the more active striker, and if a round takes place standing and if Woodley doesn’t land a big shot, expect Thompson to win the round, but that is too many if’s for my liking.

Woodley’s wrestling skills and his striking power are tough to handle for five rounds. Woodley is an incredibly smart fighter, he has found out how to maximise his skillset and I expect him to have made the more salient adjustments since the first fight.

Prediction: Tyron Woodley via Decision

Co-Main Event: Tony Ferguson vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov

El Cucuy seems to be enjoying himself at media day, will he walk away with the interim belt?

One of the most interesting fights on the card, the undefeated Khabib is 8-0 in the UFC and Tony Ferguson is 12-1 in the UFC and on a nine-fight win streak.

Khabib is one of the best grapplers in MMA with a phenomenal wrestling game. He chains together an array of different takedowns that nobody has been able to deal with as of yet. Once on top, he is a master of control and can make passing guard and delivering thunderous ground and pound look effortless.

When standing he has trouble at range but can burst into the pocket with big uppercuts and hooks to set up his takedowns.

Tony Ferguson is an extremely diverse and active striker, he uses his jab consistently and sets a very high pace and he has such variety in his attack that he is very hard to stop once he gets into his rhythm.

Ferguson is a good defensive wrestler and has a good submission game, especially from the front headlock position, so expect to see him look for that when defending Khabib‘s takedowns from if he gets a chance.

Khabib has never gone five rounds before, so we don’t know if his aggressive game will work over five rounds, but we have seen five rounds of cardio from Ferguson. Ferguson’s reach advantage will be a huge problem for Khabib, who will desperately need to get inside.

Ferguson also has very good wrestling himself, but I believe this is where Khabib will win the fight. Khabib should be able to get Ferguson down and put enough of a beating on him to win a very close fight.

Prediction: Khabib Nurmagomedov via Decision

Rashad Evans vs. Daniel Kelly

Former Light Heavyweight Champion Evans is making his Middleweight debut here. At his best, he is a smooth wrestler who is light on his feet but age and injuries have diminished Evans, he has only fought twice since 2013 and lost both.

Kelly is a judoka, so as you would expect he is very strong in the clinch, where he throws hard knees to set up his throws and trips and once he gets the fight to the ground he has hard ground and pound.

While Evan’s has deteriorated since his prime due to injuries, Kelly is no spring chicken either at 39 years old. I think Evan’s quality will show in the fight and he will have the edge in the grappling department.

Prediction: Rashad Evans via Decision

David Teymur vs. Lando Vannata

Vannata gave Tony Ferguson a lot of trouble in his UFC debut

Fun match-up here between good strikers. Teymur is a good kickboxer with a great jab and hard left kick. Vannata has a much more unusual and unorthodox style. Vannata gave Tony Ferguson a lot of trouble in his UFC debut with his funky movement and creative shot selection.

Vannata followed that up with a spinning wheel kick win in his next fight, so Teymur will have to watch out for wild shots such as that. As far as grappling, I think Vannata would have an advantage there and that may end up being the difference in what should be an exciting fight.

Prediction: Lando Vannata via Decision

Mark Hunt vs. Alistair Overeem

We start the main card with a blockbuster!

Two experienced Heavyweights in need of a win. Lately, Overeem has been employing a patient outside striking game, using his jab and his kicks to judge range and occasionally leaping in with a combination.

Hunt packs huge power in his punches but is very patient and waits for the perfect opportunity to throw his power shots. This is due to factors such as his height disadvantage, and his suspect gas tank.

Overeem has had problems taking a shot in recent years, and Mark Hunt is the last person you want to be facing if you have that problem. He has a good chance due to his ability to stick and move on the outside, but ultimately I think Hunt will find his chin.

Prediction: Mark Hunt via Knockout

Preliminary Card

Luis Henrique vs. Marcin Tybura

This encounter promises some heavy hitting!

Henrique is an interesting prospect at heavyweight, but he has a tough night ahead of him against Poland’s Marcin Tybura. Henrique is a good striker, who moves well for his size and has good power, and his submission game has shined so far in his UFC career, with both of his wins coming via submission.

Even then I have to favour Tybura who has a very dangerous kicking game and is well rounded. He has also faced better competition than Henrique.

Prediction: Marcin Tybura via Knockout

Mirsad Bektic vs. Darren Elkins

Bektic is a top prospect, his wrestling ability combined with his athleticism have brought him to an 11-0 record and he would be higher up the division if he had not had such trouble with injuries in the last few years.

Elkins is grinding type of grappler and while it is a good test for Bektic, I expect his powerful grappling will give him the edge, and he has been improving steadily in the striking, where he may also have an advantage.

Prediction: Mirsad Bektic via Decision

Iuri Alcantara vs. Luke Sanders

Alcantara has been around a long time but picked up a win against Brad Pickett last time out to show he still had it. Alcantara is quite well-rounded, he is light on his feet when striking with a decent kicking game and is very dangerous if he gets the fight to the ground.

Sanders is another hot prospect, he won his UFC debut at Featherweight but is fighting at Bantamweight here, which suits him better. Sanders is also well-rounded but I think his wrestling is what gives him the edge here.

Prediction: Luke Sanders via Decision

Mark Godbeer vs. Daniel Spitz

Very tough to fight to call between two hard-hitting Heavyweights. Spitz looks like he has something, but he hasn’t fought great competition so it is hard to judge how good he is. Godbeer, though, fought decent competition in BAMMA and did well, although he fell short in his UFC debut.

This could go either way, but I will go with the experience of Godbeer.

Prediction: Mark Godbeer via Knockout

Fight Pass Prelims

Paul Craig vs. Tyson Pedro

This could be a great fight between two talented young Light Heavyweights. Pedro is very inexperienced but he was impressive in his UFC debut, he is exceptionally athletic and big for the division.

While he is a good striker, his main strength may be his takedown game. Craig is another big Light Heavyweight, he is lanky and uses this to his advantage on the ground by using his long jab and on the ground by using those long limbs to attack submissions.

Very tough fight to call, but I give a slight edge to Pedro.

Prediction: Tyson Pedro via knockout

Amanda Cooper vs. Cynthia Calvillo

Two inexperienced Strawweights do battle here, it could turn into a fun and entertaining scrap. Cooper has a small advantage in the striking but Calvillo seems to be the stronger grappler.

Again could go either way but I lean towards the newcomer Calvillo

Prediction: Cynthia Calvillo via Decision

Albert Morales vs. Andre Soukhamthath

Soukhamthath is making his UFC debut here. He is a rangy Bantamweight, who likes to use his jab and kicks from the outside. Morales is the more aggressive striker here for sure and that should get him the victory. Especially if it goes to the judges but with his power, he could get the finish.